The war is going very, very badly in both countries. Meanwhile, the whole world waits for yet another US review of its Afghanistan and Pakistan policy.

To simplify rather drastically, the two possible alternatives are counter-insurgency, which often travels under the acronym COIN, and counter-terrorism,...]]> Thu, 29 Oct 2009 00:00:00 -0500 A few weeks ago in London, British Foreign Secretary David Miliband told me that 75 per cent of the terrorist plots aimed at Britain originated in the federally administered tribal areas of Pakistan. Some 800,000 Pakistanis live in Britain.

The vast majority, it goes without saying, are law-abiding citizens. But there is a link between uncontrolled Muslim immigration and terrorism.

The real historic significance of the illegal immigration crisis in our northern waters is that this could, if things go wrong, be the moment Australia loses control of our immigration program, and that would be a disaster.

It is extremely difficult to talk honestly about Muslim...]]> Thu, 24 Sep 2009 00:00:00 -0500 It may seem rather unkind to express some serious doubts about US President Barack Obama just now. He is wowing the UN with talk of nuclear disarmament. He is mesmerising the Group of 20 with talk of global recovery. He is leading a policy review that talks of winning in Afghanistan and he will not send more troops in response to the request of the US military commander in Afghanistan, Stanley McChrystal, without deeper talks.

He has stirred hearts in the Middle East with talk of peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians. And from October 1 he will be talking directly with the Iranians in pursuit of his talk of stopping Tehran from getting nuclear weapons.

It's a lot...]]> Sat, 27 Jun 2009 00:00:00 -0500 BARACK Obama has become ahero to the Palestinians. Meanwhile, a poll published in The Jerusalem Post shows a minuscule 6 per cent of Israelis believe Obama's administration and policies are pro-Israel.

This week I spent a morning in the Palestinian West Bank capital of Ramallah. Unlike most of the West Bank, Ramallah is a thriving city of shopping malls, new apartment buildings and designer brands.

Riad Malki, the Palestinian Authority's Foreign Minister, cites Obama's attitude as the biggest positive change in the prospects for peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians. Another Palestinian politician, Mustafa Barghouti, tells me he found Obama's speech to the Muslim...]]> Wed, 10 Jun 2009 00:00:00 -0500 THIS startling European election result is a big victory for Europe's conservatives, a devastating result for the continent's social democrats, and a challenging result for the institutions of Europe itself.

European voters don't seem to have read Kevin Rudd's essay on the collapse of neo-liberalism, the associated blame to be apportioned to mainstream conservative parties and the historic moment for the emergence of a new social-democratic consensus.

In Britain, Labour lost to the conservatives in Wales. That would the equivalent of the Liberal Party winning Newcastle and Wollongong and the National Party taking the inner-city seats of Melbourne and Sydney. It's an...]]> Tue, 26 May 2009 00:00:00 -0500 The new nuclear test carried out by North Korea demonstrates the complete failure, so far, of US President Barack Obama's softly-softly diplomacy and willingness to start afresh with old enemies.

It may be that Obama's approach is well worth a try, but so far its yield is zero.

This is in great contrast to North Korea's nuclear weapons program. It yields a great deal indeed. There is every chance Pyongyang will succeed in all its ambitions with its latest nuclear...]]> Sat, 25 Apr 2009 00:00:00 -0500

A CIGAR, as even Sigmund Freud acknowledged, is sometimes just a cigar. But a missile launch by an ageing dictator is always a symbol of virility. However, North Korea's April 5 missile launch may be much more than a symbol of Kim Jong-il's continuing power in North Korea. I believe Pyongyang will engage in another nuclear test before the end of this year.

London's The Times reports that US and other Western government agencies have increasingly acknowledged, without fanfare, that North Korea has useable nuclear weapons that it can miniaturise and load on missiles. Kevin Rudd, as recently as yesterday in an important address to the Australia Israel Chamber of...]]> Thu, 05 Mar 2009 00:00:00 -0600 The South Korean attitude to North Korea is in some respects similar to Israel's attitude to the Palestinians. They know the problems of their neighbours must be solved one day. But it seems impossible to design incentives and disincentives that have any effect. So, apart from taking necessary security measures, they try to ignore the horrendous security challenge across the border.

