Share

Email Print Comments Share

KEENE, N.H. -- If today's New Hampshire Republican presidential primary produces a surprise, it could be Jon Huntsman.

The photogenic former two-term governor of Utah and ambassador to China in the Obama administration has a long-shot chance at finishing third behind Mitt Romney and Ron Paul.

That would be a shock. Huntsman has been campaigning in obscurity for the past six months, choosing to make a do-or-die stand in New Hampshire, but gaining little steam.

However, as the pre-voting days in this no-snow winter capital dwindle to the end, the low-key Huntsman seems to be hitting his stride. Although he continues to bill himself as an “underdog,” his crowds are bigger, his smile is wider, his voice is stronger and his step has an extra spring.

“New Hampshire loves an underdog!” he shouted to a cheering crowd of about 500 Sunday night at Keene State College.

Buoyed by the cheers, he still resisted the siren song of the grandiose prediction. That would be uncharacteristic of a man who has built his reputation on modesty. “We’re going to do well here” was as far as he would go.

His wife, Mary Kaye, who has been campaigning at her husband’s side and making speeches for him for months, was a little more optimistic, though not too much. “Every day the energy gets stronger and stronger. We’re going up, not down,” she declared in the tradition of Huntsman restraint.

Modesty aside, veteran political analysts here such as Republican strategist Frank Luntz agree that the race for third place is a tossup among Huntsman, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.

Santorum, the unexpected second-place finisher to Romney in last week’s Iowa caucuses, is hoping to parlay that bounce into a strong showing in New Hampshire. But the enthusiasm that usually envelops a candidate who does well in Iowa does not appear to have materialized here. His crowds are interested, but they appear more curious than crazy about him and his conservative-values message.

And Gingrich, who finished a distant fourth in Iowa, is hoping for a recovery here. Some observers think he is gaining some steam. He engages his crowds with lectures that are laden with treatises on energy policy, relations with Iran, job-creation schemes and immigration plans. But as with Santorum, the crowds have little fire.

This brings us back to Huntsman. He campaigns with the fervor of a front-runner, engaging in a mix of appearances that include rallies, town-hall meetings and meet-and-greet sessions in everyplace from bakeries to diners.

Unlike Gingrich -- dressed in suit and tie -- and his perfectly coiffed wife, Callista, who prefer to greet supporters in an orderly and somewhat formal reception line, the Huntsmans are more relaxed. Wearing 501 Levis (W 33, L 32), Huntsman and wife Mary Kaye plunge right into crowds. They shake hands, pose for pictures and engage in friendly small talk, often sticking around for 15 to 20 minutes until the hall is nearly empty.

The Huntsmans are encountering large and enthusiastic crowds that pack town-hall meetings, rallies, restaurant visits and house parties from Concord to Keene, Keene to Hanover, Hanover to Exeter, Exeter to Manchester. They cover as many as 200 miles in a single day. And they’re buoyed by faith in the tradition that many New Hampshire voters are notoriously late deciders, often settling on their choice in the final day or two.

Huntsman puts the percentage of undecideds as high as 60.

If he finishes third, exceeding all expectations, he must be viewed by Republicans as a legitimate alternative to front-runner Romney, who has had trouble breaking clear of the pack.

Also, Huntsman’s strongest appeal has been to moderate Republicans and independents, who can vote in New Hampshire. In South Carolina, the next state in line to vote (on Jan. 21), the electorate skews to the conservative side of the spectrum, hardly Huntsman country. Polls show Romney leading there. He has a strong organization and lots of money on the ground. Huntsman has none. The underdog has put all of his chips on the New Hampshire card. A third-place finish is enough to gain headlines. We still don’t know if it will translate into votes as the race swings south. But at least it will get him a hard look from news media who up to now have largely tuned him out. That’s what New Hampshire is all about. The rest is up to him.