Bloomberg /LA Times National Poll
December 20-23 and 26, 2007
Interviews - Among 2,312 adults in Iowa and 1,459 adults in New Hampshire were interviewed:
IA: Reg 2145 (+/-2) ; Dem Voters 580 (+/-4) Dem Likely Voters 389 (+/-5); Rep Voters 310 (+/-6); Rep Likely Voters 174 (+/-7)
NH: Reg 1279 (+/-3) ; Dem Voters 519 (+/-4) Dem Likely Voters 361 (+/-5); Rep Voters 442 (+/-5); Rep Likely Voters 318 (+/-6)
NOTE: "-" indicates a result of less than .5%
Column Headings:
IAREG/NHREG Iowa/New Hampshire Registered Voters
IADEM/NHDEM Iowa/New Hampshire Democratic Voters
IAREP/NHREP Iowa/New Hampshire Republican Voters
IALKL/NHLKL Iowa/New Hampshire Likely Voters
Note: Q8 To Q32 asked of Democratic Primary/Caucus Voters
Q33 To Q60 asked of Republican Primary/Caucus Voters
Q61 To Q69 asked of all registered voters
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________
(ASKED OF ALL REGISTERED VOTERS)
Q1. Many people don't pay much attention to political campaigns. How about you? So far this year, would you say you have been very interested in following the political campaign for president, or somewhat interested, or somewhat uninterested, or very uninterested in following the political campaign for president?
IAREG IADEM IAREP IALKL NHREG NHDEM NHREP NHLKL
Interest (net) 87 98 98 99 93 96 95 100
Very interested 46 74 63 84 61 71 61 71
Somewhat interested 42 23 35 15 32 25 34 29
Uninterested (net) 12 2 1 1 6 3 5 -
Somewhat uninterested 5 1 - - 3 2 3 -
Very uninterested 7 2 1 1 3 1 2 -
D/Know (net) 1 - 1 - 1 1 - -
(ASKED OF DEMOCRATS AND INDEPENDENTS/ UNDECLARED VOTERS IN ALL SAMPLES WHO PLAN TO VOTE OR LEAN TOWARD VOTING IN A DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY OR CAUCUS)
Q7. When it comes time to vote for president in the Democratic [primary/caucus] in January, which of these statements comes closest to what you are going to do: "I know I won't get to vote," or "I may get to vote, but I doubt it," or "I may get to vote and I may not," or "I'm pretty sure I will get to vote," or "I know I will vote in the Democratic [primary/caucus], unless of course something happens to me between now and then"?
IAREG IADEM IAREP IALKL NHREG NHDEM NHREP NHLKL
Pr/sure (net) 88 100 - 100 95 100 - 100
I'm pretty sure I will 21 24 - 13 19 20 - -
I know I will 67 76 - 87 77 80 - 100
Other (net) 12 - - - 5 - - -
I know I won't 2 - - - 2 - - -
I may, but I doubt it 1 - - - - - - -
I may and I may not (50-50
chance) 5 - - - 2 - - -
(ASKED OF DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY/CAUCUS VOTERS WHO ARE PRETTY SURE OR KNOW THEY WILL VOTE) I realize that the Democratic presidential caucuses and primaries for the 2008 election are weeks away. But...
Q8. If the Democratic [primary/caucus] for president were being held in your state today and the candidates were New York Senator Hillary Clinton, Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd, former North Carolina Senator John Edwards, Delaware Senator Joe Biden, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, Illinois Senator Barack Obama, Ohio Representative Dennis Kucinich and former Alaska Senator Mike Gravel, for whom would you vote: Clinton, Dodd, Edwards, Biden, Richardson, Obama, Kucinich or Gravel? I could repeat the names if you wish. Well, as of today do you lean more toward Clinton, Dodd, Edwards, Biden, Richardson, Obama, Kucinich or Gravel?
