From the always enlightening Barone Blog:

My guess is that the left Democrats are not going to be able to get the 41 votes they need for a filibuster. Sens. Ben Nelson of Nebraska and Kent Conrad of North Dakota, both up for re-election next year in solidly Republican states, voted for Roberts. So did Byron Dorgan of North Dakota and Max Baucus of Montana. They're not likely filibusterers. Bill Nelson of Florida, up for re-election next year, would take some political risks by opposing him. That's five—enough to defeat a filibuster right there. When you add to that the senators listed above from states with large numbers of Italian-Americans, many of whom in my judgment will be lukewarm at best about joining a filibuster, you can see why I think Schumer and company will not get up the head of steam they need.

I think whether Barone turns out to be right or not depends on the first forty-eight to seventy-two hours of the life of this nomination. If the Dems can get even a little bit of traction on Alito early it will feed a sense of confidence and momentum on the part of the Schumer-Kennedy-Durbin crowd that could influence other members of the caucus. The Democrats feel Bush is weak and I suspect the red-staters up for re-election fear a confrontation with this president over a conservative judicial pick far less today than they did even six weeks ago.

Democrats who were eager to strike early and get the upper hand on Alito have to be lamenting this politically tone deaf hatchet job that backfired. If the public relations battle over this nomination is to be won or lost in the first few news cycles, the anti-Alito forces got routed today.