The public's view of this president ranks him in the lower third of modern American politics. He has fallen below the majority threshold at the fourth fastest rate, of the twelve presidents since World War II.

Obama was nearly number three. But he escaped Ronald Reagan's fall-point by about a week. That Reagan has been here as well, and languished below 50 for two years in his first term, illustrates that Obama's new reality is notable but not determinative. Still, it is indeed bad news.

In legislative terms, a president is only as powerful as he is...]]> Thu, 12 Nov 2009 22:00:00 -0800 This week, Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, a Florida Democrat, told reporters the GOP offers a "back-of-the-hand treatment to women." Later she said two conservative female representatives only serve to further "repulse women." You see, Schultz said on MSNBC, Republicans "don't really get very many women when it comes to elections."

The week before, in Virginia, the Republican gubernatorial candidate won women. And in blue New Jersey, the Republican lost women but won white women by 18 percentage points.

Last year, John McCain won a majority of the white female vote. They sum to more than 25 million women. Democrats, so many forget, have not won a majority of white women...]]> Wed, 04 Nov 2009 22:00:00 -0800 It's been a long time since Republicans savored the day after.

"This certainly was a much needed shot in the arm for Republicans. And should be a dire warning sign for Democrats," said Tony Fabrizio, a veteran GOP strategist.

But Fabrizio's long term view differed. "The smart Republicans are looking at it and saying ok, we're not dead yet," he continued. "But we can't assume that the election of these two Republicans means that the voters think we are right and are embracing Republican principles."

Tuesday's gubernatorial victories in Virginia and New Jersey have, in typical fashion, led to some exaggerated public comments. Republican National Committee Chairman...]]> Sun, 01 Nov 2009 22:00:00 -0800 Ronald Reagan's 1980 landslide was a year old. By November 1981, eyes were on the off-year elections. Reagan and George H.W. Bush campaigned heavily for the GOP candidates. Republicans scratched out the narrowest of victories in New Jersey. But Democrats won the Virginia governorship for the first time in more than a decade. The New York Times headline on November 5, 1981: "A Warning for the GOP."

Political observers framed 1981 as a referendum on Reagan. And in the next year's midterms, as is almost always the case, the president's party did fare poorly. The GOP lost 26 seats in the House, among other contests. But Reagan went on to win his 49-state landslide in...]]> Mon, 26 Oct 2009 22:00:00 -0700 Hillary Clinton did not need another man stealing her thunder. Last week, John Kerry earned headlines for convincing Afghan President Hamid Karzai to agree to a run-off election. The Senate's top man on foreign affairs looked more like the secretary of state. And naturally, political observers wondered where was the secretary of state?

Kerry took pains to convey that he did not upstage Clinton on the world stage. Rather, he said, she facilitated the shuttle diplomacy. But White House press secretary Robert Gibbs did not help matters. "Secretary Kerry," Gibbs gaffed to reporters.

Clinton's quiet role has not gone unnoticed. Many Clinton watchers raised their eyebrows when...]]> Thu, 22 Oct 2009 22:00:00 -0700 The chief issue of the day was whether to escalate the war further or de-escalate. There were economic concerns. And there was a president "too intent on a search for consensus," as historian Robert Dallek wrote in his biography of Lyndon Johnson.

It was early May 1966. The first time Johnson's public approval rating fell below 50 percent in the Gallup Poll. A month later, on June 9, Press Secretary Bill Moyers informed Johnson that, "Conversations with Gallup, Harris, and other professionals in the poll business confirm only one thing: Our standing is down and likely to drop further."

It will not, of course, take this president an entire month to digest the same bad news....]]> Sun, 18 Oct 2009 22:00:00 -0700 Something's amiss when Michael Moore and Larry Kudlow see the same problem.

Last Thursday, Kudlow headlined his CNBC show: "Capitalism in Peril?" He spoke of the disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street. It's "the tale of two Americas," Kudlow said. For a moment, Kudlow seemed to be channeling John Edwards. Hell had frozen over.

On the other end of the spectrum is Moore. "Capitalism, a love story," is a disjointed documentary about capitalism's casualties and corruptions. Moore confuses capitalism with its perversion. But when the devout anti-capitalist and the uber-capitalist are highlighting many of the same perversions, it's time we pay attention.

Kudlow's...]]> Tue, 13 Oct 2009 22:00:00 -0700 Barack Obama's fan club has endured deserved criticism. The Nobel Peace Prize made the joke almost too easy. Love is indeed blind, for liberals globally. But lest we forget, conservatives too have known blind love.

Before Obamaites there were Reaganites. "People can be accused of being unreasonably ga-ga over Obama," said Fred Greenstein, a Princeton University presidential historian. "One forgets, there was a similar response to leaders on the right; and Reagan was perhaps the best example."