IAREG IADEM IAREP IALKL NHREG NHDEM NHREP NHLKL
Biden 4 4 - 6 2 2 - 1
Clinton 29 29 - 31 30 30 - 30
Dodd 1 1 - 1 - - - -
Edwards 25 25 - 25 18 18 - 20
Kucinich 2 2 - 2 2 2 - 1
Obama 26 26 - 22 32 32 - 32
Richrdsn 6 6 - 7 5 5 - 4
D/Know 7 7 - 6 11 11 - 12
(ASKED OF THOSE WITH A CANDIDATE CHOICE)
Q9. Are you certain you are going to vote for that candidate, or is it possible that you might end up voting for somebody else?
IAREG IADEM IAREP IALKL NHREG NHDEM NHREP NHLKL
Certain 71 71 - 72 65 65 - 67
Might vote for someone else 27 27 - 25 33 33 - 31
Not sure 2 2 - 3 2 2 - 2
(ASKED OF THOSE WITH A CANDIDATE CHOICE)
Q10. Can you tell me the one particular reason why you are supporting your candidate? By that I mean, either a personal quality or trait, or stand or position your candidate holds that has most attracted you to him or her?
IAREG IADEM IAREP IALKL NHREG NHDEM NHREP NHLKL
Nothing in particular 5 5 - 7 3 3 - 3
Agree on all issues 16 16 - 15 12 12 - 14
Friendly to business 1 1 - 1 1 1 - -
Handling the budget deficit - - - - 1 1 - 1
Economy 4 4 - 4 3 3 - 2
Education 4 4 - 3 3 3 - 2
Environmental issues 1 1 - 1 2 2 - 1
Foreign affairs 1 1 - 1 2 2 - 2
Foreign trade 1 1 - - - - - -
Gun control - - - 1 - - - -
Health care/solving the problem
of health care 13 13 - 14 19 19 - 20
Can improve homeland security - - - - 1 1 - 1
Supported war in Iraq/voted for
war 3 3 - 4 2 2 - 2
Wants troops out of Iraq as soon
as possible/timed withdrawal 4 4 - 3 3 3 - 2
Social security 1 1 - 1 - - - -
Terrorism/protect country from
attacks/national security - - - - 1 1 - 1
Unemployment/jobs 1 1 - 1 - - - 1
Best of the lot 3 3 - 2 5 5 - 5
Charismatic personality 5 5 - 6 4 4 - 4
Can win in November 2 2 - 1 1 1 - 1
Experience/track record 11 11 - 13 11 11 - 13
Family values/conservative
family values 1 1 - 1 1 1 - 1
Intelligent 3 3 - 3 4 4 - 4
Leadership quality 5 5 - 5 5 5 - 5
More liberal 1 1 - 1 1 1 - -
Morality/integrity/honesty 7 7 - 8 7 7 - 7
Fresh/new idea 3 3 - 2 3 3 - 3
Personal relationship 1 1 - 1 2 2 - 3
Represents change 2 2 - 1 3 3 - 5
Shares my values 6 6 - 7 5 5 - 4
Straight shooter/says what he
believes 6 6 - 7 5 5 - 2
Time for a woman 1 1 - 1 3 3 - 2
True Democrat 2 2 - 3 2 2 - 2
Other (specify) 10 10 - 11 12 12 - 11
Not sure 2 2 - 1 1 1 - 1
Refused - - - - 1 1 - -
(ASKED OF IOWANS WITH A CANDIDATE CHOICE)
Q11. Do you have a second choice in the Democratic caucus for president on January 3rd, or not?
Would that be Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Joe Biden, Bill Richardson, Barack Obama, Mike Gravel, or Dennis Kucinich? I could repeat the names if you wish. Well, as of today, do you lean more toward Clinton, Dodd, Edwards, Biden, Richardson, Obama, Gravel or Kucinich?
IAREG IADEM IAREP IALKL NHREG NHDEM NHREP NHLKL
N/2nd 23 23 - 20 - - - -
Biden 3 3 - 4 - - - -
Clinton 16 16 - 15 - - - -
Dodd 2 2 - 2 - - - -
Edwards 23 23 - 23 - - - -
Kucinich 1 1 - 1 - - - -
Obama 18 18 - 20 - - - -
Richrdsn 8 8 - 9 - - - -
D/Know 6 6 - 6 - - - -
(ASKED OF DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY/CAUCUS VOTERS)
Q12. Looking to the general election in November. What if Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, or Barack Obama were the Democratic candidate in the November 2008 general election for President... are there any of those three candidates that you just could not vote for under any circumstances, or would you be willing to vote for all of them? Is there another candidate that you could not support?
