James Carville once declared that the name for candidates who rely on the youth vote is...]]> Fri, 14 Nov 2008 00:00:00 -0600 But the task won't be as easy as it was for Democrats this year. Though several Republicans gave up solid holds on what proved to be emerging Democratic territory, 2010 may not feature the same number of open seats ripe for the picking. Only one incumbent senator, Kansas' Sam Brownback, has said he will not run again, and the state is hardly fertile territory for Democrats.

A number of other Republicans, including Iowa's Chuck Grassley, Utah's Bob Bennett, Pennsylvania's Arlen Specter, Kentucky's Jim Bunning and Richard Shelby of Alabama, will be more than 75 years old, though all have made initial moves toward running again. Hawaii Senator Daniel Inouye is the only Democrat up in...]]> Wed, 12 Nov 2008 00:00:00 -0600 This weekend, members of the Republican National Committee and party strategists will meet in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina for a conference on the party's future. Hosted by South Carolina GOP chairman Katon Dawson, RNC members will discuss the path back to power. The event is largely seen as a forum for Dawson, a leading candidate for party chairman, to gain access to many of the 168 voting members of the national committee.

In what may have the most immediate and obvious impact on the party, the depleted House Republican Conference will meet in Washington next week to elect leaders for the 111th Congress. House Minority Leader John Boehner is likely to keep his post as the...]]> Wed, 05 Nov 2008 00:00:00 -0600 Democrats added to their majorities thanks to winning a majority of votes in every region of the country, according to exit polls released after the polls closed. From the Northeast, where voters favored Democrats by a 62%-36% margin, to the South, where the party won a slim 50%-47% majority, Democrats gained seats in each region.

As in 1992, concerns about the economy dominated Congressional elections, a factor that worked strongly in Democrats' favor. Of the 86% who said they were worried about economic conditions, 56% voted for Democratic congressional candidates, while Republicans won a 56% majority among the just 13% who said they aren't worried about the economy. Half of...]]> Mon, 03 Nov 2008 00:00:00 -0600 Pennsylvania: No path to 270 electoral votes that doesn't include Pennsylvania exists for John McCain. If he can peel classic Reagan Democrats out of Obama's coalition, he has a chance to pull a major upset. Wondering why McCain is spending so much time on the state when other Democratic targets looked more promising earlier this year? Pennsylvania has no early voting, which means their electorate will be susceptible to persuasion until the last possible moment.

Nevada: Obama is likely to win the Silver State, and perhaps not by a small margin. But the reason he will win -- a much-improved performance among Hispanic voters than John Kerry's 2004 performance -- could...]]> Fri, 31 Oct 2008 00:00:00 -0500 As for Landrieu, the Louisiana senator's Republican opponent is trying to connect her with Obama in a negative way, and state Treasurer John Kennedy is touting a new poll that shows him trailing by just a single point. But public surveys have showed Landrieu leading comfortably, and Democratic strategists barely mention her as in trouble.

Here, just days before Election Day, is our latest list of the ten seats most likely to change hands in the 111th Congress:

10. Kentucky (R - McConnell): Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is in trouble for two reasons: First, as his party's leader in the Senate, Democrats have an easy task in associating him with President Bush, who is...]]> Wed, 29 Oct 2008 00:00:00 -0500 Others, including South Carolina party chairman Katon Dawson, former Tennessee party chief Chip Saltsman and Michigan party head Saul Anuzis, are all said to be contemplating a bid for an upgrade to the national office. The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder reported Tuesday that Texas Republican Party chairwoman Tina Benkiser has started making phone calls to gauge support.

Dawson, of South Carolina, has been the most open in making preparations many see as a prelude to a bid for the top spot. Two weekends after the election, Dawson will host a group of RNC members and GOP officials at a conference designed to examine the outcome of the 2008 elections at a posh resort in Myrtle...]]> Wed, 29 Oct 2008 00:00:00 -0500 Tue, 28 Oct 2008 00:00:00 -0500 The two parties are reacting very differently to the impending wave. Democrats are walking a delicate tightrope of advising reporters to keep an eye on various Republicans they think are vulnerable while maintaining that achieving any big gains is a long shot.

