Jonathan Martin catches a new message perhaps emerging from McCain circles: The benefits of divided government.

Appearing on Fox News Sunday, campaign manager Rick Davis said:

Do we really believe that the American public is going to feel safe by having both the head of the Congress and the head of the White House from the same party that has had so many challenges with the way they've run Washington over the last couple of years?

Appearing next, Gov. Tim Pawlenty sounded the same theme:

"I don't think the country is going to like the Democratic party running the table on taxes, on education, on health care and have kind of the liberal, unchecked, imbalanced approach to all of those issues," Pawlenty said. "It's going to be bad for the country. I think having John McCain as president to balance that out and be able to work across the aisle as he has throughout his career to get things done would be a good compromise, a good balance."

If coordinated, as Martin says these comments "almost certainly" are, then we can probably expect an ad in the not-too-distant-future featuring prominently Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid as the faces of an Obama administration. It could have an impact, since Congress' approval ratings are also in the tank, except that Dems hold a 10-point advantage in the generic Congressional vote and no one thinks they won't pick up seats in both chambers.

Well, one prognosticator McClatchy reporter Steven Thomma spoke to thinks so, and the others are all but calling this one over:

Former Reagan political adviser Ed Rollins likened today's landscape to that in 1980, when voters were angry at President Jimmy Carter and the Democrats and turned to Reagan in droves once they felt comfortable with the idea of him as president.

"Barack has met the threshold," Rollins said. "Once Reagan met the threshold, people wanted to get rid of Carter and they did in a landslide. This is going to turn into a landslide."

...

"The fundamentals have come together almost perfectly and at just the right moment for the Democrats," said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. "It could hardly look better for the Democrats."

"This election right now is exclusively about economy," said independent analyst Charlie Cook. "Despite the fact that the House and Senate are in Democratic hands, Republicans seem to have total ownership of the problem. Fair or not, it's true."

As Kyle mentioned in his 10/10 Recap, Virginia has moved into Lean Obama territory, putting him above 270 on the RCP Electoral Map.

Add to this the doom-and-gloom coming from Republicans and there's a real sense that this one is slipping quickly away from McCain.

Of course there's a lot of campaigning left. Polls may tighten, the CW could shift yet again, leading to a very close election. But the trajectory of the race doesn't look good for McCain.

At a McCain rally in Davenport, IA, yesterday, while delivering the invocation, Arnold Conrad, a minister, said:

There are millions of people around this world praying to their god -- whether it's Hindu, Buddha, Allah -- that [Obama] wins, for a variety of reasons. And Lord, I pray that you will guard your own reputation, because they're going to think that their God is bigger than you, if that happens. So I pray that you will step forward and honor your own name with all that happens between now and election day.

Which is the kind of thing that McCain, already trying to clamp down criticism of Obama at his rallies, doesn't need. The campaign released this statement, distancing itself from Conrad's comments:

While we understand the important role that faith plays in informing the votes of Iowans, questions about the religious background of the candidates only serve to distract from the real questions in this race about Barack Obama's judgment, policies and readiness to lead as commander in chief.

Via Jonathan Martin, Rep. John Lewis (D-GA) issued this statement today:

"What I am seeing reminds me too much of another destructive period in American history," Lewis said in a statement issued today. "Sen. McCain and Gov. Palin are sowing the seeds of hatred and division, and there is no need for this hostility in our political discourse." ...

"George Wallace never threw a bomb," Lewis noted. "He never fired a gun, but he created the climate and the conditions that encouraged vicious attacks against innocent Americans who were simply trying to exercise their constitutional rights. Because of this atmosphere of hate, four little girls were killed on Sunday morning when a church was bombed in Birmingham, Alabama."

To which McCain responded in a statement:

"Congressman John Lewis' comments represent a character attack against Governor Sarah Palin and me that is shocking and beyond the pale. The notion that legitimate criticism of Senator Obama's record and positions could be compared to Governor George Wallace, his segregationist policies and the violence he provoked is unacceptable and has no place in this campaign. I am saddened that John Lewis, a man I've always admired, would make such a brazen and baseless attack on my character and the character of the thousands of hardworking Americans who come to our events to cheer for the kind of reform that will put America on the right track.

"I call on Senator Obama to immediately and personally repudiate these outrageous and divisive comments that are so clearly designed to shut down debate 24 days before the election. Our country must return to the important debate about the path forward for America."

UPDATE: Obama spokesman Bill Burton has issued this statement:

"Senator Obama does not believe that John McCain or his policy criticism is in any way comparable to George Wallace or his segregationist policies. But John Lewis was right to condemn some of the hateful rhetoric that John McCain himself personally rebuked just last night, as well as the baseless and profoundly irresponsible charges from his own running mate that the Democratic nominee for President of the United States 'pals around with terrorists.' As Barack Obama has said himself, the last thing we need from either party is the kind of angry, divisive rhetoric that tears us apart at a time of crisis when we desperately need to come together. That is the kind of campaign Senator Obama will continue to run in the weeks ahead."

Following the Bush administration's removal of North Korea from the list of state sponsors of terrorism, the candidates released the following statements.

McCain:

"Reports indicate that the administration may soon remove North Korea from the list of state sponsors of terrorism. I have previously said that I would not support the easing of sanctions North Korea unless the United States is able to fully verify the nuclear declaration Pyongyang submitted on June 26. It is not clear that the latest verification arrangement will enable us to do so.

