As usual Thomas Sowell has an excellent column on Ken Blackwell’s campaign for Governor in Ohio, the African-American vote and Republicans. While it is common knowledge that Democrats overwhelmingly win the black vote in the U.S., what is less commonly known is the fact that the Democrats haven’t won a majority of the white vote in a presidential election in over 40 years. In a country that is 2/3rds white (with a voting demographic that is over 70% white) that is what you would call a political handicap.

Under Ken Mehlman’s leadership the GOP is making an aggressive effort to make a dent in the Democrats' huge margin with African-American voters. One of the key reasons Democrats are able to compete nationally (and in many states) is the 90% margins they roll up with black voters. Sowell is dead on when he writes:

If Republicans can get just a fourth or a fifth of the black vote nationwide, that can shift the balance of power decisively in their favor.

The Democrats’ fear of erosion in their rock solid African-American support is why they increasingly ratchet up racial rhetoric as election day approaches. Whether it is church burnings or the infamous NAACP ad accusing Bush of lynching James Byrd, Democrats increasingly have to push harder and harder to sustain that 90% result. There is no question the Katrina images and racial politics will be ruthlessly exploited this fall by Democrats looking to max out their African-American returns. 

The bigger problem for the Democrats is they are tapped out at 90%-93% of the black vote. They’re not going to get 98% of the vote not withstanding all of the media attention a post-Katrina NBC/WSJ poll received that suggested a 2% African-American approval rating for President Bush.

The troublesome reality for Democrats is in the coming elections that 90% is a lot more likely to move to 70%-85%, as opposed to moving up to 95%-98%. And that is a big problem for Democrats. Which is why candidates like Ken Blackwell, Lynn Swan and Michael Steele are enormous threats to Democratic election prospects in the next 10-20 years. Those three races in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Maryland could have a major, far-reaching effect in American politics and are worth paying a close attention to as 2006 progresses.