One party strategist recently suggested keeping an eye on Reps. Henry Brown of South Carolina, Michael McCaul of Texas and California's Brian Bilbray while suggesting Democrats would only pick up a dozen seats. Another top strategist privately estimated Democrats' chances of winning 60 seats in the Senate at just 5%.

Today, both of those guesses seem dramatically lower than political reality would suggest. In the...]]> Fri, 24 Oct 2008 00:00:00 -0500 The new stimulus will likely include an extension of unemployment benefits and increased investment in infrastructure to create new jobs, while a spokesman for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi suggested the final package will include aid to the states and, potentially, a tax credit for the middle class. "We want to do this in a fiscally responsible way," Pelosi spokesman Brendan Daly said.

The size of the new stimulus is a matter that has yet to be negotiated. "The Democrats are apparently talking about some sort of $300 billion boondoggle," said Michael Steel, a spokesman for House Republican Leader John Boehner. "They don't even know what's in it, they just know they want to spend $300...]]> Mon, 20 Oct 2008 00:00:00 -0500 While he doesn't merit inclusion on the top ten list just yet, Democrats also have a chance to make Georgia Senator Saxby Chambliss' life uncomfortable in the next few weeks, as polls show his race tightening. And Democrats see positive movement against Senator Susan Collins in Maine, though her lead over Rep. Tom Allen remains relatively strong.

The top ten Senate races, ranked in order of likelihood of flipping:

10. Kentucky (R - McConnell) -- It's never good when a campaign's internal poll shows an incumbent under 50, and it's even worse when the poll's trendline shows the race closing. Republican Mitch McConnell is ahead, but his leadership on the highly unpopular bailout...]]> Sun, 19 Oct 2008 00:00:00 -0500 The new focus comes as elections officials in key battleground states are expecting near-record levels of turnout. "With all of this excitement that we have surrounding this historic election, we still are faced with challenges," said Susan Pollard, a spokeswoman for the Virginia State Board of Elections. Pollard said her state, a battleground for the first time in generations, is anticipating that 90% of the nearly five million registered voters there will cast ballots, about twenty points higher than the 71% who turned out in 2004.

In Colorado, another state expecting record turnout, Secretary of State Mike Coffman and county elections officials have been "very aggressive" in...]]> Wed, 15 Oct 2008 00:00:00 -0500 The 1990's were a good decade to be a Republican west of the Rockies. But since President Bush won the White House, Democrats have seen a marked improvement in their Western fortunes. Beginning in 2000, Democrats have picked up three Senate seats, five governor's mansions and twelve House seats in states in the Mountain or Pacific Time Zones.

By contrast, Republicans have picked up just one Senate seat, John Ensign's, and one governor's mansion, when California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger won a recall election in 2003.

That, Republicans fear, is only the beginning of their party's Western woes. In 2008, Democratic candidates are running ahead of...]]> Mon, 06 Oct 2008 00:00:00 -0500 The last week's focus on the economy, with three high-profile Congressional votes on an economic stabilization plan has amplified voter jitters about their jobs, their investments and their retirement. Fully 59% of Americans say the economy is the most important issue facing the country; few, if any, issues have ever reached such an apex (The next most important issue in voters' minds, the war in Iraq, is cited by just 5% of voters).

Whether voters trust Democrats to better handle the economy or just blame Republicans for economic woes, the issue being at the fore in voters' minds clearly benefits Democrats. From the presidential contest to races for Senate and the House, the...]]> Fri, 03 Oct 2008 00:00:00 -0500 "What he did was ask every House Republican who could vote in good conscience for this bill to do so," said Boehner spokesman Michael Steel. "It's not what a lot of our guys, including Boehner, were elected to do. He obviously respected the views of those who couldn't."

According to most conference members, Boehner achieved that delicate line. "Boehner applied the most effective pressure of all, and that was he appealed to our statesmanship and our principles," said Trent Franks, an Arizona Republican who ended up voting against the bill. "Boehner has done an absolutely excellent job in this situation," he said, pointing out that he had voted for Boehner's opponent in the 2007 race...]]> Thu, 02 Oct 2008 00:00:00 -0500 Tue, 30 Sep 2008 00:00:00 -0500 Neither Democrats nor Republicans denied the political danger in voting for the financial equivalent of almost a year and a half of the war in Iraq. It is little surprise that so many members of Congress running for re-election in tight races voted against the measure, especially given anecdotal tales of congressional offices receiving constituent phone calls at a rate of 100 to 1 and higher in opposition.

