Gingrich Holds Slim Lead Over Romney in Virginia

Gingrich Holds Slim Lead Over Romney in Virginia

By Caitlin Huey-Burns - December 21, 2011


Newt Gingrich leads Mitt Romney by five points in Virginia, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday.

The former House speaker attracts 30 percent support from Old Dominion voters while the former Massachusetts governor garners 25 percent. Texas Rep. Ron Paul places a distant third with 9 percent. Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann tie with 6 percent. None of the remaining candidates polls above 4 percent.

By a nine-point margin, Republican voters feel Romney would do a better job than Gingrich handling the economy. But Gingrich gets better grades than his chief rival on foreign policy (49 percent to 18 percent), leadership (38 percent to 29 percent), and having the knowledge and experience to be president (48 percent to 25 percent).

Still, Gingrich isn't popular with registered Virginia voters: 45 percent view him unfavorably while only 29 percent view him favorably. He does much better among Republicans -- 62 percent view him favorably -- but struggles with the key constituency of independents -- only 25 percent view him favorably while 51 percent view him unfavorably. Romney has positive favorability ratings among the three groups.

The poll comes as Gingrich is campaigning in the state, appearing in Arlington on Wednesday and Richmond on Thursday, scrambling to get enough signatures before the Thursday deadline to appear on the Virginia primary ballot. Virginians go to the polls on March 6.

While Gingrich leads his Republican rivals, he comes up short against President Obama. In a head-to-head matchup, the president leads the former Georgia congressman, 46 percent to 41 percent. Obama holds a sizable lead among independents, 47 percent to 36 percent.

Meanwhile, Romney edges the president, 44 percent to 42 percent. Independents are split evenly between the two, 41 percent to 41 percent.

"Speaker Newt Gingrich jumps into the lead among Virginia Republicans, but Gov. Mitt Romney's calling card is still that he seems to have a better chance of actually winning the White House if nominated," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, in a statement released with the poll.

The poll signals challenges ahead in Virginia for Obama, who became the first Democratic presidential nominee in 44 years to win the Old Dominion. The majority of voters -- 51 percent -- disapprove of the job he is doing, while 42 percent give him a positive grade. What's more, 53 percent say he does not deserve another four years in the White House, while 41 percent believe he deserves a second term. By a 47 percent to 45 percent margin, voters view him unfavorably, while independents are split.

Quinnipiac surveyed 1,135 registered voters, including 489 Republicans, from Dec. 13-19. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The sampling error for Republicans is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. 

Caitlin Huey-Burns is a reporter for RealClearPolitics. She can be reached at chueyburns@realclearpolitics.com.

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