Always a gambler, McCain rolled the dice and selected a nearly unknown governor of Alaska. Despite scant experience in foreign affairs and on the national stage, Sarah Palin electrified the conservative base of the GOP. Never happy with the maverick McCain, the base recognized that Palin held their views on abortion, guns, creationism, and other social issues. Moreover, Palin shattered the stifling stereotype of the Republican party as the home of 'old white males'. She was young, attractive, dynamic, and plain spoken. The campaign called her a 'reform governor', reinforcing part of McCain's image, and instantly, the McCain-Palin ticket became another way for voters to cast a ballot for change. Palin's potential historic first neutralized somewhat Obama's; her age (44) was even younger than Obama's (47), projecting future-orientation. McCain gave up some of his advantage on experience over Obama---since Palin could hardly be termed more knowledgeable about government than Obama (except by predictable partisans who will always find their nominee's scant resume fuller than the other party's scant one)---but the experience theme wasn't working for McCain anyway.

We won't know for sure whether Palin was fully vetted by the McCain campaign until the post-election books are published, though it certainly looks as though she was not, given the results of various press investigations over the past couple of weeks. Recent history underlines the dangers for the campaign in this. The last two 'surprise' VP nominees were disasters for their parties (Democrat Geraldine Ferraro in 1984 and Republican Dan Quayle in 1988), in part because the campaign itself and party elders knew too little to defend the VP nominees from attack. But McCain's staff learned something from the earlier examples, especially Quayle's. Journalists can be counted upon to do their duty, as they see it, and ask a lot of uncomfortable questions about an obscure nominee who might be suddenly thrust into the most powerful office on earth. They will search relentlessly for negative information, and competitively publish and air it as soon as possible. Yet the campaign knew that Republicans hate the mainstream media. Nothing would set the grassroots on fire like a media firestorm about Palin. Presto! Both the media and the GOP base responded in predictable Pavlovian fashion, and for the first time ever, McCain became the hero of the Republican Right, alongside Palin. McCain is now actually free of the need to tend to the conservative base, enabling him to go hunting for the more moderate swing independents who will actually determine the election.

Combined with McCain's convention bounce, Palin's strength among the base, and according to some (but not all) polls, her ability to attract a percentage of white women away from Obama, produced the first sustained, narrow McCain lead of the campaign. As this is written, tracking polls suggest that this bounce has flattened considerably, perhaps entirely.

Whatever the short term picture, McCain is well aware that he has a mountain to climb. When the Palin effect dies down, as all such political phenomena eventually do, he will still have to contend with the albatrosses of Bush, the economy, and (to some degree) Iraq. The financial meltdown of the past week, shocking and appalling to virtually everyone regardless of political philosophy, has given Obama his first real general election opening to return the campaign to Democratic themes. A relieved Obama can be expected to capitalize on American capitalism's deep troubles, as would any candidate in his position.

To win, McCain must keep Obama on the defensive, and for a couple of weeks he did that. McCain and his staff understand that in this environment, he cannot win with a high-minded campaign enveloped in glittering patriotic generalities. McCain must undermine Obama at every turn, unceasingly creating doubts about the Democrat so that McCain becomes the default 'change' candidate once a majority of voters have decided that Obama is not the change they desire. In a very different time of peace and prosperity and a popular incumbent Republican president, George H.W. Bush accomplished precisely this, presenting himself as the 'kinder, gentler' successor to Ronald Reagan and tagging Michael Dukakis as the unacceptable anti-flag, friendly-to-criminals, pro-ACLU candidate. In 1988 Americans chose Bush's change of emphasis rather than the more drastic philosophical change seemingly embodied by Dukakis.

The Dukakis name is being bandied about now, not by Republicans but by Democrats. In the pit of their anguished stomachs, Democrats fear they are seeing an old movie play out yet again, one they were forced to watch in 1988 (Dukakis), 2000 (Gore), and 2004 (Kerry). For the fourth time, say these Democrats, they have a high-minded nominee who won't fight back, won't gut punch, and refuses to believe that voters will buy the negative attacks being launched against him. The Obama campaign leaders have called these Democrats 'handwringers' and 'bedwetters', and they may be right. If the Obama team has indeed done the job they claim in voter registration and fundraising, they may be able to ride out the current storms and win when it counts---especially given the pro-Democratic electoral conditions. On the other hand, with the first African-American presidential nominee, they still must worry about racial leakage on Election Day. There isn't a person in the country who can truly measure that effect in advance.