Ronald Reagan won an historic tax cut during his first year in office. But the next year, amid a deep recession, he backed a $100 billion tax hike. Reagan was a fiscal conservative who...]]> Wed, 07 Oct 2009 22:00:00 -0700 Most presidents become a joke at some point. It's a matter of when and how. Both points should concern this president. In Winston Churchill's words, "a joke is a very serious thing." Or it can be, when the joke is about a very serious thing.

"Saturday Night Live" has long been a comedic benchmark. Last weekend, SNL took its first hard hit at President Obama. Fred Armisen, who plays the president, gave an Oval Office address questioning why some critics were distraught with him transforming the country: "When you look at my record it's very clear what I've done so far and...]]> Sun, 04 Oct 2009 22:00:00 -0700 There was a startling poll on Iran last week. Many top Iranian analysts have long believed Tehran's nuclear ambitions will, more likely than not, lead to a military confrontation. What's new, Americans now agree. Cynicism is taking hold.

Americans were asked in a Fox News poll whether: "Iran can be stopped from working on a nuclear weapons program without the use of military force, or will the U.S. eventually need to take military action to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons?"

Six in 10 Americans believe "military action will be necessary." They were not stating this view as passive observers. The same...]]> Wed, 30 Sep 2009 22:00:00 -0700 Imagine a world where the famous live by separate laws. People are so captivated by fame that they argue for the absolution of, say, a child rapist--so long as that rapist is famous.

Seriously, I'm not kidding. What if a famous film director repeatedly raped a 13-year-old girl? Here's one storyline:

The director flees the United States for a life of European luxury. His fame becomes a shield. He goes on directing major films. He appears on red carpets. Everyone knows where he lives. His name is on his doorbell.

Three decades later, he's arrested. Powerful filmmakers like Martin Scorsese, Woody Allen, David Lynch and Harvey Weinstein demand his release.

Even a...]]> Sun, 27 Sep 2009 22:00:00 -0700 It's to the shame of the Democratic Party that humorist Will Rogers' famous political line remains salient: "I am not a member of any organized party--I am a Democrat."

Democrats are mired in division over the issue of the day. They disagree on how to pay for health care reform, whether companies should be compelled to pay for employee's insurance, and the proposed government insurance option.

And there is no end to the internecine battles in sight. President Obama faces a huge decision on Afghanistan. All in or begin the road out, his top generals apparently advise. But Democrats are already splitting over the war, and comparisons to Vietnam are common. This president's...]]> Wed, 23 Sep 2009 22:00:00 -0700 President Obama's five Sunday television interviews included a telling thread. "The media encourages some of the outliers in behavior, because, let's face it, the easiest way to get on television right now is to be really rude," Obama said on ABC's "This Week," repeating himself on other networks.

Obama was correct, but only in part. It's not only media that "encourages" the "outliers."

The Partisan Industrial Complex is overwhelming American politics. From the partisan media to the modern campaign, an entire industry flourishes on polarization. Partisanship earns and spends billions annually.

As Ronald Brownstein wrote in "The Second Civil War," the "country has...]]> Fri, 18 Sep 2009 22:00:00 -0700 He is of a diaspora. Has often been compared to Star Trek's Vulcans. His pedigree is that of the overachieving Ivy Leaguer. A lawyer who married a lawyer. He emerged in Chicago activism as a disciple of Jewish urban organizer Saul Alinsky. He is Hyde Park liberal--urbane with a preference for arugula. An intellectual's intellectual, in virtue and in vice.

This is a man famous for his Talmudic-like mind. He deconstructs, deduces, feels compelled to cover all sides of a debate. His humor leans heavily on self-deprecation. He even held the first Passover Seder inside the White House.

Two of his closest advisers are Jewish men--David Axelrod, cast as the archetypal sophist, and...]]> Sun, 13 Sep 2009 22:00:00 -0700 Tuesday marks one year since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers brought the American economy, and by extension the world, to near financial collapse.

By year's end the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than in any year since 1931. Americans' lost a fifth of their household wealth, by far the largest annual decline since the Second World War. A record $11 trillion in U.S. personal savings was erased.

Yet the Great Recession has only mildly impacted the American mind.

One year after a recession turned to crisis, Washington has yet to institute any major economic reforms. The financial industry has reportedly returned to some of the same risky behavior that brought...]]> Wed, 09 Sep 2009 22:00:00 -0700 Barack Obama has long avoided progressives' existential causes. Not long after the 2008 campaign Obama's top strategist David Axelrod said that he was "not trying to rebuild the Democratic Party."

A couple months later Obama stood before Congress for his State of the Union address. There he outlined a vision tied to Democrats' enduring philosophical fight. Where Ronald Reagan said that "government is the problem" in his first inaugural address, Obama spoke of government as the means to solve Americans' most serious problems. But he dared not say so overtly.

