Share

Email Print Comments Share

Could it be happening again?

Willard Mitt Romney, born to a CEO/governor/onetime presidential candidate father and a U.S. Senate candidate mother, grew up around politics. He’s entered political fray himself throughout his career, first in 1994 when he gave Ted Kennedy a run for his money, then in 2002 when he won election as governor of Massachusetts.

After that came his 2008 campaign for president. It was expertly built by the most experienced hands, in the most methodical way, and with more than adequate resources (including major self-financing). But the product wouldn’t sell.

A stunningly parallel dynamic is unfolding in 2012.

Rick Santorum is Mike Huckabee. Newt Gingrich is John McCain.

In 2008, Romney thought he had the Iowa caucuses won -- until Huckabee, a populist preacher and former Arkansas governor, mobilized social conservatives, evangelicals and home-schoolers to snatch away the victory and earn the momentum.

This year Santorum, a former senator, did the same thing. He lived off the land, ran an underfunded, gutsy, scrappy campaign across Iowa’s 99 counties and kept Romney from earning the win he thought he could steal with a late burst of candidate time and resources.

In both years, losing Iowa prevented Romney from silencing conservative critics and gaining major momentum that would have earned favorable media coverage and boosted fundraising.

In 2008, eventual nominee McCain won South Carolina, a pivotal state in that campaign year, which led to winning Florida. The die was cast.

This year, former Speaker Gingrich, left for dead in June (and again in December), used his southern firewall and two-pitch perfect debate performances -- aided by Romney’s uneven handling of attacks on his record at Bain Capital and his puzzling decision not to release his tax returns or convincingly explain why he wouldn’t -- to win a stunning victory with 40 percent of the vote, the highest share for any candidate in the three voting states thus far.

For Mitt Romney, it looks like déjà vu all over again.

Romney’s campaign failed to manage expectations, foolishly allowing the media to believe it was possible he could run the table in the first four states. He could now end up 1-3.

The Mitt Romney Inevitability Wake was held in Columbia, S.C., on Jan. 21 at 9 p.m. After all, since 1980 South Carolina has been the best predictor of any early state in Republican presidential primaries.

If Bain Capital were invested in the Romney campaign right now, it would conclude that the product isn’t selling. But perhaps Bain believes that the competitors won’t sell either.

Gingrich is a flawed candidate with rare strengths. As RedState’s Erick Erickson has said, Romney lost South Carolina more than Gingrich won it.

Gingrich is overconfident. Romney is overcautious.

After seeking the presidency since at least 2007, Romney likely felt throughout 2011 that the nomination was his to lose, due to his prior run, his massive fundraising, his near unanimous establishment support and his organizational strength.

But as George Will noted, since 1994 Romney is 6-19 in elections where his name was on the ballot.

Presidential campaigns force humility upon their entrants in a harsh manner. Gingrich had a divorce scab ripped away. Santorum has been called a loser in light of his 18-point re-election defeat in 2006. Romney has had his faith attacked. This is how it works.

For Mitt Romney, the nomination has been within his grasp. But is it being taken away again?