One thing is for sure: If Democrats cannot win in a year like this, when can they win? If American history is the guide, the 2008 election shouldn't be close---and yet it appears to be, at least in mid-September. Appearances can be deceiving, though, and a collapsing financial superstructure can only help the out-of-power party's nominee.

In a practical sense, the election is not near to being won by either side. Fundamental factors aside, campaigns are won day by day, in the trenches. More will happen in the next seven weeks than has occurred in the past seven months. The debates are sure to draw record audiences, and the TV ads and the ground mobilizations will be of a number and intensity never before witnessed. The remaining 46 days will tell the tale.

So let's move to the Electoral College. National surveys are fun but unrevealing. Obama is back on top narrowly, after a couple of weeks with McCain in the lead. As long as the national polls have Obama and McCain close to one another, it is really what happens in the individual leaning and toss-up states that matters.

The Electoral College appears to be closing up. Those partisans who dreamed that the nation would break the Red-and-Blue mold of 2000 and 2004 might be headed for disappointment---assuming the current economic trends do not break the contest wide open in a Democratic direction. McCain is not going to carry more than a couple of Blue states (at most), and Obama is unlikely to win more than a handful of Red states. We now are fairly certain that a minimum of 42 states will keep the same partisan color that they chose in 2004. We would not be shocked if this number topped 45. That's right: After expenditures in the hundreds of millions, all the controversial events of the past four years, and the marathon two-year campaign of 2008, the map may not be radically altered.

Last spring John McCain had hopes that he could appeal to Democratic states like California, New Jersey, and Washington. Those hopes are dashed. Realistically, he can carry only Blue Michigan and New Hampshire, with outside shots at Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. He currently trails in all four, though not by much.

Barack Obama talked optimistically of winning Western states such as Montana and North Dakota, as well as Southern states such as Georgia, Mississippi, and North Carolina. We believe his chances are greatly diminished in all five of these states.

Some shifts have occurred, so let's take a look at the mid-September map as a whole.

Solid -- No Real Chance for Upset

OBAMA - WA, CA, IL, MD, NY, VT, RI, MA, CT, NJ, DE, ME, DC, HI (183 electoral votes)

Comments: Nothing has changed for Obama in this category since mid-July. Obama gained no state he didn't already have by adding Joe Biden to his ticket. Delaware is solidly Democratic.

McCAIN - ID, UT, AZ, WY, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, LA, AR, KY, WV, TN, AL, SC, MT, ND, GA, MS (163 electoral votes)

Comments: We have McCain gaining 30 electoral votes in this category since mid-July (AK, MT, ND, GA, MS). Sarah Palin has helped in her home state as well as the others. Had Obama chosen Sen. Evan Bayh of IN as his running-mate, we were prepared to move IN into the toss-up category. While some polls have suggested that McCain leads only narrowly there, we still believe it is unlikely that Obama will carry the Hoosier State in the end. Still, given its long border with Illinois, Indiana is going to be closer this year, and we have moved it out of the Solid McCain category and into the Likely McCain grouping.

Likely -- An Upset is Possible but Improbable

OBAMA - OR, MN (17 electoral votes)

Comments: Had McCain chosen Gov. Tim Pawlenty of MN as his running-mate, we were prepared to move MN to the toss-up category. But without Pawlenty, McCain is very unlikely to carry the state, despite a recent poll showing the state tied (right after the GOP Convention had been held in the Twin Cities). Similarly, McCain keeps making noises about Oregon but we see little Palin effect there, and Obama should be able to carry it.

McCAIN - Indiana (11 electoral votes)

Comments: All the states in this July category (AK, GA, MS, MT, and ND) have now firmed up for McCain. Remember that before Palin's nomination, some Alaska polls had Obama ahead in the state, or behind McCain in low single digits, but Palin will create a handsome victory for McCain. However, as we noted above, we have moved Indiana from Solid to Leaning McCain.

Leaning -- Currently Tilting to One Side but Reversible

OBAMA - IA, NM, WI (22 electoral votes)

Comments: Our guess still is that all three of these states end up in Obama's column. Wisconsin very narrowly voted for Gore and Kerry, but Obama has an excellent organization there. Public and private polls have Wisconsin close again, but Democrats get the edge here. Iowa and New Mexico voted for Bush in 2004. If only one of them switches to Obama this time, it will be Iowa, where McCain has always been weak. As a western state, New Mexico is at least open to voting for its Arizona neighbor. But Obama ought to be able to put New Mexico away, too.