Not until Wednesday night did Obama explicitly take up the deeper fight, though the fight was already his own. From...]]> Thu, 03 Sep 2009 22:00:00 -0700 The nation's top Democratic strategists are anxious. By Gallup's measure, Democrats' advantage in party identity has narrowed from 17 percentage points in January to 5 points in August. President Obama's approval rating now bobs in the low 50s. He has lost Americans' favor at a larger and faster rate than most presidents since World War II.

It's not Republicans who concern Democrats. It's the return of old questions surrounding Democrats' competence.

Democratic political veterans believe Obama must, in a matter of months, begin to show the big reform to match his campaign's big promise. It explains why Democratic strategists almost uniformly subscribe to the prevailing view...]]> Wed, 12 Aug 2009 22:00:00 -0700 Americans are of two distinct minds on health care reform.

Most Americans continue to support major reform. But multiple polls show they are also overwhelmingly satisfied with the quality of their personal medical care, as well as their insurance coverage.

In Depth: 9 Ways Cities Are Coping with the Recession

In Depth: States with Highest and Lowest Unemployment Benefits

This health care reform paradox...]]> Sun, 02 Aug 2009 22:00:00 -0700 Fully 35 percent of Democrats believe George W. Bush had advance knowledge of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Fully 28 percent of Republicans believe Barack Obama wasn't born in the United States.

Meet the fanatical third.

The tale of two conspiracy theories is the tale of the most polarized among us. The two statistics are based on a poll apiece. Neither is an exact measure. Yet, lots of liberals say take the "birther" poll on face value. Lots of conservatives say take the "truther" poll on face value. So let's listen to both sides.

The unsurprising conclusion: you can't reason with arch partisans.

On Friday, I published a post wondering why the mainstream media...]]> Thu, 30 Jul 2009 22:00:00 -0700 There is a need to correct some of the media misanalysis regarding Barack Obama's standing in public opinion polls.

First, let's clarify where Obama stands in the public's mind. Obama's approval rating has declined to the low 50s, according to several recent polls. The rate of that decline is larger and faster than many presidents, such as George W. Bush and Jimmy Carter, as I detailed here. Obama's approval rating was average over his first half-year in office, and he stood eighth out of the 11 modern presidents on the date of his six-month anniversary in office, as I detailed here.

The problem arises from how respected reporters are digesting these numbers. One example from...]]> Thu, 30 Jul 2009 22:00:00 -0700 Am I the only one who finds it odd that the media is paying exponentially more attention to the "birther" issue today than during the campaign? There was reason to ignore conspiracy theories during the campaign. There were a great deal of lies flying around about Barack Obama in 2007 and 2008 (there were a few flying around about John McCain and Sarah Palin as well).

But the treatment of the "birthers" is peculiar. I went on Nexis and did a search of the broad "news" category of the phrase: "birth certificate" and Obama. In the past month there were 564 pieces on the subject (302 in the past week alone!). That is more than half of all the pieces on the subject written before...]]> Wed, 29 Jul 2009 22:00:00 -0700 RealClearPolitics obtained a prepared White House script for this evening's happy hour diplomacy between President Obama, Harvard Professor Henry Louis Gates Jr. and Cambridge police Sgt. James Crowley. The script was apparently prepared to brief Obama on the likely conversation. Teleprompters were set up around the picnic table. But Obama thought the press would have a field day and the Teleprompters were removed. Below is the text:

President Barack Obama: Welcome to my backyard. Not bad, huh? This is the actual picnic table where Hillary and I recently met. The press loved it. By the way, I'm sorry that we only have Bud Light at the table, Henry.

Henry Louis...]]> Wed, 29 Jul 2009 22:00:00 -0700 Barack Obama's public approval rating has fallen faster than presidents from George W. Bush to Jimmy Carter, based on a RealClearPolitics review of historical Gallup polling.

Until Obama, Carter was the last president to begin his term in the high 60s. Carter first polled at a 66 percent approval rating. He did not reach Obama's present territory until mid September, when he hit 54 percent.  Carter fell lower in late October--51 percent. And that fall occurred after the Carter administration was branded with scandal, following the Bert Lance affair.

Gallup reports today that Obama has a 52 percent public approval rating, a new low. Yesterday's three-day Gallup average...]]> Sun, 26 Jul 2009 22:00:00 -0700 Barack Obama did not herald in a "post-racial America." In fact, the trope betrayed how we confine race to superficial terms. It's the same reason Stephen Colbert has made a standing joke of not being able to "see color." Color is with us. And we cannot get past race by not directly looking at it.

Obama's presence has empowered us to take that look. Obama has not changed how we experience race. But he is changing how we see and talk about it.

In Depth: 8 Things Americans Believe in...]]> Wed, 22 Jul 2009 22:00:00 -0700 Barack Obama is a long way from his honeymoon.