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That Newt Gingrich did not show up in the Florida debates. He has won conservatives in recent months because he appeared the capable combatant. But he flailed in Florida. And shrunk. There was CNN’s Wolf Blitzer asking Gingrich about his past criticism of Romney’s tax disclosures. Gingrich attempted to be Gingrich-esque: dodge with a dig at the moderator. Only Blitzer pushed back. And Romney soon said: “Wouldn’t it be nice if people didn’t make accusations somewhere else that they weren’t willing to defend here?”

The Florida debates went that way for Gingrich. He was reduced to excuses. On Friday, fresh off the two debate losses, he complained about Romney’s “factually incorrect” statements. By Monday, he was on CNN with this excuse: “The reason I seemed flat in the second debate in Florida is I have never seen a candidate for president that methodically dishonest.” Meanwhile, Gingrich and aides complained to reporters about why they lost the debates. For debate one, the audience was silenced. For debate two, the audience was stacked against him. Gingrich, the historian, should know where the buck stops. 

These anecdotes never matter in isolation. But they combine into a storyline. And that story helps undermine Gingrich as an alternative to Romney because it undercuts Gingrich's strength. Namely, his image of strength. Gingrich now looks like a bully, black-eyed and backing off. He didn’t help matters by shooting for the moon. He proposed a lunar colony in these austere times. Really, he did. And then there was the GOP establishment. Bob Dole et al. pummeled Gingrich’s past. This was the story across the media for the past week. Not Gingrich the strong but Gingrich the weak. He was the worst incarnation of his old Washington self -- unhinged, mercurial and deflated. Could Romney’s camp hope for more?

Romney appears significantly stronger than Gingrich in a general election. Yet he still must get there and prove he can do more than survive a war of attrition against flawed GOP opponents.

Romney has not yet overcome his primary obstacles. His vote share in Iowa was roughly the same in 2008 and 2012. His New Hampshire margin of victory was large, in part, because the conservative electorate was divided. His unfavorable rating is ticking up in national polls. Romney wants to pivot. Gingrich won’t let him.

Gingrich remains a contender for the nomination. He retains considerable conservative support, particularly among men and older voters. Gingrich had an awful week. Nevertheless, he will walk out of Florida with somewhere between a quarter and a third of the vote.

Conservative ranks have known Gingrich as a strongman for too long. In their eyes, he is not redefined by one weak week. Gingrich is likely to follow the southern road and contest Romney through spring. 

That’s the bite of Romney’s likely victory tonight. In the general election, Republicans will face a more practiced, more disciplined and equally financed opponent. Gingrich should be the easy part. Yet it will remain hard. Gingrich is not going away. On money and performance, we have seen how one Republican after another can lose the race. Romney still has to prove he can win it.