McCAIN - FL, MO, NC (53 electoral votes)

Comments: McCain will have to work hard to hold these three usually Republican states. If he loses even one of them, he will be up against the Electoral College wall. His margin in MO is decent at present, and we expect him to carry the Show Me State. McCain ought to win NC, but he's not going to do it by anything like George W. Bush's double-digit margins. Reliable Tar Heel observers insist to us that the contest is surprisingly close, so we're not about to move NC into a firmer column for McCain yet. Of these three states, we wonder most about FL. Obama was weak there in the Democratic primary and McCain-tilting veterans and seniors are major forces in the state. Yet this mega-state is quirky, and as we learned in both 1996 (when it voted for Clinton) and 2000 (when...oh, you remember), the Sunshine State can reflect national trends quickly. If McCain is faltering in any one of these states in October, it will be an important signal about the likely election outcome. It is difficult to see McCain surviving the loss of a single one.

Toss-Ups-The Real Deal

CO, MI, NH, NV, OH, PA, VA (89 electoral votes)

Comments: A few of these states are Red or Blue tinged, though not enough for us to have any real confidence yet in a prediction. If you put a gun to our head---and we hope you won't, since that makes us very nervous---we would say Obama will end up carrying MI and PA. These states have such a strong Democratic base that, even with Obama's problems from the primaries, he ought to be able to secure them narrowly. On the other side, we now believe that McCain has a tiny edge in Virginia, despite a large number of new voter registrations that tilt strongly Democratic. Obama is not doing well enough in all of Northern Virginia to overcome strong resistance to his candidacy in more rural parts of the state, especially in the western quarter. This could change, and Obama is better organized in the Old Dominion than any Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976. He has the strong support of Gov. Tim Kaine (D) and Senate nominee Mark Warner (D), who is a certain winner, possibly by a wide enough margin to help Obama.

We could argue the other states either way. Obama leads most Colorado polls, but that may be an afterglow of the Democratic Convention that will fade. Similarly, Obama appears to be ahead in New Hampshire, but after the Democratic primary there in January, what fool would believe Granite State polls? All reports suggest a big pick-up in Democratic registration in Nevada, but it's too early to move this one to Obama, given McCain's Arizona address.

Notice we haven't discussed Ohio. We aren't prepared to say that other states won't make the difference this year, but it's more than possible that, for a second straight election, the Buckeye State will essentially choose the next president. There are surveys putting the state in Obama's camp, and others saying it is McCain's. No one is going to call this one until they have to do it.

Time again for our summary electoral math. The totally safe and likely Obama states have 200 Electoral Votes (EVs). For McCain, the similar total is 174 EVs. Add in Iowa, New Mexico, and Wisconsin for Obama and he has 222 EVs. Let's give McCain FL, MO, and NC, and he's up to 227 EVs. If Obama carries MI and PA, he's at 260 (ten votes short), and would need either Ohio or Virginia to win. If he carried Colorado and either NH or NV, Obama could win without OH or VA. And interestingly, Obama could lose CO, OH, and VA, while carrying just NH and NV, and achieve a 269 to 269 tie-that would very likely be resolved in the new U.S. House of Representatives in his favor (given probable Democratic gains coming in the House).

Now, on McCain's side, let's add VA to his 227, and he's at 240, 30 votes short of victory. If McCain falters in any of his Leaning states, he is likely out of the picture. But if he holds them all, his most likely path to victory at that point would be to win OH, CO, and either NH or NV. If he wins only OH and CO, the pro-Obama 269 to 269 tie is back. Should he lose OH but somehow carry PA, he would need only CO to get to 270; both NH and NV could go to Obama without effect.

Does your head hurt? Ours does, so we'll stop for now. But THE MAP will be back a couple more times before November 4th.

There can be little doubt that this is the main reason why Obama is looking at Kaine. The first state governor outside Obama's Illinois to endorse Obama for President, Kaine was immediately drawn to the Illinois senator because they are two peas in a political pod. Both Harvard Law graduates with Kansas roots, both attorneys with a central focus on civil rights, and both relatively new to the big leagues, Obama and Kaine clearly like one another and enjoy each other's company.

