1. "Armed with a poll showing...]]> Fri, 31 Jul 2009 00:00:00 -0500 Fri, 19 Jun 2009 00:00:00 -0500 People who live for politics appreciate what real votes in real elections mean. It's pure heroin for junkies.

There is no cold turkey like the one between the end of a presidential election and the midterm election that occurs two full years later. The presidential high--the flood of votes in all fifty states for the Electoral College and the thousands of contests for every other office under the sun--is intense. It takes weeks to devour the totals, and months to think through what they mean.

Then comes the void, an emptiness that rivals the black vacuum between galaxies. Six months after a president is chosen, the political community has the shakes, and begs for votes,...]]> Mon, 17 Nov 2008 00:00:00 -0600 Thu, 18 Sep 2008 00:00:00 -0500 Then the presidential contest got its real shake-up. McCain and his staff had not been fooled by the polls that suggested he was gaining on Obama. The underlying, fundamental factors of this election year are strongly Democratic: a highly unpopular Republican president, a deteriorating economy in significant ways, a foreign war most Americans believe should not have been fought, and an enthusiasm gap between the parties that was producing record Democratic donations and voter registrations. McCain was on track to score a respectable second-place finish, the usual fate of candidates of the incumbent party who try to win a third consecutive term.

Always a gambler, McCain rolled the...]]> Wed, 30 Jul 2008 00:00:00 -0500 1. Personal Chemistry

There can be little doubt that this is the main reason why Obama is looking at Kaine. The first state governor outside Obama's Illinois to endorse Obama for President, Kaine was immediately drawn to the Illinois senator because they are two peas in a political pod. Both Harvard Law graduates with Kansas roots, both attorneys with a central focus on civil rights, and both relatively new to the big leagues, Obama and Kaine clearly like one another and enjoy each other's company.

Obama has realized that a modern Vice President practically lives with the Chief Executive, especially in times of crisis, and he wants someone he can trust...]]> Thu, 10 Jul 2008 00:00:00 -0500 As the Democratic nominee in a year when conditions are truly awful for the incumbent Republican party, Barack Obama is considered the presidential frontrunner by a large majority of political observers (including many Republicans, privately), and the Crystal Ball is no different. If events intervene to reverse this, we'll revise the map, something we plan to do anyway throughout the fall campaign. The vice presidential nominees, if one or both are strong in their resident states or regions, may also trigger a map adjustment.

History also suggests that the Electoral College system is only critical when the popular vote is reasonably close or disputed. That is, the College can...]]> Thu, 19 Jun 2008 00:00:00 -0500 Thu, 20 Mar 2008 00:00:00 -0500