The Moment of Truth
Floor debate on Sam Alito begins today. As of right now, Alito has the public support of 50 Republicans and 1 Democrat: Senator Ben Nelson of Nebraska. Twenty-three Democrats plus Jim Jeffords remain publicly undecided as well as 5 Republicans: Lamar Alexander, Lincoln Chafee, Susan Collins, Olympia Snowe, and Ted Stevens.
Leon at RedState has the skinny on how things will proceed:
The scuttlebutt at this juncture is that Frist will open up the floor for debate on Alito immediately, and pretty much allow the Democrats to bloviate about Vanguard uninterrupted. He will even hold the floor of the Senate open overnight, if the Democrats are so inclined to debate. However, first thing Thursday morning, there will be a cloture vote, and if it fails, the sparks will fly postehaste. Bush has called upon Frist to have Alito seated before the SOTU, and Frist intends to see it done.
Democrats have all but conceded Alito's nomination and a filibuster seems almost completely out of the question. This is all about delivering a moral victory to the base in the short term (Harry Reid: ''I think it sends a message to the American people that this guy is not King George, he's President George'') and then hoping to parlay Alito's rulings this year into an election issue in November:
Jonathan Turley, professor of law at George Washington University Law School and an outspoken opponent of Alito, said Alito’s hard-right stance — specifically on abortion and presidential power — would remind voters in November of his confirmation, making him “the political gift that keeps on giving” for Democrats.
The obvious problem with this strategy is that Democrats have tried their best to make the SCOTUS an issue in past elections but it simply hasn't worked. Republicans, on the other hand, keep winning elections with the federal judiciary as one of their animating principles. Maybe the addition of Justice Alito changes this equation, maybe it doesn't. The best bet for Democrats this election year is not going to be producing more demagoguery of Alito, but producing new ideas.