Obama has realized that a modern Vice President practically lives with the Chief Executive, especially in times of crisis, and he wants someone he can trust completely. One other similarity that some see is less flattering. Obama and Kaine are both supremely self-confident, and their adversaries (and even some of their friends) occasionally detect a hint of hubris and arrogance. On the other hand, we have never known a President or governor who was genuinely humble. That special quality possessed by the meek doesn't go hand in hand with high political office.

2. Emphasis on Domestic Policy

The foremost issue in the minds of voters isn't Iraq or foreign affairs anymore; it's the sour economy and domestic policy. A governor focuses daily on the key components of domestic concern--jobs, education, transportation, health care, and the like. Kaine could speak with self assurance in these fields. Not only has he served as governor, but he was on the Richmond City Council from 1994 to 2001 (when he was elected lieutenant governor), and the Council-elected mayor of Richmond from 1998-2001. As an ambassador to the urban areas of America, Kaine would have credibility.

3. Out-of-Washington Change

It has not escaped anyone's notice that the President is at 25 percent approval, the Congress is around 15 percent, and even the Supreme Court has fallen below 50 percent in some polls. Since Obama has been in Washington barely long enough to learn the street layout, he can avoid the awful, prevailing D.C. taint. Kaine adds emphasis to the 'change' theme since he has no Washington experience of any kind.

4. Virginia

For decades, analysts prematurely proclaimed that the Old Dominion had become the New Dominion, and in the twenty-first century it's finally true. Among the most improbable of 2008's toss-up states, Virginia is on the knife's edge. It is not unreasonable to expect the sitting Governor to add a couple of points to Obama's total. Kaine is popular (mid-50s in most surveys), though not wildly so, as was his predecessor, Mark Warner, who is currently cruising to a big U.S. Senate victory in the state.

Oh, it almost goes without saying that John McCain would have a very difficult time finding the 13 electoral votes he might lose in Virginia. Keep in mind that Virginia has voted Republican in thirteen of the last fourteen presidential contests (save only LBJ's in 1964), and the state is tied for the best GOP record in the nation. Even Georgian Jimmy Carter, who won all the other states of the South, couldn't take Virginia. Defeat in the New Dominion would be a major and perhaps decisive blow to McCain. Could Tim Kaine be the first VP nominee since Lyndon Johnson in 1960 to deliver a critical, toss-up home state for his ticket?

5. Special Qualities

Kaine is Roman Catholic, often described as "devout" even though he is pro-choice in effect while projecting a pro-life image and accepting of the death penalty despite personal opposition to it. Catholics are a swing vote in 2008, and Kaine's Christian religious orientation matches Obama's. This might help with the campaign's much publicized outreach to church-going Americans. Kaine is a former missionary to Honduras and he speaks fluent Spanish, which can only assist in the effort to woo Hispanics.

Kaine is more national than real Virginian (as a native of Virginia, this author can snobbishly suggest this), having been born in Minnesota, having grown up in Kansas, and having attended colleges in Missouri and Massachusetts. Therefore, Kaine has ties to three swing states (MN, MO, and VA). Kaine has a bipartisan dimension, since his father-in-law is Linwood Holton, Virginia's first Republican Governor of the 20th century, who served from 1970 to 1974. Republicans will be quick to add that Holton has long since left the party--Holton says the party left him--and he recently told this author that the only Republican he has voted for in recent times is retiring U.S. Sen. John Warner, a moderate.

Kaine is highly articulate, young (age 50, close to Obama's 46 years), and an accomplished campaigner. As a team, they will look good and make sense, much as the youthful team of Bill Clinton and Al Gore produced synergy for 1992's Democrats. Finally, fulfilling the oldest VP mandate of "first, do no harm", Kaine is squeaky clean and scandal-free, as even his enemies admit, and he is unlikely to commit gaffes or deflect attention from the presidential nominee.

There are no perfect people, and that goes double for VP picks. So Kaine brings certain disadvantages and baggage to Obama, too:

1. Lack of Experience Where It Is Most Needed

Other than the possibility of racial leakage at the polls--the chance that many white voters who would otherwise vote Democratic this year will be unable to cast a ballot for an African-American--there is no greater threat to Obama's victory than his inexperience. With fewer than four years in Washington as a senator, most of which has been spent running for president, plus a stint in the Illinois State Senate, Obama's public office resume is undeniably thin. His recent successful Magical Mystery Tour of eight European and Middle Eastern countries notwithstanding, Obama has little or no foreign policy, military, and national security experience.

