Deficit spending has always been the bete noir of American voters. The gospel of the balanced budget is deeply ingrained in their political and economic psyche. Throughout all the Keynesian experiments of the Kennedy, Johnson and Nixon years, voters remained committed to a balanced budget. As the deficit mounted during...]]> Sat, 06 Jun 2009 00:00:00 -0500 The data is in for April. Here's what happened:

1. Household personal income (inflation adjusted) rose, but every penny -- and then some -- went into savings or paying down debts. Consumer spending, on which Barack Obama is betting to stimulate the economy, actually fell. None of the stimulus money was sent. None.

2. Meanwhile, to pay for this stimulus spending that didn't stimulate, Obama had to borrow so much money that long-term interest rates have almost doubled since he took office, forcing postponement or abandonment of business expansion and hiring across the board.

What a record!

Here are the details. In April, personal household, inflation-adjusted...]]> Mon, 16 Mar 2009 00:00:00 -0500 Indeed, they're so wide of the mark as to prompt questions not of Obama's ideology but of his basic competence.

The bank-bailout plan seems to be largely stillborn. Having wished that the private sector would flock to invest in toxic assets if offered the right incentives, the Treasury secretary is still hoping. Crossing his fingers seems to have replaced effective policy in his planning.

To date, no massive infusion of private-sector capital seems in view and Washington is doing little more than writing checks to prop up the failing banks. That doesn't take a genius. But the difficult task of relieving the banks of toxic assets so they can rekindle the flow of loans seems...]]> Mon, 20 Oct 2008 00:00:00 -0500 If the Republican Party concentrates its fire on the tax issue and the redistributive impulse behind Obama's plans, it can close the Democratic lead point by point, day by day, until the election. McCain's campaign must resist the temptation to take random shots on a million other issues and zero in on the tax-and-spend issue, emphasizing how taxes penalize those who work hard and live right.

In fact, the rich are paying vastly more in taxes than they ever have. According to the excellent book "Reality Check" by Dennis Keegan and David West, the percentage of income tax revenues paid by the top 1 percent of the population has almost doubled in the past 20...]]> Tue, 07 Oct 2008 00:00:00 -0500 But October may see the end of Obama's surge: He's peaking too soon.

Once the Democrat is seen as the clear leader and likely winner, the spotlight will inevitably shift to him. And he may not benefit from the increased attention.

Obama didn't do well when he last emerged on top, in later Democratic primaries. The more it appeared that Hillary Clintonwould lose, the more voter concerns over Obama's relationship with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright cost him state after state in the later primaries.

Obama still beat Clinton because he'd already amassed a sufficient delegate lead earlier on. That dynamic doesn't apply in the general election.

The Democrat gained by standing...]]> Fri, 05 Sep 2008 00:00:00 -0500 The speeches, and the very fact of the Palin designation, repudiated Washington and focused on how McCain is an agent of change - this ticket is populist, reformist, anti-establishment, grass-roots and anti-corruption.

And McCain last night made the point plain: "Let me offer an advance warning to the old, big-spending, do-nothing, me-first-country-second Washington crowd: Change is coming."

If Bush were the nominee, this campaign wouldn't suffice to push voters away from Obama. But now that McCain has moved decisively away from the administration, Obama's lost much (at least) of his advantage on the issue of reform. Now other doubts about Obama could elect McCain.

The...]]> Fri, 22 Aug 2008 00:00:00 -0500 Oddly for a race that has been going on for two years and holds the nation rapt in attention, the contest is still in a very, very primitive phase. Voters' level of awareness of the issues or of the candidates is quite limited. Neither campaign has done much to project its issues or its message and the attacks on one another, which increasingly dominate the dialogue, show little resonance among most voters.

Overwhelmingly, the thing voters like the most about Obama is that he is new, a fresh face, for change, intelligent, inspiring, a good speaker, outspoken, and charismatic. 57% of all voters use one of these phrases to describe him, including 48% of Republicans and 55% of...]]> Thu, 14 Aug 2008 00:00:00 -0500 "I was born into a middle class family in the middle of the country in the middle of the last century."

After Penn's memos were released to the media this week, Hillary's people spread the word that she did not take Penn's advice. But it is evident that she did.

The strategy Penn recommended was ridiculous. He somehow thought that by stressing Hillary's normalcy, Obama's unusual name, race, origin, parents, and skin color would redound to his detriment. In fact, the exact opposite proved to be the case. It has been his very novelty that has underscored his appeal. Penn missed the point.

But the larger point in his memos is that Hillary sought, from the beginning of the...]]> Wed, 13 Aug 2008 00:00:00 -0500 The easiest way to do so is to name a woman. Two seem available. But Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, an attractive candidate for the future, is too inexperienced and Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison is, perhaps, too experienced. Both would have difficulty navigating a presidential campaign. Hutchison might just seem like an old woman running with an old man and Palin with McCain might seem like a father-daughter team, the younger partner just learning the ropes.

Instead, McCain should choose Senator Joe Lieberman. By choosing a Democrat - the party's nominee for vice president only eight years ago -- McCain would dramatically demonstrate that his candidacy transcends the normal,...]]> Sat, 02 Aug 2008 00:00:00 -0500 Are the McCain people waiting for September to get serious? If so, they are making a big mistake and missing an important opportunity. History indicates that the best time to beat a new candidate is in the summer. August to be precise.

Dukakis, Mondale, and Kerry all were destroyed in the summer, long before the fall campaign began. In 1984, the offensive against Geraldine Ferraro crippled Mondale well before Labor Day. In 1988, the pledge of allegiance, revolving door, and Willie Horton ads all ran in the summer. Dukakis was dead by September. And the swift boat attack on Kerry defeated him well before the summer was over.

McCain needs to make voters afraid of Obama....]]> Sun, 06 Jul 2008 00:00:00 -0500 With Obama running the ad in all the swing states (Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Virginia), this gross usurpation of credit affords the McCain campaign an incredible opportunity for rebuttal.

For the past two weeks, Obama has moved quickly toward the center. He has reversed his previous positions for gun control, against using faith based institutions to deliver public services, against immunity for tele-communications companies that turn records over to the government in terror investigations, for raising Social Security taxes, for...]]>