RealClearPolitics - Articles by Alan Abramowitz

The False Hope of Bipartisanship

Thu, 12 Feb 2009 00:00:00 -0600

The new president is still enjoying a honeymoon with the public. According to the Gallup Poll, almost two-thirds of Americans approve of the job that he is doing so far. That's quite a change from his predecessor who left office with an approval rating of about 30 percent. Even among Republicans, Mr. Obama started his term with a 43 percent approval rating and only a 30 percent disapproval rating--which is why most Republican leaders and conservative commentators, with the notable exception of Rush Limbaugh, have been reluctant to criticize the new president too harshly, claiming that they wish him well despite their disagreements.

Don't expect the honeymoon to last very long,...

Ninety Days and Counting

Thu, 07 Aug 2008 00:00:00 -0500

Despite claims by both campaigns that they plan to compete throughout the country, however, there are good reasons to be skeptical about the possibility of a drastic change in the electoral map. That is because the colors of that map reflect the relative size of the Democratic and Republican electoral coalitions in each state and those coalitions do not change drastically from one election to the next. Thus, recent polls show that John McCain is doing very well among the same types of voters who strongly supported George Bush in 2004 while Barack Obama is doing very well among the same types of voters who strongly supported John Kerry in 2004. This can be seen in Table 1 which...

Obama's Race Problem

Sat, 10 May 2008 00:00:00 -0500

The Incredible Shrinking GOP Base

Fri, 02 May 2008 00:00:00 -0500

Cheer Up Dems! Party Is In Great Shape For Nov.

Fri, 25 Apr 2008 00:00:00 -0500

Krugman's Latest Attack on Obama

Sat, 19 Apr 2008 00:00:00 -0500

Superdelegate Math Bad for Clinton

Thu, 03 Apr 2008 00:00:00 -0500