Unless one counts foreign trade missions, Kaine has even less knowledge of these areas than Obama. Survey after survey has shown that Americans have a hard time, at least so far, seeing Obama in the role of commander-in-chief. A VP pick with solid background in the military or international arena would be reassuring. Kaine provides no comfort there, and it may cost Obama. Overall, Kaine has executive experience as a mayor and governor that perhaps balances Obama's purely legislative resume. Yet this would be a team whose elective resume is rather skimpy, beginning only in the mid-1990s, with just one truly consequential office each--and not a full term in it for either.

2. The Hillary Factor

Few insiders believe there is a chance Obama will pick Hillary Clinton, despite her near-tie with Obama in popular votes and delegates. The reasons are well known, including lack of personal chemistry and the potential campaign and White House role of Bill Clinton. But given continuing reluctance among some Hillary voters to back Obama, is it a risk for Obama to form a ticket with Kaine, one of his earliest and most ardent backers? Might it not make more sense for Obama to select a former strong Hillary backer--though someone of pleasant personality with whom Obama could forge a working partnership? The obvious name is Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh, who some say is also on Obama's short-short list.

3. Kaine's Governorship

Few nonpartisan observers in Virginia regard Kaine's tenure in the Governor's Office as particularly successful. Having known every governor since Albertis Harrison (1962-1966) and having studied the records of the dozen most recent governors, I would characterize Kaine's term to this point as belonging to the bottom quartile. To be fair, he has a year and a half to go, and sometimes a Virginia governor can make a final push that raises his grade considerably.

So far, Kaine has had one shining moment after the Virginia Tech massacre in April 2007, when he handled the tragedy with aplomb--easily on a par with Gov. Frank Keating's management of the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995 or Gov. Haley Barbour's skill in bringing Mississippi back from the brink of chaos after Hurricane Katrina. But otherwise, his executive tenure has recorded few significant successes and one giant, overriding failure in the transportation field where Kaine hoped to make his mark. Is Kaine solely responsible? Absolutely not.

The Republican House of Delegates, controlled by social conservatives and anti-tax partisans, has been determined not to give Kaine a major achievement. "No more Mark Warners" has been their slogan, believing that the GOP's willingness to work with Kaine's Democratic predecessor to pass a large tax hike created a political juggernaut in Warner, and deeply alienated the right-wing Republican base. Still, even Democratic legislators friendly to Kaine say privately that he is often a distant governor, certainly compared to Warner, inclined to give orders without thorough follow-up and flexibility. Whether Kaine's record as Governor would matter much to a national audience is doubtful, so this may not be much of a threat to Obama.

4. The Aftermath in Virginia

Naturally, Obama would not be especially concerned about the post-Kaine era in Virginia, and given the frustrations of his governorship, one could hardly blame Kaine for grabbing a chance to move up and out--and eventually perhaps have his own shot at the presidency. However, many Virginia Democrats are privately unhappy at the prospect of Kaine leaving in mid-term, potentially the first Virginia governor not to complete the single four-year term since it was established beginning in 1852. That is because Kaine would be succeeded by a deeply conservative Republican lieutenant governor, Bill Bolling.

Undoubtedly and appropriately, Bolling would quickly move to put his own stamp on state government with a new Cabinet, agency heads, and board appointments. Under an agreement previously reached with the now-presumptive 2009 GOP gubernatorial nominee, Attorney General Bob McDonnell, Bolling would be the Republican nominee for a full term. (The election is in November 2009.) Bolling had side-stepped a divisive GOP primary with a grateful McDonnell in order to run for reelection to the lieutenant governorship, but part of their gentleman's agreement--confirmed by both men to me at the time--guaranteed Bolling the nomination if he should succeed to the top spot before the June 2009 nominating deadline. Thus, for the first time since 1852, an incumbent Governor, Bill Bolling, would seek reelection.