The consensus among members of Congress was clear: Being on the wrong side of the emergency legislation -- in this case, the side in favor of the bill -- is tantamount to handing your opponents an issue come November. The numbers are striking. Of the thirty-four members on the...]]> Fri, 26 Sep 2008 00:00:00 -0500 How Obama Wins

Fortuitously for the Obama campaign, recent troubles on Wall Street have dimmed the importance of foreign policy in voters' minds as the economy has gained importance. Obama isn't the best candidate at feeling voters' pain, but he's a lot better than John McCain.

Tonight, Obama has the opportunity to put McCain on defense on the economy while simultaneously answering a fundamental question for undecided voters. As moderator Jim Lehrer asks tough and substantive foreign policy questions, Obama must not overreach in his answers, but he can go toe-to-toe with McCain in a substantive manner.

No one will argue that Obama is more experienced than John...]]> Fri, 26 Sep 2008 00:00:00 -0500 Ostensibly focused on foreign policy, the debate kicked off with moderator Jim Lehrer probing the candidates' positions on the economic bailout proposal working its way through Congressional negotiations. Both candidates framed the economic crisis as a challenge to the average American.

"I can't think of a more important time to talk about the future of our country," Obama said.

"Have no doubt about the magnitude of this crisis. We're not talking about failures of institutions on Wall Street, we're talking about failures on Main Street," McCain added.

For all the pressure Lehrer put on both candidates to expand upon their own proposals for recovery, neither was...]]> Mon, 22 Sep 2008 00:00:00 -0500 The NRSC raised $5.1 million in August, more than the $4.4 million the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee raised. At the end of the month, though, the DSCC still held a $33.7 million to $26.8 million advantage over the Republican committee.

That $7 million disparity is a far smaller advantage than Democrats have enjoyed all year. But that's because the party has already started spending heavily on their efforts to win in November. Democrats spent $13.7 million on advertising in August, compared with just $3 million spent by Republicans.

Democrats' lopsided spending spree has gone mostly toward independent expenditure advertising in four states with Senate seats...]]> Wed, 17 Sep 2008 00:00:00 -0500 Congress has gotten the message; this week, the House is debating Democratic legislation to open limited areas of the Outer-Continental Shelf to oil exploration in a move designed to bring down gas prices. Republicans have used Democratic opposition to drilling effectively in recent weeks, and House Republican Leader John Boehner continues to hammer home his "all of the above" energy plan.

Polls certainly show a trend of voter disinterest along with a corresponding rise in anxiety about the economy. The last time the Post/ABC poll showed Iraq as the most important issue in voters' minds was November 2007.

Democrats acknowledge that the war has faded from voter consciousness,...]]> Mon, 15 Sep 2008 00:00:00 -0500 Fri, 12 Sep 2008 00:00:00 -0500 While the Republican brand remains unpopular with voters around the nation, polls have shown a generic Republican congressional candidate creeping to within striking distance of the generic Democratic candidate. That gap has closed, Republicans say, because Palin has given their party inroads with voters who would otherwise have been firmly in the Democratic camp.

"She's a pretty interesting character. I think Americans like that story, they like 'Mr. Smith Comes to Washington,'" said Tom Cole, who chairs the National Republican Congressional Committee. "If you're the Republicans, you need to make the public take a second look at you this cycle."

Her gender is no small part...]]> Wed, 10 Sep 2008 00:00:00 -0500 Asked in separate interviews what they hoped would be accomplished in the coming weeks, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) were equally pessimistic.

"I hope the Republicans finally decide they want to try to accomplish some things for the country rather than the status quo," Mr. Reid said, pointing to what he said is the record number of filibusters Republicans have threatened or executed this year. "They've broken all previous records [for filibusters in a session] by almost 100%."

"This has been a Congress almost entirely without accomplishment," Mr. McConnell said. "It currently suffers from a 14% approval rating, and I...]]> Fri, 05 Sep 2008 00:00:00 -0500 Thu, 04 Sep 2008 00:00:00 -0500 All three vehemently denied interest in running for the job, declaring instead that they were completely focused on electing John McCain. Anuzis, a vocal and bombastic spokesman for Republican causes and a favorite of Fox News, told Real Clear Politics he will run for re-election as chairman of the Michigan party, but that he's not even planning that bid until after the election. But behind the scenes, the game is already underway.

