Obama didn't simply promise change, he embodies it. Japanese voters can now claim they've done the Americans one better. Two weeks ago, they passed power from the party that has ruled virtually continuously since 1955 to the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). The DPJ victory will bring about change. But for the foreseeable future, there will less to this change than meets the eye.

Few Americans recognize how historic the DPJ victory really is. Until two weeks ago, Japan's Liberal Democratic Party had held power for so long...]]> Tue, 16 Jun 2009 22:00:00 -0700 For nearly a year, an unmanageable coalition government in India has obstructed the ruling Congress Party's policy agenda and brought the country's economic reform process to a grinding halt. Now that an impressive electoral triumph in national parliamentary elections held in April and May has allowed the party to shed unreliable allies, can its leaders move the country in a more market-friendly direction? There are grounds for both caution and optimism.

The unexpected scale of the ruling party's victory will bolster India's political stability. With the help of small parties and independents, the Congress Party has assembled a coalition that controls 274 of 543 seats in...]]> Tue, 26 May 2009 22:00:00 -0700 During a triumphant campaign swing through Iran's Semnan province Wednesday, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad sent a message meant for several different audiences. Announcing the successful launch of a long-range surface-to-surface missile from a launch pad nearby, he reminded Americans that he wouldn't renounce Iran's nuclear ambitions, Israelis that they live well within the missile's range, and Iranian voters that he deserves another term as president.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei holds ultimate political authority in the country, but Iran's June 12 presidential election matters a great deal -- for Iran, for the Middle East and for the United States. If...]]> Tue, 14 Apr 2009 22:00:00 -0700 With Barack Obama now back in Washington after his first presidential tour abroad, fans and foes are rendering their verdicts on how he did. Did he show signs of emerging greatness? Or is he all presentation, the triumph of charisma over substance?

Some of the reviews have been raves. "(N)othing seems to be clouding the blue skies of the old continent's love story with President Obama," wrote French author Amélie Nothomb in last weekend's New York Times. "Mr. Obama's anger is portrayed here as something holy. And when he laughs, we laugh."

The flash of star power in London, the adoring crowds in Prague, the town hall meeting in Istanbul, and the surprise stopover in...]]> Mon, 23 Mar 2009 22:00:00 -0700 President Obama expanded the likelihood of backlash by taking a strong opening position against the bonuses, increasing the vulnerability of his own Secretary of Treasury Tim Geithner and, more problematically, opening the floodgates for congressional overreaction to popular anger (creating, ironically, the first bipartisan bill to come out of the new house of representatives--undoing the AIG bonuses through the tax code).

More from RealClearPolitics: 10 States in the Biggest Budget...]]> Thu, 19 Mar 2009 22:00:00 -0700 Sun, 15 Mar 2009 22:00:00 -0700 RCP: What are some of the political risks that may stem from the current global financial crisis?

Bremmer: In response to this particular fat tail risk, governments around the world (especially in developed states) are using stimulus packages, direct intervention in financial institutions, and regulatory reforms to deepen their direct involvement in domestic economies. Detailed understanding of the motives and incentives that guide political officials and lawmakers as they make decisions on economic policy will help us forecast how the crisis will separate winners from losers. After all, some companies, industries, investors and governments will...]]> Sun, 01 Mar 2009 22:00:00 -0800 Voters are increasingly expecting Obama to deliver economic recovery sooner than they did two months ago. According to Gallup, the number of voters who expect the economy to recover within a year has increased from 16 percent to 24 percent from mid-December until now, with a median expectation of recovery declining from three years out to two years. At the same time, the number of voters who think Obama is moving too slowly on "major problems facing the country" has held firm at only 10 percent between the end of January and now. This indicates Obama has breathing room to deliver results, but the risk of Obama's optimism in his speech to Congress is that voters begin to expect progress...]]> Thu, 19 Feb 2009 22:00:00 -0800 Why is China vulnerable? Much of its growth continues to depend on the supply of manufactured goods to the United States and European Union, where recession has sharply reduced consumer demand. China's government reported GDP growth of 9 percent in 2008 -- a healthy number, though not on par with figures of the past several years. Despite a sharp slowdown in recent months, Chinese officials say publicly that they expect 8 percent growth in 2009, though some privately concede that 7 percent is more likely. Some analysts warn it could fall to 5 percent.

