Today will give a much better sense than yesterday of the impending answer to that question.  Democrats will be ready to take their best shot at Alito right from the start of the hearings this morning, and they will press him aggressively all day long.

Right now the conventional wisdom is that this is Alito's vote to lose.  Adam Nagourney writes in The New York Times this morning that, "Republicans and some Democrats expressed little doubt that Judge Alito would survive even a withering interrogation and be confirmed."

In the Washington Post, Dan Balz tries to explain why the Alito nomination hasn't lived up to the expectations of activists - at least so far:

But on this nomination, as with Roberts's, there has been a clear disconnect between the zeal of activists and the detachment of the general public. Tim Hibbits, an Oregon-based pollster, said the Alito nomination falls low on the public's list of priorities. "With the exception of highly energized base voters, it's not something that's engaged people," he said. [snip]

Because of the implications of President Bush's clear desire to move the court in a more conservative direction, many activists have predicted a clash this year akin to those that occurred over the nominations of Robert H. Bork and Clarence Thomas -- Bork's heavily freighted in ideology and Thomas's overwhelmed by accusations of sexual harassment.

It has not happened. One reason may be because the public considers these nominees differently than do the ideologues or both sides, looking at experience and demeanor more than at ideology. Or it may be because Alito's nomination has been overshadowed by more compelling issues, such as Iraq, the cost of home heating oil and natural gas or lobbyist Jack Abramoff's plea bargain. Whatever the reason, the public has been slow to engage.

Balz goes on to cite the recent Washington Post poll results showing 76% of Republicans, 40% of Democrats and 47% of Independents currently supporting Alito's confirmation (53% support overall).

These numbers don't preclude Democrats launching a filibuster, but they certainly make it more difficult to justify to the public. Blocking a nominee with less than majority support would be much easier and carry much less risk, which is why the Democrats' main goal over the next couple of days is to try and drive Alito's negative ratings through the roof. (This isn't going to be accomplished by a discussion of obscure Constitutional issues but by personal attacks, hence the totally fabricated smear by Ted Kennedy yesterday about Alito being a racist.)

The odds of a filibuster will rise or fall based on the success Democrats have in tarnishing Alito today, and that, in turn, will depend to a large degree on how Alito handles himself. As Andrew Kohut said in the Balz article, " "You're going to have to really get some significant news out of these hearings to move the needle in a negative way."

Democrats are well aware of this, which is why today's session will be crucial to determining whether a filibuster is in the offing. Most think it is unlikely Democrats will get enough of what they need from these hearings to justify the unprecedented step of blocking a Supreme Court nominee with majority support. Then again, as John suggested yesterday, Democrats may be inclined to move ahead anyway and force the GOP to try and invoke the nuclear option or risk demoralizing their left-wing base at the beginning of an important election year.