A significant majority of Americans (54%-35%) now favor doing nothing as...]]> Wed, 08 Jul 2009 00:00:00 -0500 Wed, 29 Apr 2009 00:00:00 -0500 Not than many people are aware that Arlen Specter was the staffer who developed the Warren Commission's "magic bullet" theory. The Democrats, with Specter's announced shift from the Republican Party to the Democratic Party, now have their magic bullet to ensure that Barack Obama gets what he wants in his first two years in office: healthcare reform, climate change legislation, and appointments to his Administration and to various federal courts.

So far, there is every appearance that the Democrats are welcoming Specter with open arms, and attempting to clear the field for him to be the Democratic nominee in Pennsylvania in 2010. Suburban Philadelphia Democratic Congressman Joe...]]> Mon, 10 Nov 2008 00:00:00 -0600 The House seats are now distributed between the Parties about where they were after the 1992 elections. The two Republican victories in the Presidential races in 2000 and 2004 were eked out with narrow wins in a few key states producing small Electoral College victories. The Democrats' three victories were far more decisive.

While it is true that the 2008 race would have been much closer in the Electoral College with a small percentage shift in the popular vote in Indiana, Florida and North Carolina, looking forward to 2012, the prospects for the GOP are daunting. Changes due to redistributing the 435 House seats after the 2010 census will likely add a few net Electoral College...]]> Tue, 28 Oct 2008 00:00:00 -0500 Barack Obama is in good shape in all the blue states won by John Kerry in 2004. In only four of them, is his lead less than 10%. Obama's lead in New Hampshire (4) hovers around 5%. In Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10) and Pennsylvania (21), Obama's lead is between 5% and 10%. The national tracking polls, which have tightened the last two days to about a 5% lead for Obama on average, would need to move five points more to put New Hampshire in play, and probably more than that to put any of the others in play. Campaigning in a state and ads can move the state number 1-2% beyond the national tracking trend, but likely not more than that in the last week, especially with both sides...]]> Mon, 20 Oct 2008 00:00:00 -0500 Mon, 20 Oct 2008 00:00:00 -0500 In every battleground state the story is the same. Obama has run ads 3 to 4 times as often as McCain and the gap is widening each week. Most of the Obama ads, of course, are negative ads about McCain, and in most cases false or misleading according to factcheck.org. It is as if one basketball team is playing with a rule that its players foul out after committing 2 personal fouls, while and its opponent is allowed six personal fouls per player. Or maybe one basket is two feet lower, or one team can not include any player over six feet tall.

In essence, we do not have a fair fight. Obama has always liked it that way when it comes to his campaigns. Obama Thu, 09 Oct 2008 00:00:00 -0500 Given his financial advantage, ground game advantage and current lead in the key states, Obama is clearly in a very good position today. So can McCain recover? If so, what is his path to victory? I will explore this in two ways: the state targets to get to 270 Electoral College votes, and the issues and themes that could serve to tighten the race.

National Polling Trends

The movement in the large sample size national tracking polls in the last month has been extraordinarily large given the late stage of the race. Gallup has swung from a 5 point McCain lead to an 11 point Obama lead in a month, a 16 point swing. Rasmussen moved from a 3 point McCain lead to...]]> Wed, 17 Sep 2008 00:00:00 -0500 In terms of political momentum, when the topic being debated is national security or social issues and values, McCain benefits. When the topic is a souring economy or financial crisis, Obama wins. So this week, it is Obama's week to ride with the tide.

One of the reasons the Obama campaign has been so flummoxed by Sarah Palin is that every day Palin is the story, which she has been for close to two weeks, is a day when the Obama campaign is off message. The New York Times, boiling with rage at the new interloper who offers a different version of feminism than the only one allowed to be respected in its pages, has provided a huge boost to the McCain-Palin campaign with its army of...]]> Mon, 18 Aug 2008 00:00:00 -0500 So too, Americans seem to always rally around our athletes during the Olympics. By a 3 to 1 margin, Americans now approve of President Bush attending the games, a much higher percentage for this than before the games began. It is hard to remember the last time there was such an endorsement of any action by President Bush. So too, as the candidate perceived as the soldier/warrior, McCain stands to benefit more from any burst of patriotic fervor associated with the Olympic Games than Obama.

Senator McCain and the GOP also got out in front on high oil prices with their call for opening more areas in the country and some offshore areas to drilling for oil. Americans seem to have...]]> Thu, 10 Jul 2008 00:00:00 -0500 The Obama campaign has a simple message: you hate (or really, really don't like) the job George Bush is doing. John McCain will run things just like George Bush, and I (Obama) offer a very different and exciting change in approach. The corollaries to the Obama message are a not very subtle pitch that the voter can demonstrate his or her decency and lack of bias by voting for the first African American presidential candidate, and by the way, John McCain is too old.

McCain needs to make the case that he is a far "safer" choice to be the next occupant in the White House. This case should be not that difficult to make. In essence, who is the "untested" candidate, and who is the...]]> Thu, 29 May 2008 00:00:00 -0500 Wed, 30 Apr 2008 00:00:00 -0500 Mon, 14 Apr 2008 00:00:00 -0500