Yet, despite the slowdown, the Chinese leadership is unlikely to face a dangerous public challenge this year. A $586 billion...]]> Sun, 18 Jan 2009 22:00:00 -0800 With oil prices well below what the Russians can afford, but Putin's (& Medvedev's) popularity still high, the initial moves have been to consolidate power. Yet despite no organized political opposition to speak of, we're still starting to see social unrest. For the first time in years, there have been widespread demonstrations in Russia--in 30 cities, following the imposition of import duties on used cars. We're likely to see much more turbulence in 2009, as factories providing employment for entire cities are shuttered. That's a sort of suffering that Russians are certainly used to, but only in the context of a very different kind of political system.

Where could this go? There...]]> Sun, 11 Jan 2009 22:00:00 -0800 Sat, 06 Dec 2008 22:00:00 -0800 But the massacre in Mumbai represents an unprecedented shock for the Indian nation. One of the terrorist targets, the Taj Mahal hotel, has stood for more than a century as a monument to India's modern identity and its triumph over colonialism. Jamsetji Tata, the "father of Indian industry," is said to have built the Taj after he was refused entrance to a nearby British-operated whites-only hotel.

The iconic nature of the Taj helps explain why terrorism-weary Indians consider this latest attack "India's 9/11." More killings at the Oberoi and Trident hotels have added to fear among international investors and business leaders that foreigners, particularly Westerners, are not safe in...]]> Wed, 26 Nov 2008 22:00:00 -0800 But there's an opportunity here, as well. The goodwill that Obama has already generated abroad can help him forge foreign partnerships -- tactical alliances that will help with management of a host of pressing international problems. Skeptical Israelis and indifferent Russians aside, the citizens of many countries will support their governments' willingness to share a few burdens with the new U.S. president.

Imagine President Obama's first visits overseas. We caught a glimpse of the welcome he can expect in many countries in the throng of exuberant, flag-waving Berliners he addressed in July and the jubilant Kenyans who danced and sang in celebration on election night.

Even...]]> Mon, 10 Nov 2008 22:00:00 -0800 A second group of likely losers includes countries in which upcoming elections are diverting government attention from economic woes. In India, the embattled Congress Party faces national elections in the next few months. Substantial off-budget spending on petroleum subsidies, debt relief for farmers, and higher wages for public-sector workers may boost the party's electoral fortunes, but it shifts energy and resources from much-needed longer-term reforms.

In Turkey, a wide range of political challenges to the ruling Justice and Development Party has the leadership more focused on corruption charges, a battle with the opposition-dominated media, and terrorist attacks by Kurdish...]]> Tue, 30 Sep 2008 22:00:00 -0700 This is classic bluster, a self-serving attempt to portray Russia's increasingly confrontational foreign policy as a matter of necessity and of self-defense. But Rogozin is right about one thing: 9/11 and 8/8 are the most important post-Cold War dates for the evolution of international politics.

For Americans, 9/11 revealed the heavy political, economic and military cost that the world's only superpower must always be prepared to pay. Over the past seven years, a reversal of economic fortunes, a substantial transfer of American wealth toward emerging powers and energy-rich states, political push-back from some of its traditional allies, and a nuclear challenge from Iran have eroded...]]> Thu, 18 Sep 2008 22:00:00 -0700 Sun, 06 Jul 2008 22:00:00 -0700 Most developing states outside of Latin America are currently contending with regional political instability. But now that historically hostile relations with neighboring Pakistan have stabilized and relations with China have improved, there are few urgent foreign-policy challenges to distract Indian policymakers from the process of economic liberalization. Throw in the number of younger Indians who speak English and the contributions of capital and know-how from the global Indian diaspora and it's not difficult to see why things are going so well.

India also benefits from the steady growth of its labor force. Within five years, China will begin to face a serious demographic...]]> Tue, 24 Jun 2008 22:00:00 -0700 Mon, 02 Jun 2008 22:00:00 -0700 Thu, 10 Apr 2008 22:00:00 -0700