Obama Faces Challenge Selling Recovery

Obama Faces Challenge Selling Recovery

By Caitlin Huey-Burns - February 24, 2012


Signs of an economic turnaround, improved job performance grades and the erratic state of the Republican primary field have heartened the Obama re-election campaign recently. But while the president touts an uptick in employment and paints a picture of an America on the rise, a new Democratic study cautions that the electorate isn't exactly buying it.

Indeed, the majority of voters appear to be pessimistic about the economy, the issue at the forefront of November's election. Democracy Corps, a polling firm run by prominent Democrats James Carville and Stanley Greenberg, finds 56 percent of voters want a change of economic direction. And they seem to trust Republicans more than Democrats in handling the economy by a 4 percent margin.

"The stubbornness of the Democrats’ disadvantage on the economy should be a lesson if they are really to prevail," the group says in a memo issued Friday. "These are still tough economic times."

The firm tested the strength of President Obama's messaging on the economy: His call for middle-class fairness and his assertion that jobs are returning. The latter seems to fall flat.

In his State of the Union address, the president spoke about 3 million jobs being created over the past 22 months. But participants in this survey reported they had not seen evidence of these jobs nor felt the effects of job creation.

They also expressed concern that the jobs created were temporary, and not ones that sustain the economy over the long term. One Democratic participant expressed that sentiment in these terms: "Just pouring sugar on the thing to create a few temporary jobs is going to get us no place." The pollsters say Obama's highlighting of progress on job creation "is potentially dangerous for Democrats."

But the weaker message coming from the White House, the pollsters say, is one that debuted during the State of the Union address last month -- that "America is back." A third of voters said this theme makes them less likely to vote for Obama, while less than a third said it would make them more likely. A slim majority of Democrats and less than a quarter of independents say the message encourages them to support the president.

Yet the focus on bolstering the middle class in the president's economic message appears to be resonating with Americans; more than half of voters say the theme of middle-class opportunity makes them more likely to support Obama. More specifically, 43 percent of independents agreed. The theme polls well with key swing blocs: non-college-educated voters and rural whites in districts that went for the GOP in the midterms. It was also strong among young voters, single women and minorities.

The theme of economic fairness -- asking "billionaires" to pay their fair share of taxes -- resonated in swing districts and among white seniors.

Still, the pollsters conclude that the data suggesting skepticism about the president's handling of the economy and jobs being created may hurt him in November and give Republicans fuel to challenge him on those grounds.

Caitlin Huey-Burns is a reporter for RealClearPolitics. She can be reached at chueyburns@realclearpolitics.com.

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