While mistakes in office could always deny him the prize, the presumption would be that Virginians would not want three governors in one year. Thus, Kaine's departure could deliver a five-year Bolling governorship, quite possibly followed by a term of McDonnell. (The modern Virginia tradition has been to give a party at least two consecutive terms in the governor's chair, even though the one-term-and-out rule means that different people would be elected every four years.) The Bolling term would include the redistricting year of 2011, possibly enabling Republicans to tenure in their state legislative and U.S. House incumbents for another decade. The Senate of Virginia, narrowly controlled by the Democrats (21 to 19) and dependant upon the good health of an eighty-something incumbent, could also go Republican in 2011, with a GOP governor leading the charge. This would wipe out Democratic momentum in Virginia.

We're jumping way ahead, and perhaps this nightmare scenario for Democrats would be short-circuited somewhere along the way--but it is very much in the minds of senior Virginia Democrats as they contemplate an early Kaine departure for the Vice Presidency. And the top Republicans will hardly believe their luck, if this comes to pass. In all states, gaining the governorship is the key to expanding a party's political control. The Virginia GOP has been deep down and virtually out since 2001, but they may well owe their comeback to a Democratic presidential candidate and a Democratic governor. By the way, this same situation could develop even if Kaine is not chosen VP. A President-Elect Obama would almost certainly offer Kaine a Cabinet post. Were Kaine to take it, Republicans would begin their roll.

Democrats will happily absorb the first half of this essay, while Republicans will eagerly focus on the second half. As always, the Crystal Ball tries to walk in the middle of the road--that six-inch-wide yellow line where you get hit from both sides.

This entire piece of prose is pure speculation, of course. But hasn't it been fun?

History also suggests that the Electoral College system is only critical when the popular vote is reasonably close or disputed. That is, the College can potentially or actually upend the popular vote just in elections where the major-party candidates are within a point or two of one another (such as Kennedy/Nixon-1960, Nixon/Humphrey-1968, Carter/Ford-1976, Bush/Gore-2000, and Bush/Kerry-2004). For the purposes of this essay, we are making a similar assumption about a close election in November 2008, though it may prove to be untrue in the end. The forces at work in '08 may produce a comfortable margin that eliminates state-by-state plotting on the map.

For now, we see the following states as

Solid -- No Real Chance for Upset

OBAMA - WA, CA, IL, MD, NY, VT, RI, MA, CT, NJ, DE, ME, DC, HI (183 electoral votes)

Comments: The McCain camp has made public statements suggesting they have hopes of winning CA, CT, ME, NJ and WA. If they are serious, then they will end up wasting a lot of money because they are destined to lose all these states-yes, even their chance at a single electoral vote in Maine, where the capture of one of the two congressional districts would yield McCain a vote.

McCAIN - ID, UT, AZ, WY, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, LA, AR, IN, KY, WV, TN, AL, SC (144 electoral votes)

Comments: The Obama camp has made noises about trying to win in AR, AZ, IN, KS, LA, and ND. While the enormously superior Obama financial resources make their attempts at long-shot states more reasonable, and some early polls in Indiana have been close, we will be surprised if Obama secures any of these states. If Sen. Evan Bayh is added to the Democratic ticket, then an Obama upset in Indiana becomes a live possibility. Arizona, which has been abandoning its GOP ties in some elections, may well fall to the next Democratic candidate not running against an Arizonan. The odds are against Obama's capture of an electoral vote in Nebraska, which has a system similar to Maine's.

Likely -- An Upset is Possible but Improbable

OBAMA - OR, MN (17 electoral votes)

Comments: The only West Coast state that McCain may sensibly target is Oregon. The results there in 2000 and 2004 were close but we believe that Obama is likely to duplicate Gore and Kerry's victories. The only way McCain could steal Minnesota is by picking Gov. Tim Pawlenty as his running mate. However, even a McCain-Pawlenty ticket would have a 50-50 chance, at best, of carrying Minnesota. Pawlenty did not secure a majority of the vote in either of his gubernatorial victories (in 2002 and 2006).

McCAIN - AK, GA, MS, MT, ND (30 electoral votes)

Comments: Some Alaska polls have had Obama behind McCain in single digits, but the Republican label is probably too strong here for an upset. Several Montana and North Dakota polls have had Obama slightly ahead or in a statistical dead heat with McCain, and Obama is undeniably spending time and money in both states; we are monitoring them closely, noting that both states have two Democratic U.S. senators and Montana also has a Democratic Governor, Brian Schweitzer, who will win another term by a wide margin this November. If Libertarian nominee and former Georgia GOP Congressman Bob Barr wins his projected 6 to 8 percent in the Peach State, or if Obama chooses former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn of Georgia, Obama could have a shot at a plurality victory--but for now we'll bet on McCain there, despite one poll that has the two tied. A giant African-American turnout might shift Mississippi (38 percent black) to Obama, but that is not our gamble.

