Jeff Jones at Gallup takes a look at the kind of boost President Bush might expect to receive from the State of the Union tonight with the conclusion that typically Presidents receive little to no bump of consequence.

Historical Gallup findings dating back to President Jimmy Carter's administration indicate that presidents rarely are able to increase their popularity following a State of the Union address. George W. Bush may have done so temporarily with his speech last year, but his public standing was largely unchanged following his three prior State of the Union addresses....

In the 24 cases shown here, there are 10 instances in which a president's post-State of the Union approval rating was higher than his rating before the speech, 12 when it was lower, and 2 when there was no change.

Mark Blumenthal has a more thorough analysis on the Gallup track record and historical SOTU bounces over at Mystery Pollster.

Bottom line, I wouldn’t expect Bush’s address to have any meaningful change in the President’s approval three weeks from now. The latest RealClearPolitics Poll Average of 9 polls taken over the last 10 days has his job approval at 42.9%. If that number is materially higher or lower 3-4 weeks from now it will most likely be for reasons unrelated to tonight's State of the Union Address.