Poll: Paul Leads in Iowa; Gingrich Falls to Third

Poll: Paul Leads in Iowa; Gingrich Falls to Third

By Caitlin Huey-Burns - December 19, 2011


With two weeks to go until the Iowa caucuses, Texas Rep. Ron Paul has taken the lead in the Hawkeye State and Newt Gingrich has fallen into third place.

Paul attracts 23 percent of the support from likely Republican caucus-goers, according to a new survey from Public Policy Polling (D). Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney garners 20 percent, up four points from last week's PPP Iowa poll, and former House Speaker Gingrich receives 14 percent. After leading the field with 27 percent in an early December PPP poll, Gingrich has seen his support fall in the last two polls.

Notably, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, who has campaigned in each of the state's 99 counties but has been languishing at the bottom of polls, breaks into double digits for the first time, earning 10 percent of the support, tying with Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann. Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman picks up 4 percent, and former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson gets 2 percent.

In addition to losing his hold on the top spot, Gingrich has seen his net favorability rating drop. It currently sits at negative 1 percent. Paul has been running attack ads against Gingrich in the state, calling him a serial hypocrite, while a super PAC backing Romney has been doing the same. Gingrich has also been the target of attacks from his rivals in recent debates.

Paul receives a net favorability rating of positive 16 percent. Seventy-three percent of voters say Paul has strong principles, while only 36 percent say the same for Gingrich, and 50 percent say the same for Romney.

But when it comes to which candidate has the best chance of beating President Obama in the general election, 25 percent pick Romney, 17 percent chose Gingrich and 16 percent select on Paul. Still, the majority of voters -- 56 percent -- say they will pick a candidate based on his or her positions on issues, and 32 percent say their decision will be based on the candidate's ability to defeat Obama.

PPP (D) surveyed 597 likely Republican caucus goers from Dec. 16-18. The sampling error is plus or minus four percentage points.

Caitlin Huey-Burns is a reporter for RealClearPolitics. She can be reached at chueyburns@realclearpolitics.com.

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