But in response to a financial crisis or economic downturn, political risk impacts markets much more broadly than just isolated policies and individual stocks. It is easy to note in retrospect from last October until mid-May that the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced at least a half-dozen significant inflection points either on the day of or as details leaked about political events like major votes in...]]> Fri, 19 Dec 2008 00:00:00 -0600 Antagonistic domestic constituencies, however, have thwarted comprehensive, multilateral deals, and this most recent setback was predictable despite the optimistic G20 rhetoric. The truth is that emerging market countries (EMs) haven't been able to wait for Doha -- and they will continue to lead the world toward trade liberalization even without it.

Developed countries have a status-quo bias as they experience fewer gains from increased liberalization. Consequently, the Doha Round, which seeks to expand global wealth through a single comprehensive liberalization package, has suffered greatly from lack of U.S. leadership on the issue.

Though the Bush administration is...]]> Thu, 30 Oct 2008 00:00:00 -0500 Whatever the outcome of the presidential election, Democrats are highly likely to retain majority control of both houses of Congress. That's why, paradoxically, an Obama White House might accomplish more on trade than a McCain administration, despite the Republican nominee's sterling free-trade credentials.

McCain's trade track record speaks for itself. The CATO Institute gives the Arizona Republican one of its highest ratings on the issue. If McCain speaks less about trade than other candidates, it's largely because his support for it is so well known.

A President McCain and a Republican-dominated Congress might do more to advance an aggressive free-trade agenda than any...]]>