The Governor's race in Virginia is coming down to the wire. Each side brought in their big guns yesterday, President Bush was with Kilgore and Kaine had the current Gov. Mark Warner by his side.

Mason-Dixon has had this a 1-2 point race since July, and in talking to Brad Coker after his final poll showing Kaine 45%, Kilgore 44%, Potts 4%; he still calls this a 1-2 point race with the edge now to Kaine.

Since Labor Day we have seen polls with Kilgore ahead 7 and just yesterday Survey USA had a poll with Kaine up 9. (Survey USA's final poll had Kaine ahead 5, with their Monday only data showing the race tied.)

The trend in this race over the final month clearly favors Kaine and given the current national political backdrop Kilgore is not likely to get the same boost that a Republican would normally expect in Virginia.

The final RCP Average in this race gives Kaine a three point lead, with the independent Potts drawing 3%. Kilgore supporters can look to few factors that might give their guy some hope:

1) In 2004 several polls at the end had Kerry within 4-5 points of Bush, including Survey USA's final poll which had Bush ahead only 4. Kerry lost Virginia by over 8 points.

2) Kilgore is from the Southwestern part of the state, which is a part of Virginia a Democrat usually carries when they win statewide. Kaine is unlikely to carry that part of the state.

3) Virginia is a red state.

In the end, I suspect Kaine's momentum over the last month, President Bush's current problems and the 3-4% Potts is likely to draw will all combine to be enough to get Kaine over the top.