IAREG IADEM IAREP IALKL NHREG NHDEM NHREP NHLKL
Could not vote for any of them 7 7 - 7 10 10 - 10
Hillary Clinton 12 12 - 12 13 13 - 12
John Edwards 8 8 - 7 9 9 - 8
Barack Obama 12 12 - 13 11 11 - 10
Could vote for all of them 61 61 - 63 52 52 - 54
Not sure 4 4 - 2 8 8 - 8
Q13. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the selection of Democratic presidential candidates in the race? Is there any particular person that you would like to have run for president?
IAREG IADEM IAREP IALKL NHREG NHDEM NHREP NHLKL
Satisfied with candidates 92 92 - 91 88 88 - 89
Dissatsf (net) 4 4 - 5 8 8 - 7
Al gore 1 1 - 1 1 1 - 1
Other (specify) - - - 1 3 3 - 4
Dissatisfied/not sure 3 3 - 3 4 4 - 3
D/Know (net) 4 4 - 4 4 4 - 4
Q14. Which of the following is most important to you in choosing a candidate for president: The value of experience or the need for new ideas?
IAREG IADEM IAREP IALKL NHREG NHDEM NHREP NHLKL
Neither/something else 2 2 - 2 3 3 - 1
Value of experience 29 29 - 32 27 27 - 29
Need for new ideas 42 42 - 40 48 48 - 47
Both equally 25 25 - 23 20 20 - 20
Not sure 2 2 - 3 2 2 - 3
Q15. Regardless of your choice for president, which Democratic candidate do you think has the best chance of beating the Republican candidate in November: Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, or Barack Obama?
IAREG IADEM IAREP IALKL NHREG NHDEM NHREP NHLKL
None of them 2 2 - 3 1 1 - -
Hillary Clinton 34 34 - 31 36 36 - 36
John Edwards 22 22 - 26 14 14 - 17
Barack Obama 22 22 - 19 33 33 - 31
All equally 10 10 - 11 5 5 - 5
Not sure 10 10 - 10 11 11 - 11
Q16. Regardless of your choice for president, who do you think is more likely to produce new ideas: Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, or Barack Obama?
IAREG IADEM IAREP IALKL NHREG NHDEM NHREP NHLKL
None of them 2 2 - 2 1 1 - 1
Hillary Clinton 21 21 - 22 20 20 - 19
John Edwards 20 20 - 22 14 14 - 14
Barack Obama 46 46 - 42 57 57 - 59
Other candidate 2 2 - 3 1 1 - 1
All equally 5 5 - 6 3 3 - 3
Not sure 4 4 - 3 4 4 - 3
Q17. Regardless of your choice for president, who do you think will substantially change the way things are done in Washington: Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, or Barack Obama?
IAREG IADEM IAREP IALKL NHREG NHDEM NHREP NHLKL
None of them 4 4 - 5 9 9 - 8
Hillary Clinton 25 25 - 24 24 24 - 24
John Edwards 24 24 - 27 14 14 - 17
Barack Obama 36 36 - 33 44 44 - 44
Other candidate 2 2 - 2 - - - -
All equally 5 5 - 7 3 3 - 3
Not sure 4 4 - 2 6 6 - 4
Q18. Regardless of your choice for president, who do you think has more honesty and integrity: Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, or Barack Obama?
IAREG IADEM IAREP IALKL NHREG NHDEM NHREP NHLKL
None of them 2 2 - 3 2 2 - 2
Hillary Clinton 21 21 - 21 18 18 - 18
John Edwards 29 29 - 28 21 21 - 21
Barack Obama 30 30 - 26 37 37 - 39
Other candidate 3 3 - 4 3 3 - 3
All equally 11 11 - 14 12 12 - 12
Not sure 4 4 - 4 7 7 - 5
Q19. Regardless of your choice for president, who do you think has the right experience to be president: Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, or Barack Obama?
