Obama Campaign Still Bracing for Matchup With Romney

Obama Campaign Still Bracing for Matchup With Romney

By Alexis Simendinger - January 5, 2012


Nothing in Iowa's murky caucus results amended the calculus for President Obama and his Chicago re-election team. According to their own statements Wednesday, they still believe Mitt Romney has the best chance to become the GOP nominee -- and are preparing accordingly.

On Wednesday during an event in Ohio, Obama continued the sharply partisan campaigning against Republicans in Congress that he began in September. Jabbing at obstructionism anew, the president announced an end-run around Senate Republicans to “recess-appoint” Richard Cordray to immediately take the reins of the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. The Senate blocked Cordray’s nomination in December based on conservative objections to the CFPB’s powers. Republicans immediately howled that Obama grabbed power the Constitution does not grant him to put Cordray in the job.

Obama’s campaign advisers did not lift their focus from Romney even after the former Massachusetts governor was virtually tied in Iowa by Rick Santorum -- with Rep. Ron Paul on their heels. The GOP field, minus Michele Bachmann, who withdrew from the contest Wednesday, and Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who said he will make a stand in South Carolina, made a dash for New Hampshire next, where Romney leads in the polls.

“He entered [Iowa] as a kind of weak front-runner and he leaves as a weak front-runner,” Obama campaign senior strategist David Axelrod told reporters during an afternoon conference call. Romney is the “25 percent man,” he added derisively, referring to national polls and the Iowa outcome, which had the former governor besting Santorum, a former Pennsylvania senator, by a mere eight votes out of 122,000 cast.

What captured the Obama campaign’s attention about Iowa -- and seemed to garner their grudging respect -- was Romney’s ability to fund negative ads through his own campaign war chest and a super PAC organized by supporters. The political action committee is supposed to be untethered from the candidate’s control by law, but the Obama campaign speaks of the operations as if they are observably coordinated.

The Romney-inspired attack ads eviscerated Newt Gingrich’s bid to win in Iowa, where polls had shown the former House speaker leading until the final week. Axelrod pronounced the negative advertising “very effective” in knocking out a key challenger. Santorum’s long odds and his patient retail politicking in the Hawkeye State allowed him to slip into Romney’s lane at the finish line, despite being vastly outspent. Obama’s team predicted Santorum will be the next target of advertising intended to steer the nomination to Romney.

The pro-Romney PAC Restore Our Future invested $2.8 million in Iowa ads, compared with $1.5 million spent by Romney’s presidential campaign, according to research compiled by NBC News with Smart Media Group Delta, a media ad tracking firm. When the ads began running against Gingrich on Dec. 8, he was at 26 percent in the polls and surging. By caucus night, his support had plummeted to 13 percent, and Gingrich let everyone know whom he blamed for the bombardment.

The Romney weaponry trained on Gingrich -- and the target’s long, checkered public record -- could just as efficiently hit the president this year as he attempts to persuade voters that he deserves a second term because his administration has “a lot more work to do.” Three-quarters of the public say the country is heading in the wrong direction, while unemployment remains stubbornly high at 8.6 percent. Although consumer confidence perked up in December, some analysts have suggested that the sunnier outlook could actually help nudge the unemployment rate higher (Americans too discouraged to look for work, and thus no longer counted by the Labor Department as unemployed, could have rejoined the job hunt -- and the jobless count). The December report will be released Friday morning.

The president’s Chicago-based campaign team has drafted regional scenarios it believes could guide Obama to at least 270 electoral votes in November, but each path foresees a close contest with a Republican nominee in key swing states. Negative advertising funded by the eventual GOP nominee, together with well-financed Republican assaults by outside groups, will impact voter perceptions about Obama’s first term, especially in up-for-grabs states that will decide the winner.

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Alexis Simendinger covers the White House for RealClearPolitics. She can be reached at asimendinger@realclearpolitics.com.

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