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The Obama Speculation Continues

Former political editor of the Chicago Sun-Times James L. Merriner writes the cover story on Barack Obama for this month's issue of Chicago Magazine that carries the following hook: "A run for president? A VP draft? He says no. But could it happen?"

The article is long and quite good, but it's not online, so I'll just have to clip and enter some of the choicest quotes.  Merriner interviewed a number of Obama supporters and strategists on both sides of the aisle to get their impressions of the factors swirling around the junior Senator from Illinois and 2008. 

One camp of Obama supporters is urging him to skip a White House bid in '08, advising him to "pace himself" and "wait his turn." But Merriner points out:

"In fact, most of the successful Democratic nominees of recent history did not "wait their turn" but skipped over a generation - John F. Kennedy in 1960, Jimmy Carter in 1976, Bill Clinton in 1992.  Obama will be 47 in 2008; Clinton was 46 when elected, Kennedy 43."

Others are urging Obama to step up in 2008 and take advantage of what could be his best, and perhaps only opportunity. Again, Merriner:

"Some of Obama's supporters worry that he might miss his best chance by sitting out 2008.  Here's the hypothetical math: if another Democratic nominee wins and serves two terms, by then it's 2016, when, presumably, the incumbent vice president would seek the presidential nod.  Where would that leave Obama? He won't be a megastar forever."

Obama understands the importance timing and circumstance play in determining the fate of those who run for high office, telling Merriner, "Politics is fickle and dependent on a lot of things that have nothing to do with the merits of the candidate." This will undoubtedly be on his mind if in 2008 he's faced with the choice of accepting an offer to be vice president.

One issue Obama isn't worried about is his skin color.  Asked by Merriner whether the country would be ready to elect an African-American president, Obama says "yes" and then adds:

"If I were to run, the issue would not be my race, I think.  People would ask about my inexperience or youth, is he too liberal - there would be a whole host of questions there.  But I'm very confident I could campaign anywhere."

The best line in the piece comes from Vernon Jordan, who offered some classic words of wisdom amid all the political chatter: "I am too old and too smart to speculate about 2008. If I were in charge of the world, the first thing I would do is round up all the political consultants in the city square and shoot them."