Leaning -- Currently Tilting to One Side but Reversible

OBAMA - IA, NM (12 electoral votes)

Comments: Our guess is that both of these states end up in Obama's column. If only one does, it will be Iowa. If Gov. Bill Richardson is Obama's VP choice, then New Mexico is a cinch for the Democrats. McCain has no real strength in either state, and there appears to be a Democratic trend ongoing in both.

McCAIN - FL, MO, NC (53 electoral votes)

Comments: McCain will have to work very hard to hold these three usually Republican states. If he loses even one of them, he will be up against the Electoral College wall. His margins in all are currently weak to nonexistent. In leaning them to McCain we are simply assuming that the voters' history of going GOP in presidential years might enable McCain to pull out a narrow win. Watch these states. If McCain locks them down by mid-September, he has a shot at a November upset. If a wide variety of polls--not just one--shows Obama even or ahead in one or two of the states with only six weeks to go, then McCain is in considerable trouble.

Toss-Ups -- The Real Deal

CO, MI, NH, NV, OH, PA, VA, WI (99 electoral votes)

Comments: Remember, if one candidate is garnering 52 to 53 percent of the two-party popular vote, then all or almost all of them could move in the same direction. Looking at them from the perspective of June, Obama is doing well in Colorado and Pennsylvania. McCain's only chance to carry the Keystone State is probably to put former Gov. Tom Ridge on the GOP ticket--and Ridge is pro-choice on abortion, which would generate a walk-out of fundamentalist delegates to the Republican National Convention. Michigan has a natural Democratic lean. Will the state's voters warm again to the Democrats after the national party refused to count the Wolverine primary in January? Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D) is also unpopular, and in this state, she may partly balance President Bush's high negatives. Still, McCain has a small mountain to climb in Michigan, and even adding former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, whose father was Governor of Michigan, may not make the critical difference.

Wisconsin is traditionally close, as it was in both 2000 and 2004. Obama swept the Democratic primary here, though, and he has to be rated at least a slight favorite; some early polls have Obama well ahead. New Hampshire is the one state where McCain may be able to reverse a Bush '04 loss; it was the Granite State that embraced McCain in 2000 and rescued his moribund candidacy in 2008. A couple of polls have shown McCain ahead in New Hampshire, but more recent ones have Obama leading handily. By all indications, Nevada is as tight as a tick--the normal condition in the Silver State. The great unknown is Ohio, the all-important swing state of 2004. Obama did badly in the primary in the Buckeye State, and Bush carried it in both his presidential runs, though not by much. In 2006, the Democrats swept to power and a bad economy gives Obama a clear shot at these critical 20 electoral votes. It will be difficult for McCain to win without them, but Obama's path to victory does not require Ohio.

Amazingly, given the fact that the Old Dominion has voted Democratic exactly once (1964) in the past fourteen presidential elections, Virginia is included in the toss-up list for the first time since 1976, when President Gerald Ford edged Democratic nominee Jimmy Carter by a mere percentage point. Virginia was the only Southern state not to vote for Carter, who became the first Deep-South President elected since Zachary Taylor in 1848. Thanks to dramatic population growth in Northern Virginia and university communities, this is not your father's Virginia. It is a Mid-Atlantic state rather than a Southern state.

Time for some delightful electoral math. The totally safe and likely Obama states have 200 Electoral Votes (EVs). For McCain, the similar total is 174 EVs. Add in Iowa and New Mexico for Obama and he has 212 EVs. Let's give McCain FL, MO, and NC, and he's up to 227 EVs. If Obama carries CO, MI, PA, and WI, he's already at 269 (one vote short), and would need just one of the following states: OH, NH, NV, and VA. Of course, if McCain managed to secure OH, NH, NV, and VA, we'd be at that fabled 269-269 tie. The essay following this one will discuss the calamity that might follow such a deadlock. If McCain can grab MI, PA, or WI, while holding OH, he's back in the hunt, with smaller toss-up states proving decisive.

My goodness, this is fun. And we have time for a lot more map-shuffling as we move toward the November 4th showdown.