Poll Shows Three-Way Tie in Iowa

Poll Shows Three-Way Tie in Iowa

By Caitlin Huey-Burns - December 29, 2011


A new survey taken five days before the Iowa caucuses finds Ron Paul, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich tied for the lead in the Hawkeye State.

According to an Insider Advantage poll of likely caucus-goers, the Texas congressman, the former Massachusetts governor and the former House speaker each has 17 percent of the support.

The remaining candidates poll close behind the leaders. Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum -- who dominated the Thursday morning news cycle after a CNN poll showed him in third place in Iowa -- gets 13 percent in this poll. Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann garners 12 percent, and Texas Gov. Rick Perry picks up 11 percent. Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman gets 3 percent, though he is not campaigning in Iowa. Seven percent haven't formed an opinion about any of the candidates yet.

Ron Paul leads his fellow front-runners in the poll among independents, attracting 33 percent of the support. Santorum polls second among this group with 15 percent. Gingrich gets 13 percent, and Romney receives 10 percent. Romney polls the highest among registered Republicans, with 21 percent. Gingrich gets 18 percent, and Santorum has 14 percent.

Romney wins the plurality of the female vote with 23 percent. Gingrich gets 17 percent, and Santorum has 16 percent. Paul polls best among males, taking 23 percent of the support. Gingrich garners 17 percent, and Bachmann gets 16 percent.

Insider Advantage surveyed 429 likely voters on Dec. 28. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.7 percentage points.

Caitlin Huey-Burns is a reporter for RealClearPolitics. She can be reached at chueyburns@realclearpolitics.com.

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