Romney, Paul Close in Iowa; Gingrich Falls to Fifth

Romney, Paul Close in Iowa; Gingrich Falls to Fifth

By Caitlin Huey-Burns - December 30, 2011


As the last full week of campaigning before the Iowa caucuses reaches its close, a new poll finds Mitt Romney and Ron Paul running virtually even in the Hawkeye State. And former Sen. Rick Santorum, who has run an aggressive underdog campaign in Iowa, finds himself in third place with just four days until voters head to their precincts.

Romney holds a slight edge over Paul, 23 percent to 21 percent, among likely caucus-goers, according to a new NBC News/Marist poll released Friday. But the former Massachusetts governor's lead is within the survey's margin of error.

Santorum picks up 15 percent of the support while Texas Gov. Rick Perry gets 14 percent. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has lost half his support since late last month, when an NBC News/Marist poll showed him leading the field in Iowa with 26 percent. He now sits in fifth place with 13 percent. Romney came in second with 18 percent support in the late November poll while Paul had 17 percent. In that poll, Santorum garnered just 6 percent of the support.

In the current poll, Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann has 6 percent, and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman has 2 percent.

In a GOP primary where conservatism is king, Santorum is seen as the truest conservative in this race by 23 percent of the likely caucus-goers. Twenty-one percent say they same of Paul while 16 percent say the same of Bachmann. Only 7 percent see Romney as "the true conservative" in the race, and 6 percent say the same of Gingrich.

For this poll, Marist surveyed 425 likely Republican caucus-goers from Dec. 27-28. The sampling error is plus or minus 4.8 percentage points. 

Caitlin Huey-Burns is a reporter for RealClearPolitics. She can be reached at chueyburns@realclearpolitics.com.

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