USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
POST-CONVENTIONS POLL
-- FINAL TOPLINE --
Timberline: 927245
F: 032
Princeton Job #: 08-09-031
Jeff Jones, Lydia Saad
September 5-7, 2008
Results are based on telephone interviews with –1,022—national adults, aged 18+, conducted September 5-7, 2008. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
For results based on the – 557—national adults in the Form A half-sample and – 465—national adults in the Form B half-sample, the maximum margins of sampling error are ±5 percentage points.
For results based on the sample of –959—registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
Results for likely voters are based on the subsample of –823—survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2008 General Election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. The likely voter model assumes a turnout of 60% of national adults. The likely voter sample is weighted to match this assumption, so the weighted sample size is 613.
For results based on the sample of –476—Democrats or Democratic leaners, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell phone only).
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
First, we have some questions about the election for president, which will be held in November of this year.
1A. How much thought have you given to the upcoming election for president -- quite a lot, or only a little?
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Quite |
SOME |
Only |
|
No |
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2008 Sep 5-7 |
80 |
4 |
15 |
1 |
* |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2008 Aug 21-23 |
74 |
3 |
19 |
3 |
1 |
|
2008 Jul 25-27 |
70 |
2 |
24 |
3 |
1 |
|
2008 Jun 15-19 |
75 |
3 |
19 |
3 |
* |
|
2008 May 30-June 1 |
73 |
3 |
20 |
3 |
1 |
|
2008 May 1-3 |
74 |
3 |
20 |
2 |
1 |
|
2008 Apr 18-20 |
75 |
2 |
19 |
2 |
1 |
|
2008 Mar 14-16 |
75 |
3 |
19 |
1 |
1 |
|
2008 Feb 21-24 |
72 |
5 |
20 |
3 |
1 |
|
2008 Feb 8-10 |
76 |
3 |
18 |
2 |
* |
|
2008 Jan 30-Feb 2 |
71 |
3 |
24 |
2 |
* |
|
2008 Jan 10-13 |
64 |
5 |
27 |
3 |
1 |
|
2007 Aug 3-5 |
55 |
5 |
37 |
3 |
* |
|
2007 Mar 2-4 |
48 |
3 |
46 |
2 |
* |
1B-1E. LIKELY VOTER QUESTIONS NOT REPORTED
2. Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included Barack Obama and Joe Biden as the Democratic candidates and John McCain and Sarah Palin as the Republican candidates. Would you vote for-- [ROTATED: Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats (or) John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans]?
2A. (Asked of those who are undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Obama and Biden, the Democrats (or) McCain and Palin, the Republicans]?
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|
|
|
Other |
Neither |
No |
|
Registered Voters |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2008 Sep 5-7 |
46 |
50 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
|
2008 Aug 21-23 |
47 |
43 |
1 |
5 |
4 |
|
2008 Jul 25-27 |
47 |
44 |
1 |
3 |
5 |
|
2008 Jun 15-19 |
48 |
42 |
1 |
4 |
5 |
|
2008 May 30-Jun 1 |
47 |
44 |
1 |
5 |
3 |
|
2008 May 1-3 |
45 |
47 |
1 |
5 |
2 |
|
2008 Apr 18-20 |
47 |
44 |
2 |
4 |
4 |
|
2008 Mar 14-16 |
48 |
47 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
|
2008 Feb 21-24 |
49 |
45 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
|
2008 Feb 8-10 |
49 |
46 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
|
2008 Jan 10-13 |
44 |
50 |
* |
2 |
3 |
|
2007 Nov 11-14 |
47 |
44 |
* |
6 |
4 |
|
2007 Jun 11-14 |
48 |
46 |
* |
3 |
2 |
|
2007 Feb 9-11 |
48 |
48 |
* |
2 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Likely Voters |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2008 Sep 5-7 |
44 |
54 |
* |
1 |
1 |
|
2008 Aug 21-23 |
48 |
45 |
1 |
3 |
3 |
|
2008 Jul 25-27 |
45 |
49 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
|
2008 Jun 15-19 |
50 |
44 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
|
2008 May 30-Jun 1 |
49 |
44 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
|
2008 May 1-3 |
47 |
48 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
|
2008 Apr 18-20 |
49 |
44 |
1 |
3 |
3 |
|
2008 Mar 14-16 |
49 |
47 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
2008 Feb 21-24 |
47 |
48 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
|
2008 Feb 8-10 |
50 |
46 |
* |
2 |
1 |
|
2008 Jan 10-13 |
45 |
50 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
National Adults |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2008 Sep 5-7 |
46 |
48 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
|
2008 Aug 21-23 |
49 |
41 |
1 |
5 |
4 |
|
2008 Jul 25-27 |
47 |
42 |
1 |
4 |
6 |
|
2008 Jun 15-19 |
49 |
41 |
1 |
4 |
5 |
|
2008 May 30-Jun 1 |
47 |
43 |
1 |
6 |
3 |
|
2008 May 1-3 |
46 |
45 |
1 |
5 |
3 |
|
2008 Apr 18-20 |
48 |
42 |
2 |
5 |
3 |
|
2008 Mar 14-16 |
47 |
46 |
1 |
3 |
3 |
|
2008 Feb 21-24 |
51 |
43 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
|
2008 Feb 8-10 |
49 |
45 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
|
2008 Jan 10-13 |
46 |
48 |
* |
3 |
2 |
|
2007 Nov 11-14 |
47 |
42 |
* |
7 |
5 |
|
2007 Jun 11-14 |
48 |
45 |
* |
4 |
3 |
|
2007 Feb 9-11 |
47 |
48 |
* |
2 |
3 |
NOTE: Vice presidential candidates’ names added for Sep 5-7 poll.
3. Are you certain now that you will vote for [Barack Obama/John McCain] for president, or do you think you may change your mind between now and the November election?
COMBINED RESULTS: Q.2/2A/3
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|
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Vote for Obama, may change mind |
Vote for McCain, may change mind |
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