IAREG IADEM IAREP IALKL NHREG NHDEM NHREP NHLKL
None of them 3 3 - 3 5 5 - 5
Hillary Clinton 48 48 - 47 47 47 - 45
John Edwards 21 21 - 24 13 13 - 15
Barack Obama 10 10 - 7 18 18 - 17
Other candidate 3 3 - 4 3 3 - 4
All equally 10 10 - 12 8 8 - 9
Not sure 4 4 - 3 6 6 - 5
Refused 1 1 - - - - - -
Q20. Regardless of your choice for president, who do you think would be best at fighting terrorism and protecting national security: Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, or Barack Obama?
IAREG IADEM IAREP IALKL NHREG NHDEM NHREP NHLKL
None of them 2 2 - 3 3 3 - 4
Hillary Clinton 36 36 - 35 37 37 - 36
John Edwards 21 21 - 23 12 12 - 14
Barack Obama 19 19 - 17 23 23 - 23
Other candidate 2 2 - 3 4 4 - 4
All equally 10 10 - 12 8 8 - 9
Not sure 10 10 - 7 13 13 - 10
Q21. Regardless of your choice for president, who do you think would be best at handling the economy: Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, or Barack Obama?
IAREG IADEM IAREP IALKL NHREG NHDEM NHREP NHLKL
None of them 2 2 - 3 1 1 - 1
Hillary Clinton 40 40 - 42 40 40 - 40
John Edwards 27 27 - 26 15 15 - 19
Barack Obama 18 18 - 16 25 25 - 23
Other candidate 2 2 - 3 2 2 - 3
All equally 5 5 - 6 5 5 - 5
Not sure 6 6 - 4 12 12 - 9
Q22. Regardless of your choice for president, who do you think would be best at handling health care: Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, or Barack Obama?
IAREG IADEM IAREP IALKL NHREG NHDEM NHREP NHLKL
None of them 2 2 - 3 2 2 - 1
Hillary Clinton 40 40 - 37 47 47 - 48
John Edwards 28 28 - 32 21 21 - 22
Barack Obama 20 20 - 18 16 16 - 17
Other candidate 2 2 - 3 2 2 - 3
All equally 4 4 - 4 4 4 - 4
Not sure 4 4 - 3 8 8 - 5
Q23. Regardless of your choice for president, who do you think has been best at saying what they believe rather than saying what they think the voters want to hear: Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, or Barack Obama?
IAREG IADEM IAREP IALKL NHREG NHDEM NHREP NHLKL
None of them 3 3 - 4 2 2 - 2
Hillary Clinton 22 22 - 24 21 21 - 20
John Edwards 28 28 - 30 26 26 - 26
Barack Obama 34 34 - 29 41 41 - 41
Another candidate 3 3 - 3 3 3 - 2
All equally 6 6 - 6 4 4 - 5
Not sure 4 4 - 4 3 3 - 4
Q24. Regardless of your choice for president, who do you think would be best at handling the war in Iraq: Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, or Barack Obama?
IAREG IADEM IAREP IALKL NHREG NHDEM NHREP NHLKL
None of them 4 4 - 4 3 3 - 5
Hillary Clinton 33 33 - 32 34 34 - 37
John Edwards 23 23 - 24 15 15 - 17
Barack Obama 22 22 - 18 27 27 - 28
Other candidate 5 5 - 8 3 3 - 2
All equally 6 6 - 7 7 7 - 3
Not sure 7 7 - 7 11 11 - 8
Q25. Regardless of your choice for president, who do you think would be best on handling foreign trade: Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, or Barack Obama?
IAREG IADEM IAREP IALKL NHREG NHDEM NHREP NHLKL
None of them 2 2 - 2 1 1 - 1
Hillary Clinton 40 40 - 39 41 41 - 40
John Edwards 24 24 - 26 14 14 - 18
Barack Obama 15 15 - 13 22 22 - 22
Other candidate 4 4 - 6 3 3 - 4
All equally 3 3 - 4 3 3 - 2
Not sure 12 12 - 10 16 16 - 13
Q26. Do you think Hillary Clinton is well prepared for the job of president of the United States, or does she need a few more years to prepare, or will she never be prepared enough?
