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Sen. John McCain, a former Navy pilot and prisoner of war, captured the lion's share of the millions of ballots cast by active-duty military and veterans in 2008. His leg-up with that demographic was no secret well before Election Day. Now comes a question for 2012: Will a Republican presidential nominee do as well or better challenging commander-in-chief Obama among military voters?

Quite likely yes, judging from anecdotal evidence and assessments by at least one expert who has studied active-duty and veteran military voting trends over decades.

“It’s a rule of thumb: If the American public is shifting one way or another, the military is likely shifting that same way,” albeit more slowly than the overall electorate, said Duke University political scientist Peter Feaver, who has written extensively about civil-military relations and national security.

“To the extent that [Obama] had little support within the military in 2008, it’s not likely to be much stronger now, with the exception of a few narrowly drawn interest groups, such as gays,” he said, referring to Obama backing the repeal of “Don’t ask, don’t tell,” the 1993 law barring gays from serving openly in the military.

“I don’t think he’s substantially improved the number of people who are veterans or military who are likely to vote for him over another candidate, provided that the Republicans nominate someone who passes the commander-in-chief test -- a plausible candidate,” Feaver added.

The president, who gained national attention opposing the war in Iraq as an Illinois senator, presents an interesting choice within the military community, particularly younger, African American, and enlisted military who trend more Democratic than elite officers and older veterans over time.

Is Obama a dovish liberal who is withdrawing U.S. forces from war zones precipitously and under damaging timelines, or is he a hawkish Democrat who has kept U.S. troops fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan too long?

Is he the gutsy commander-in-chief who risked lives and his presidency to kill the world’s most famous terrorist, or a tentative leader who reluctantly committed U.S. air power to aid Libya’s rebels? Is he an advocate for right-sizing defense spending, or will he hollow-out the nation’s defense capacities if given a second term? Is Obama leading the country out of an economic morass, or digging the hole deeper?

As commander-in-chief, he emulated President Bush’s war footing beyond the wildest imaginings of some in his liberal Democratic base, even as he now declares the Iraq war effectively over and pledges to bring most troops out of Afghanistan before the election. Obama earned more applause from the GOP than he did from Democrats after Osama bin Laden’s demise, according to the Gallup Organization. He won grudging kudos after sidestepping Congress to partner with NATO to help end the bloody regime of Moammar Gaddafi.

After three years in office as a wartime president, Obama now has the ample national security experience he lacked as a candidate. Suddenly, his GOP challengers are on the other side of that divide. Among them, only Gov. Rick Perry and Rep. Ron Paul, both from Texas, served in uniform, and Perry has taunted Obama along the campaign trail for not joining the military. Polls show that the Republican Party brand continues to do well on national security terrain, even after years of Democratic efforts to recast the party on defense.

If former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney becomes the GOP nominee next year, the matchup against Obama would present voters with something rare in American history: Neither man has ever worn a military uniform.