Will Endorsements Boost Santorum in Iowa?

Will Endorsements Boost Santorum in Iowa?

By Scott Conroy - December 22, 2011


Of the six Republican presidential candidates vying to win the Iowa caucuses, Rick Santorum is the only one who has never led in a single poll conducted in the nation's first voting state.

For months, Santorum has spent far more time and effort in Iowa than any other of his GOP foes, trudging through sparsely attended events in far-flung rural counties, but without much to show for his labors.

Meanwhile, better-funded candidates have used their strong debate performances and financial advantages to maintain the spotlight, leaving longtime caucus veterans to wonder whether the old rules of how to run a winning campaign in the state no longer apply.

But as Newt Gingrich has become the latest front-runner to get knocked off his Iowa perch, conversations with campaign staffers and observers of Iowa politics reveal a growing sense that Santorum might finally have a shot at challenging Gingrich, Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann for one of the top-three slots in the Jan. 3 voting.

Though it is easy to exaggerate the importance of endorsements, the support Santorum has picked up recently from key Hawkeye State officials could create enough momentum -- both real and perceived -- to swing caucus-goers his way.

Earlier this month, Santorum earned the backing of Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz, a rising star in the state party who endorsed Mitt Romney in the 2008 cycle.

On Monday, two prominent social conservatives -- head of the Family Leader Bob Vander Plaats and Iowa Family Policy Center President Chuck Hurley -- added their names to the growing list of Santorum’s Iowa endorsers.

Vander Plaats, who chaired Mike Huckabee’s successful 2008 Iowa campaign and ran for governor in 2010, is among the most prominent evangelical voices in Iowa, and his endorsement was highly sought-after.

In an interview with RCP, Vander Plaats indicated that he was fully investing his own clout in helping Santorum make a final push in Iowa.

“I’m really trying to mobilize the key grass-roots activists across the state, and I’m pleasantly surprised by how many have said when I call them, ‘I was thrilled to hear your endorsement. I’m with him. Tell me what to do,’ ” Vander Plaats said. “I think there’s a chance here. I really do. It was bubbling under the surface, but I think once we pop that bubble, you’re going to see a lot of things happening for Santorum.”

Santorum this week cracked 10 percent for the first time in two Iowa polls, and a super PAC that is backing his candidacy boosted its initial $200,000 TV advertising buy in the state with an additional $150,000, according to The Daily.

Though Santorum’s ad campaign is a pittance compared to what Romney, Rick Perry, and Ron Paul have spent in the state, Vander Plaats predicted that contributions would increase once more grass-roots conservatives began to view the former Pennsylvania senator as a viable candidate.

“Once we give him a stamp of approval and a believability factor, I think the money -- he’ll be able to raise that,” Vander Plaats said.

Vander Plaats said that he was encouraging Santorum supporters to donate either directly to the campaign or to the Red White and Blue Fund -- the super PAC that is backing his candidacy.

Responding to a rumor -- denied Thursday by the Family Leader -- Vander Plaats said he had not encouraged any of the GOP candidates to drop out of the race but had instead raised the prospect that Santorum, Michele Bachmann, and Perry might consider “teaming up” as a way to consolidate the conservative vote behind one standard-bearer.

Bachmann and Perry have shown renewed signs of life in recent days, and their evident staying power figures to blunt some of Santorum’s progress among Iowa evangelicals.

But with just a week-and-half to go and a lot of ground left to make up, Vander Plaats said that Santorum doesn’t need to win the caucuses in order to come out of Iowa with significant momentum.

“If he got a third-place finish, that would be really, really good for him,” he said. “I’d love to see him win the caucuses, and I’m not saying we can’t do that, but I think a third-place finish would be extremely strong.” 

Scott Conroy is a national political reporter for RealClearPolitics. He can be reached at sconroy@realclearpolitics.com.

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