IAREG IADEM IAREP IALKL NHREG NHDEM NHREP NHLKL
Prepared well enough 79 79 - 80 81 81 - 82
Needs a few more years 6 6 - 5 7 7 - 6
Never be prepared enough 11 11 - 12 9 9 - 10
Not sure 4 4 - 3 3 3 - 2
Q27. Do you think Barack Obama is well prepared for the job of president of the United States, or does he need a few more years to prepare, or will he never be prepared enough?
IAREG IADEM IAREP IALKL NHREG NHDEM NHREP NHLKL
Prepared well enough 43 43 - 40 50 50 - 50
Needs a few more years 48 48 - 50 41 41 - 42
Never be prepared enough 4 4 - 5 5 5 - 6
Not sure 5 5 - 5 4 4 - 2
Q28. When voting in your state's primary or caucus, would you only vote for a candidate who agrees with your position on the timing of a troop withdrawal from Iraq, or would you vote for a candidate who held a different position than you on the timing of a troop withdrawal from Iraq, but agreed with you on most other issues?
Some voters have a specific issue that is so important to them that they will only consider voting for candidates who share their view. What about you?
IAREG IADEM IAREP IALKL NHREG NHDEM NHREP NHLKL
Candidate must agree 30 30 - 28 32 32 - 32
Candidate can differ 59 59 - 60 57 57 - 58
Not sure 10 10 - 11 9 9 - 8
Refused 1 1 - 1 2 2 - 2
Q29. When voting in your state's primary or caucus, would you only vote for a candidate who agrees with your position on illegal immigration, or would you vote for a candidate who held a different position than you on illegal immigration, but agreed with you on most other issues?
IAREG IADEM IAREP IALKL NHREG NHDEM NHREP NHLKL
Candidate must agree 22 22 - 18 23 23 - 23
Candidate can differ 66 66 - 71 67 67 - 69
Not sure 11 11 - 11 9 9 - 6
Refused 1 1 - - 1 1 - 2
Q30. In your opinion, do you think Barack Obama's race will be an underlying issue in his bid to win the presidential nomination, or will it not be a factor? Will it be a positive or a negative factor for him?
IAREG IADEM IAREP IALKL NHREG NHDEM NHREP NHLKL
Issue - positive 16 16 - 12 18 18 - 13
Issue - negative 26 26 - 29 26 26 - 29
Not an issue 46 46 - 48 45 45 - 49
Not sure 11 11 - 11 10 10 - 9
Refused 1 1 - - 1 1 - -
Q31. In your opinion, do you think Hillary Clinton's gender will be an underlying issue in her bid to win the presidential nomination, or will it not be a factor? Will it be a positive or a negative factor for her?
IAREG IADEM IAREP IALKL NHREG NHDEM NHREP NHLKL
Issue - positive 18 18 - 14 21 21 - 16
Issue - negative 29 29 - 28 29 29 - 28
No issue 47 47 - 52 42 42 - 48
Not sure 6 6 - 6 7 7 - 8
Refused - - - - 1 1 - -
Q32. Regardless of your choice for president, who has done more negative campaigning: Hillary Clinton, John Edwards or Barack Obama?
IAREG IADEM IAREP IALKL NHREG NHDEM NHREP NHLKL
None of them 15 15 - 14 16 16 - 16
Hillary Clinton 29 29 - 31 40 40 - 41
John Edwards 12 12 - 12 11 11 - 12
Barack Obama 11 11 - 13 6 6 - 6
Other candidate 1 1 - 1 2 2 - 1
All equally 10 10 - 10 8 8 - 8
Not sure 21 21 - 19 17 17 - 16
Refused 1 1 - - - - - -
(ASKED OF REPUBLICANS AND INDEPENDENTS/ UNDECLARED VOTERS IN ALL SAMPLES WHO PLAN TO VOTE OR LEAN TOWARD VOTING IN A REPUBLICAN PRIMARY OR CAUCUS)
Q33. When it comes time to vote for president in the Republican [primary/caucus] in January, which of these statements comes closest to what you are going to do: "I know I won't get to vote," or "I may get to vote, but I doubt it," or "I may get to vote and I may not," or "I'm pretty sure I will get to vote," or "I know I will vote in the Republican [primary/caucus], unless of course something happens to me between now and then"?