Dawson and Greer are making the most overt moves toward a possible run. Dawson recently called a prominent member of the Washington Republican establishment to seek advice on a run, according to the recipient of the call. But Dawson has not made...]]> Mon, 01 Sep 2008 00:00:00 -0500 But bounces are fickle things, and only a few candidates in the past few decades have seen real, sustained growth following their nominations that lasts deep into the brief general election campaign. In fact, most pollsters and consultants agree, in a race as close as the one between Obama and McCain, any substantial movement is highly unlikely.

"I think a three- to five-point bounce is about all you can get with a race this close," said Ed Rollins, the Republican strategist who managed Ronald Reagan's successful 1984 re-election bid. Democratic insider Lanny Davis, who before serving as special counsel to Bill Clinton was a pollster himself, pointed out that the average...]]> Sun, 31 Aug 2008 00:00:00 -0500 Reactions from Republicans across the spectrum were not just positive, they were downright ecstatic. Movement conservatives and professional strategists frequently find themselves disagreeing on what is best politically, but Palin is one of the rare points of agreement.

Palin, who won the office by easily beating Governor Frank Murkowski in the GOP primary, is seen primarily as a reformer. As the Alaska Republican Party reels from scandals that have sent several state lawmakers to jail and could cost Senator Ted Stevens and Rep. Don Young their congressional careers, Palin has openly fought with the state party chairman.

From a political perspective, Palin helps reinvent the...]]> Sat, 23 Aug 2008 00:00:00 -0500 Clearly, Biden's experience in Washington ensures that he cannot adopt the same outsider mantle Obama owns. But Obama's brand, like McCain's, is so strong on its own that it doesn't need to be augmented by further change. Instead, Obama had weaknesses and gaps to fill, and he chose a candidate who did just that.

In fact, as McCain cleverly makes the argument that his brand of moderate change is safer than Obama's brand of more extreme change, Obama's choice of an experienced Washington insider tempers that criticism. Too much change can be a bad thing, and Biden, unlike other candidates for the number two job, curbs stories about naivete and a lack of depth.

In a sense, Biden...]]> Sat, 16 Aug 2008 00:00:00 -0500 The race has all the hallmarks of a typical Louisiana election -- which is to say, shifting loyalties to candidates transcend weak party affiliations, an early barrage of insults and negative ads and, in general, yet another example of politics in a state with a political climate unlike any other.

Polls show Landrieu and Kennedy locked in a tight race, and both campaigns say the race will be close in the end. The latest independent telephone survey, conducted by Louisiana-based Southern Media & Opinion Research, showed Landrieu leading by a narrow 46%-40% margin. Both candidates are pushing their records and slamming the other's flaws, and perhaps most interestingly, both...]]> Tue, 12 Aug 2008 00:00:00 -0500 Mon, 11 Aug 2008 00:00:00 -0500 The divide between moderate fiscal Republicans and more socially conservative elements of the party flared a decade or more ago, when conservatives like Ryun and former Attorney General Phill Kline ascended to power. Sensing opportunity, conservatives targeted the state school board, and after winning several seats decided to eliminate the teaching of evolution in the state's ciriculum.

Soon, the rift between the two groups, and some of the egos involved, amounted to the creation of a de facto third party. "Other states have schisms or disagreements, and often serious ones between more fiscally-oriented Republicans and socially conservative ones. By and large, they have their...]]> Sun, 10 Aug 2008 00:00:00 -0500 Wed, 06 Aug 2008 00:00:00 -0500 As energy prices rise, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has come under increasing pressure from Republicans and a handful of Democrats to allow votes both lifting the moratorium on new drilling on the Outer-Continental Shelf and allowing drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Lifting both bans, Republicans say, would increase production of energy at home and reduce the need for importing oil from the Middle East. Pelosi has so far ruled out any votes on the matters outside of a larger comprehensive energy bill that may come in September.

Two weeks ago, eleven House Republicans, led by Minority Leader John Boehner, visited ANWR and a renewable energy laboratory in...]]> Fri, 01 Aug 2008 00:00:00 -0500 But Republicans reject that argument. "We have veto threats on these bills almost every year," said Jennifer Hing, spokeswoman for Republicans on the Appropriations Committee. Rather, she said, Democrats are avoiding bringing up the bills, and have since late June, to prevent a series of votes on energy issues designed to open new areas for oil exploration. With gas prices hovering near $4 a gallon, Republicans pushing what they call their "all of the above" energy plan think they have found a political issue that works to their benefit.

