Ever since Miers withdrew and the President promptly nominated Judge Alito I felt the likelihood for a filibuster was rather high, given that the Democrats were in a mood to fight and the only way they could really fight, would be to filibuster.

I will concede that after Alito's first meetings with Senators on the Hill, and then Senator Biden's comment last week on ABC's "This Week" that Democrats should commit to a vote, one had to figure that the filibuster odds were getting rather small.

However, yesterday's editorial in the New York Times and the Democratic Chairman's appearance on Meet the Press reaffirms my belief that a serious filibuster attempt is at least a 50-50 bet. From the Times editorial:

Judge Samuel Alito has been working hard to win over moderate Democratic senators. But just as it would be irresponsible to reject his nomination to the Supreme Court without giving him a full hearing, it is unwise to embrace it - or rule out the possibility of a filibuster - until more is known.

The Alito nomination is a defining moment for the country, and for the Democratic Party. Given the sharp divisions on the court, the next justice could decide the scope of reproductive freedom, civil rights and civil liberties, and environmental and workplace protections that Americans will live with for years. Although many questions remain to be answered, there is reason to believe that Judge Alito could do significant damage to values Democrats have long stood for.

Conservative Republicans demonstrated that they have a clear idea of what they want for the Supreme Court. They proved that once again with their insurrection against Harriet Miers. Now Democratic senators have to show their supporters that they are no less willing to fight for their vision.......

The Alito nomination comes at a critical moment for the Democratic Party. With President Bush's poll numbers plummeting, Democrats are finding a new optimism about their chances in 2006 and 2008. But to capitalize on the Republicans' weakness, the party needs to show that it has an alternative vision for the country. As the Democrats refine their message for next year's elections, the first thing they need to be able to say to the American people is that they did not sit by idly while the far right took over the Supreme Court and began dismantling fundamental rights and freedoms.

And then Howard Dean on Meet the Press:

MR. RUSSERT:  The Supreme Court...
DR. DEAN:  Yes.
MR. RUSSERT:  ...the president has nominated Sam Alito to the Supreme Court. Should the Democrats in the Senate--there's only 45 of them, but if they stayed together as a block...
DR. DEAN:  Right.
MR. RUSSERT:  ...they could filibuster and prevent Judge Alito from going to the Supreme Court.  Should they?
DR. DEAN:  I must say I rarely read editorials and I rarely agree with the ones I read.  But The New York Times ran an editorial today which I think is very instructive for the Democratic Party.  This could be a defining moment. Judge Alito is a hard-working man, a good family man, but his opinions are well outside the mainstream of American public opinion.  He condones a strip-search of a 10-year-old when the police had no such warrant or indication to do so.  He condoned the crafting of an all-white jury to hear a black defendant's case by a prosecutor.  He condoned the states not having to listen to the Family Medical Leave Act.  He condoned government interference in private family matters and family decision- making.  This is well outside the mainstream of where Americans are.  I think the Democrats are going to have to think long and hard as the hearings progress about whether we should support him.  There's some grave questions about him, and I do hope that they will stick together.

This morning it seems pretty clear to me where the NY Times and the Chairman of the Democratic Party are heading in regards to an Alito filibuster.

Interestingly, I think the determining factor on whether there will be a filibuster is the President's Job Approval. If Bush continues to get beat up and his poll numbers stay in the 30's or fall lower, I suspect the Democrats might have the political wisdom to just let the President stew in his world of hurt and not provide an opportunity to get the conservative base energized with a filibuster.

However, if the President's counterattack on the war begins to staunch the bleeding and his poll numbers stabilize and get back over 40%, I don't know that the liberal base will allow for the Democrats to just sit back and let Alito get on the court without a serious fight. That means a filibuster.

Given that I feel the President's poll numbers are in the process of bottoming (Rasmussen has shown a four-point bounce over the last week {Late Update: today's Rasmussen dropped 3 pts}) I think the odds of a serious filibuster attempt are very real. The delay in the hearings until January will provide more than enough time for the Democrats to craft a strategy and begin the public process of "questioning" whether Alito should take O'Connor's swing seat.

Yesterday was a clear warning to the White House and the Senate GOP. They would be well advised to take notice.