IAREG IADEM IAREP IALKL NHREG NHDEM NHREP NHLKL
Pr/sure (net) 90 - 100 100 95 - 100 100
I'm pretty sure I will 20 - 22 8 16 - 17 -
I know I will 70 - 78 92 79 - 83 100
Other (net) 10 - - - 5 - - -
I know I won't 3 - - - 2 - - -
I may, but I doubt it 3 - - - 1 - - -
I may and I may not (50-50
chance) 3 - - - 2 - - -
(ASKED OF REPUBLICANS AND REPUBLICAN PRIMARY/CAUCUS VOTERS WHO ARE PRETTY SURE OR KNOW THEY WILL VOTE)
Q34. If the Republican [primary/caucus] for president were being held in your state today and the candidates were former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, California Congressman Duncan Hunter, Arizona Senator John McCain, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson, or Texas Representative Ron Paul for whom would you vote: Giuliani, Huckabee, Hunter, McCain, Romney, Thompson or Paul? I could repeat the names if you wish. Well, as of today do you lean more toward Giuliani, Huckabee, Hunter, McCain, Romney, Thompson or Paul?
IAREG IADEM IAREP IALKL NHREG NHDEM NHREP NHLKL
Giuliani 6 - 6 8 14 - 14 17
Huckabee 37 - 37 36 9 - 9 12
Hunter 1 - 1 2 1 - 1 1
McCain 11 - 11 8 21 - 21 20
Paul 2 - 2 1 6 - 6 4
Romney 23 - 23 28 34 - 34 34
Thompson 11 - 11 10 4 - 4 4
D/Know 9 - 9 7 11 - 11 8
(ASKED OF REPS WITH A CANDIDATE CHOICE)
Q35. Are you certain you're going to vote for that candidate, or is it possible that you might end up voting for somebody else?
IAREG IADEM IAREP IALKL NHREG NHDEM NHREP NHLKL
Certain 72 - 72 66 57 - 57 58
Might vote for somebody else 25 - 25 28 42 - 42 41
Not sure 3 - 3 6 1 - 1 1
(ASKED OF REPS WITH A CANDIDATE CHOICE)
Q36. Can you tell me the one particular reason why you are supporting your candidate? By that I mean, either a personal quality or trait, or stand or position your candidate holds that has most attracted you to him or her? Any other reason?
IAREG IADEM IAREP IALKL NHREG NHDEM NHREP NHLKL
Nothing in particular 5 - 5 7 4 - 4 4
Agree on issues 12 - 12 10 10 - 10 10
Friendly to business 2 - 2 - 2 - 2 1
Budget deficit 1 - 1 - 2 - 2 2
Economy 2 - 2 2 5 - 5 3
Education - - - 1 - - - 1
Environmental issues 2 - 2 3 - - - 1
Foreign affairs 5 - 5 4 6 - 6 7
Foreign trade 1 - 1 1 - - - 1
Gun control - - - - 1 - 1 -
Health care - - - - 2 - 2 2
Can improve homeland security 2 - 2 3 3 - 3 4
Opposed to abortion/pro-life 4 - 4 5 2 - 2 2
Supported war in Iraq 1 - 1 1 1 - 1 2
Keep troops in Iraq/supported
surge 1 - 1 2 - - - -
Social security - - - - 1 - 1 1
Taxes/support Bush tax cuts 2 - 2 1 2 - 2 3
Terrorism/national security 4 - 4 4 3 - 3 3
Best of the lot 2 - 2 2 3 - 3 3
Charismatic 3 - 3 1 1 - 1 1
Can win in november 1 - 1 - - - - 1
Experience/track record 5 - 5 4 15 - 15 16
Family values 8 - 8 8 7 - 7 8
Gay/lesbian issues - - - - 1 - 1 1
Intelligient - - - - 2 - 2 2
Leadership quality 3 - 3 2 7 - 7 9
Military background - - - - 3 - 3 3
Conservative 3 - 3 3 4 - 4 4
Morals/integrity/honesty 14 - 14 17 10 - 10 11
Personal relationship 2 - 2 4 2 - 2 <