The big problem for analysts of North Korea, as for economists before the outbreak of the global financial crisis, is that one day North Korea, like the world's banks, will change radically and suddenly. It will either explode, or collapse, or lurch into some grotesque new crisis.

When it does we...]]> Sat, 14 Feb 2009 00:00:00 -0600 The odds are strengthening on a Netanyahu prime ministership. He won fewer seats than Livni but more fellow-travelling right-wingers were elected than Centre-Left people, and Netanyahu should be able to form a more stable government than Livni.

Whether it's a narrow coalition, excluding Livni and also Ehud Barak's Labour Party, and therefore with a slight majority, or a broad coalition, including Livni and Barak, will make a big difference to its longevity.

What will Netanyahu be like as PM?

I first met Netanyahu in the mid-1980s when he was Israel's ambassador to the UN....]]> Thu, 05 Feb 2009 00:00:00 -0600 But first, Israel's election next week. Benjamin Netanyahu will likely become prime minister, perhaps in coalition with Labor, perhaps with a Russian immigrants' party and religious parties.

Netanyahu will be demonised by the usual suspects but he will be no barrier to peace. Within Israel there is a broad consensus on what a peace agreement would look like. Palestine gets all the land of the West Bank and Gaza except for the large Jewish settlement blocks that are effectively suburbs of Jerusalem or Tel Aviv. These house 80 per cent of the Jewish settlers on 5 per cent of the disputed land. The new Palestinian state would get land from Israel proper to make up for this 5 per...]]> Sat, 17 Jan 2009 00:00:00 -0600 Obama was further asked to differentiate himself as strongly as possible from the Bush administration's policy of supporting Israel. Would he instead be ushering in a bold new policy?

Obama replied: "If you look not just at the Bush administration but what happened under the Clinton administration, you are seeing the general outlines of an approach."

Good grief! These words should shock every true Bush hater in the world. But wait, there's more.

Obama's nominee for secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, said that the Obama administration would put more emphasis on diplomacy and try to engage Syria and Iran in dialogue. (Just, indeed, as the Bush administration has tried...]]> Mon, 05 Jan 2009 00:00:00 -0600 But Israel must stop, or greatly reduce, the rockets from Gaza. It is an absolute strategic necessity.

Perhaps the stupidest line of analysis to emerge in recent days has been to compare the deaths from Hamas rockets in Israel to traffic fatalities and say that Israel should relax.

To grasp the nature of the strategic threat Hamas poses, it is necessary to place it in the context of its ally, Hezbollah, in southern Lebanon, and their common backer and puppet master, Iran.

During Israel's 2006 war with Hezbollah, rockets continued to rain down on Israel as far as the big industrial city of Haifa. There was an acute fear within Israel, although not much spoken of, that...]]> Sat, 06 Dec 2008 00:00:00 -0600 Thu, 04 Dec 2008 00:00:00 -0600 Sun, 30 Nov 2008 00:00:00 -0600 Thu, 13 Nov 2008 00:00:00 -0600 Thu, 06 Nov 2008 00:00:00 -0600 Sat, 01 Nov 2008 00:00:00 -0500 Sun, 28 Sep 2008 00:00:00 -0500 Thu, 11 Sep 2008 00:00:00 -0500 Sat, 30 Aug 2008 00:00:00 -0500 Thu, 07 Aug 2008 00:00:00 -0500 Wed, 16 Jul 2008 00:00:00 -0500 Fri, 04 Jul 2008 00:00:00 -0500 Thu, 26 Jun 2008 00:00:00 -0500 Sat, 24 May 2008 00:00:00 -0500 Mon, 28 Apr 2008 00:00:00 -0500 Sun, 13 Apr 2008 00:00:00 -0500 Sat, 05 Apr 2008 00:00:00 -0500 Sat, 29 Mar 2008 00:00:00 -0500 Mon, 24 Mar 2008 00:00:00 -0500