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Bush's Best Week in Two Months

Todd Purdum leads off the NY Times' front page news analysis:

George W. Bush has been in the White House for 248 weeks, through a terrorist attack, two wars and a bruising re-election. But it seems safe to say that he has never had a worse political week than this one - and it is not over yet.

This may be the MSM wisdom on the state of the Bush White House and how bad this week has been for the President, but it completely misunderstands the political dynamics at play. In reality, the worst week the President has had since reelection was three weeks ago when he nominated Harriet Miers to the Supreme Court. The core of George W. Bush's political strength has always been the unified support of his conservative base. That energized base is one of the core reasons the President was able to win reelection with 51% of the vote and pick up seats in Congress in both 2002 and 2004.

With one seriously misguided decision the foundations of that support were starting to crumble.

It is not as if conservatives don't have disagreements with this White House, they certainly do; from the inability to control spending, to the unwillingness to seriously address the lawlessness on our border. But tax cuts, national security and the courts were always big agenda items where the President and his base were on the same page. The Miers nomination needlessly kicked out a key leg of that support.

His father kicked out the tax leg in his Presidency, laying the seeds for his ultimate defeat in 1992 to Bill Clinton. Had the Miers nomination been pushed through, a disastrous 2006 for the GOP would almost have been guaranteed.

With Miers doing the President an enormous favor and gracefully bowing out under the cover of documents and presidential prerogative, the President is now poised to reestablish control. Claims that this has divided Republicans are equally misguided, if the President follows through with an A+ nominee in the mold of Roberts or more recently Bernanke for the FED, Republicans will rally hard and enthusiastically around Bush.

The politics of this is very simple to distill: 24 hours ago liberals were giddy in anticipation of multiple indictments and what other early Christmas presents the Special Prosecutor might bring. Meanwhile, conservatives were despondent over the prospect of having to beat up on a President they want to support, all because of the unfortunate Miers nomination.

With the announcement of Miers' withdrawal everything changed. Conservatives are the happiest and most energized they have been in months. Liberals like Chuck Schumer and Ted Kennedy have a sick feeling in their stomach, because they realize the conservative suicide pact has been called off and the Senate is likely to get a rock solid appointment who is anathema to everything they believe - and they know there is little they can do to stop that person from getting on the court.