"I am also concerned that this latest agreement appears to have been reached between Washington and Pyongyang and only then discussed with our Asian allies in an effort to garner their support. Diplomacy is a critical tool in ending the North Korean nuclear weapons program, and it must involve our closest partners in Northeast Asia. While we conduct this diplomacy, we must keep our goal in sight -- the verifiable denuclearization of North Korea -- and avoid reaching for agreement for its own sake, particularly if it leaves critical verification issues unaddressed. I am also concerned that recent negotiations appear not to have addressed the issue of North Korean abductions of Japanese citizens, a serious omission and directly relevant to any decision about North Korea's support for terrorist activities.

'As this process moves forward, I expect the administration to explain exactly how this new verification agreement advances American interests and those of our allies before I will be able to support any decision to remove North Korea from the list of state sponsors of terrorism."

Obama:

North Korea's agreement to these verification measures is a modest step forward in dismantling its nuclear weapons programs. President Bush's decision to remove North Korea from the list of state sponsors of terrorism is an appropriate response, as long as there is a clear understanding that if North Korea fails to follow through there will be immediate consequences. It is now essential that North Korea halt all efforts to reassemble its nuclear facilities, place them back under IAEA supervision, and cooperate fully with the international community to complete the disablement of the Yongbyon facilities and to implement a robust verification mechanism to confirm the accuracy of its nuclear declaration.

The last eight years have demonstrated the necessity of confronting the threat from North Korea through aggressive, sustained, and direct bilateral and multilateral diplomacy. Too often, there has been a failure to effectively engage our partners throughout this effort. We must dramatically improve coordination with our allies Japan and South Korea, as well as with China and Russia, particularly as we ensure that any agreement reached on verification is fully implemented.

If North Korea refuses to permit robust verification, we should lead all members of the Six Party talks in suspending energy assistance, re-imposing sanctions that have recently been waived, and considering new restrictions. Our objective remains the complete and verifiable elimination of North Korea's nuclear weapons programs. This must include getting clarity on North Korea's efforts to enrich uranium and its proliferation of nuclear technology abroad.

Looking ahead, North Korea must also resolve all questions about the abduction of Japanese and South Korean citizens, and of the Reverend Kim Dong-Shik. I urge the Bush Administration to continue to use our diplomatic and economic leverage to press North Korea to cooperate fully with Tokyo, Seoul and Washington on these matters.

The Six Party Talks offer North Korea a clear choice. If North Korea abandons its nuclear weapons programs, there will be meaningful incentives. If it refuses, it faces a future of political and economic isolation.

This is where the national daily tracking polls stand as of today:

Gallup: Obama 51 (nc), McCain 42 (+1)
Rasmussen: Obama 52 (+2), McCain 45 (nc)
Diageo/Hotline: Obama 50 (+2), McCain 40 (-1)
Reuters/CSpan/Zogby: Obama 48 (nc), McCain 44 (+1)
(change since yesterday)

Obama now leads by 7.6 points in the RCP National Average

New state polls out in four states:

Alabama - SurveyUSA
McCain 62 (-2 vs. last poll, Sept. 16-17)
Obama 35 (+1)

McCain leads by 25.0 points in the RCP Average for Alabama

Iowa - SurveyUSA
Obama 54 (nc vs. last poll, Sept. 17-18)
McCain 41 (-2)

Obama leads by 11.8 points in the RCP Average for Iowa

North Carolina - WSOC-TV
McCain 48
Obama 46

Obama leads by 1.2 points in the RCP Average for North Carolina

Ohio - Ohio Newspaper Poll
McCain 48
Obama 46

Obama leads by 2.7 points in the RCP Average for Ohio

A new Research 2000 poll taken this week in Florida shows Obama leading McCain by 5 points (Oct. 6-8, 600 LV, MoE +/- 4%).

Obama 49 (+4 vs. last poll, Sept. 15-18)
McCain 44 (-2)

Obama leads by 3.8 points in the RCP Average for Florida

Barack Obama is speaking at four separate rallies around Philadelphia today -- for good reason. Support in and around Philly is central to a Democrat's chances of winning the state.

In 2004, John Kerry carried Pennsylvania by about 145,000 votes -- just a 2.5-point margin. But in Philadelphia County alone, Kerry pummeled Pres. Bush, racking up more than 400,000 more votes than the president, thus allowing him to lose other less-populated portions of the state.

Democrat Bob Casey took 290,000 more votes in Philadelphia County than Republican Sen. Rick Santorum in their 2006 Senate race. Casey would cruise to victory statewide, helped in large part by his 84% take in the county.

In the April Democratic primary, Obama took close to 300,000 votes in the county -- just 70,000 less votes than Casey won in the 2006 general election. Combined with Hillary Clinton, the two Democrats took in a total of some 442,000 votes, only 100,000 less than Kerry won in the county in the 2004 general.

Obama appears set for a result in the state that will more closely resemble Casey's win than Kerry's. Obama's lead has continued to grow since mid-September, when the RCP polling average margin between Obama and McCain was within just a couple of points. Obama now leads by 13.8 points in the RCP Average for Pennsylvania.

As the video posted on this blog earlier showed, McCain attempted at a rally yesterday to tamp down the strange insults being hurled toward Obama. Politico reports that one supporter even referred to Obama as an "Arab," which McCain quickly corrected:

"Come on, John!" one audience member yelled out as the Republicans crowd expressed their dismay at their nominee. Others yelled "liar," and "terrorist," referring to Barack Obama.

McCain passed his wireless microphone to one woman who said, "I can't trust Obama. I have read about him and he's not he's not uh -- he's an Arab. He's not --" before McCain retook the microphone and replied:

"No, ma'am," the Arizona senator assured. "He's a decent family man [and] citizen that I just happen to have disagreements with on fundamental issues and that's what this campaign's all about. He's not [an Arab]."