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The big news coming out of Tuesday night's Republican debate was former House Speaker Newt Gingrich's comments on illegal immigration. He stated, "I don’t see how the . . . party that says it's the party of the family is going to adopt an immigration policy which destroys families that have been here a quarter-century . . . and I'm prepared to take the heat for saying, let's be humane in enforcing the law without giving them citizenship but by finding a way to create legality so that they are not separated from their families."

This immediately brought to mind the September comment from Rick Perry that opponents of in-state tuition rates for children of illegal immigrants “don’t have a heart.” That stance, along with his generally poor debate performances, helped precipitate the governor’s drop in the polls. To be sure, Gingrich offered a much more eloquent defense for his position than Perry did, but the comments are nevertheless problematic for his candidacy. Here’s why:

Gingrich’s road to the Republican nomination almost certainly runs through Iowa. If he loses to Mitt Romney there, Romney will probably become the nominee; if Gingrich loses to anyone else, that candidate will likely emerge as the Republican alternative to Romney.

The Iowa caucus electorate is representative of the most conservative branch of the GOP. A near-majority of the participants consider themselves “very conservative.” More to the point, in 2008, entrance pollsters asked participants which of the following four issues were most important to them: terrorism, the economy, Iraq, illegal immigration. Amid two wars and a recession, illegal immigration came in with a plurality of 33 percent (the economy was second with 26 percent, terrorism third with 21 percent, and Iraq fourth with 17 percent). While John McCain did fairly well with the other three cohorts of voters, he received just 4 percent support among the “illegal immigration” voters. These voters represented the strongest base of support for Mike Huckabee, who won the caucuses.

With the subsequent economic plunge, it is possible that illegal immigration has faded as an important concern, although it is certainly wrapped up in the issue of joblessness. But I doubt if the attitude has faded completely. This is a potential problem for Gingrich, and it provides an opening for Romney who, incidentally, ran best among “illegal immigration” voters in 2008, and overall finished right behind Huckabee.