Repeated calls and emails to the House Appropriations Committee's Democratic spokeswoman went unanswered.

The issue first...]]> Tue, 29 Jul 2008 00:00:00 -0500 Candidates who find themselves running behind frequently try to frame the race as a decision about their opponent's performance because, in the long run, it is easier to sow doubts in a voter's mind than it is to establish positive opinions.

In this year's presidential race, McCain finds himself trailing, and while a vast majority of Americans want serious change, Obama, the Republican has argued, represents change that is too radical for the country. McCain's brand of change, he argues, is a more gradual step in the right direction. McCain casts himself as the safe choice, while Obama is the more risky one.

Pursuing that goal, McCain has lately questioned Obama's priorities...]]> Fri, 25 Jul 2008 00:00:00 -0500 It's not the only effort Giuliani has made to increase his national profile in the past week. From escorting John McCain to a ballgame at Yankee Stadium this week to appearing on MSNBC's "Hardball" to meeting with a rising crop of House Republican leaders creating a new fundraising program themselves, Giuliani has emerged once again into the public spotlight of late.

The New York Post reported last week that Giuliani would start the PAC this week, and will focus on helping the state Republican Party hold their narrow advantage in the Senate. Giuliani also held a fundraiser Monday for his federal PAC, Solutions America, in New York. "The idea is that Rudy's going to spend a...]]> Fri, 18 Jul 2008 00:00:00 -0500 The number of more centrist and conservative Democrats is increasing. Of the forty-one freshmen elected in 2006, including three who had served in Congress previously, fifteen spent their first year earning liberal scores of 55% or less. In the three special elections Democrats won earlier this year, two of those winners -- Reps. Don Cazayoux of Louisiana and Travis Childers of Mississippi -- are likely to compile similarly conservative voting records.

They join the likes of Taylor, also of Mississippi, Jim Marshall and John Barrow of Georgia, and John Tanner and Lincoln Davis of Tennessee. The 2006 freshman class also added a boatload of new conservative Democrats,...]]> Tue, 15 Jul 2008 00:00:00 -0500 National Republicans, though, say Democratic efforts to win big will be inhibited by their need to protect their incumbents. "Despite their many claims that Democrat incumbents had solidified their reelections, the DCCC is now planning to sink millions upon millions of dollars into defending nearly a dozen of their own members," National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Ken Spain said (The inital ad reservation made last week sets aside $13 million for Democratic-held seats). Those Democrats' "records of massive tax hikes, runaway spending, and opposition to lowering energy costs have left them vulnerable to a Republican challenge," he said.

The advertising...]]> Thu, 10 Jul 2008 00:00:00 -0500 But when one party dominates, it can succumb to laziness and even corruption - which is precisely what has happened to the Alaska Republican Party. Scandal and internal feuding among the state GOP, coupled with a year in which the dominant theme appears to be a desire for change, has given Democrats the opportunity to be competitive in one of the reddest Republican bastions in the country. Barack Obama's early commitment of resources to Alaska may further energize and boost the confidence of Democrats seeking to tackle the political equivalent of scaling the North Face of Mt. McKinley.

It may be known for bountiful fish harvests, the best crab in the world, and some of the...]]> Wed, 02 Jul 2008 00:00:00 -0500 For Republicans, the war has been a political drag since at least early 2006 and the public's displeasure with Iraq helped contribute, along with rampant spending and the taint of corruption, to the party losing its Congressional majority in the November midterms. Throw in the economic turbulence in the ensuing year and half and it's not a complete surprise that GOP is facing its highest unfavorable ratings in recent memory. Given the party's tenuous financial as well as political position, the GOP could potentially find itself at such a disadvantage in the coming Congress that its influence on legislation will be minimal.

Given all this, conventional wisdom might suggest...]]> Mon, 30 Jun 2008 00:00:00 -0500 Fri, 20 Jun 2008 00:00:00 -0500 Thu, 12 Jun 2008 00:00:00 -0500 Sat, 07 Jun 2008 00:00:00 -0500