Corzine Stumbling To The Finish
This one has gotten ugly. Corzine's affair with Carla Katz, head of New Jersey's largest public employee union, is well documented, as is the $470,000 "loan" to her which Corzine eventually forgave.
But on the heels of a devastating quote from Corzine's ex-wife Joanne appearing in the New York Times last week that the Forrester campaign quickly turned into a television ad ("Jon did let his family down and he'll probably let New Jersey down, too") new rumors surfaced involving Corzine, a staffer, and an abortion. The Corzine camp fired back with a rumor that Forrester also has been involved in an extra-marital affair, something Forrester flatly denies.
Adding to his woes, Corzine stumbled in the final debate Saturday night when asked a question about lowering the drinking age in New Jersey. Corzine was unaware the legal age in the state is 21, and he apologized after the debate for "being unprepared" and "making a mistake."
Two new polls out this morning show that while Corzine is fading down the stretch, the demographics in New Jersey might be too much of an advantage for Forrester to overcome:
Quinnipiac has Corzine with a 7-point lead (52-45) in their final poll allocating leaners. Republicans back Forrester 90-9, Dems back Corzine 90-9, and Forrester is winning independents 49-46.
Scott Rasmussen just released a poll showing Corzine's lead shrinking to 5 points over Forrester (44-39), down from 9 points two weeks ago. Normally, getting only 44% in a final poll while registering a favorability rating of only 36% would mean certain death for a candidate. Not in New Jersey. Despite all the bad news for Corzine, Forrester remains stuck at 40% or lower in the Rasmussen poll with a favorability rating of 37%.
The latest RCP Average stands at Corzine +6.4 Get all the late breaking news on this race on the RCP Election 2005 NJ Gov Race Page.
UPDATE: SurveyUSA out with a new poll showing Corzine's lead shrinking to six points from nine. From the analysis:
In the past 2 weeks, Corzine has dropped 12 points among women, down from a 20-point lead on 10/25/05 to an 8-point lead today. 2 weeks ago, Corzine trailed by 2 among men; today he's up by 5. Among Independents, Forrester had trailed by 15, now by 2.

