A Lot on the Line for Candidates in N.H. Debate

A Lot on the Line for Candidates in N.H. Debate

By Erin McPike - October 11, 2011


There's a lot more riding on tonight's Republican presidential primary debate at Dartmouth College in New Hampshire than a test of strength for Rick Perry following a trio of weak debate performances last month. Jon Huntsman and Mitt Romney have plenty at stake, as well.

Huntsman is slowly on the rise in New Hampshire, but he has yet to make the splash needed to break out of the lower tier of candidates. He recently moved his campaign headquarters from Florida to the Granite State, underscoring the importance of a victory for him there. Following the well-received rollout of his economic plan in September and a foreign policy speech Monday, he has to make a move if he hopes to compete with Romney in the first-in-the-nation primary.

“Huntsman has been lost in the coverage of the back-and-forth with Romney and Perry, but this is a very big debate for him,” said Phil Musser, a veteran Republican operative and the chief strategist to Tim Pawlenty’s now-defunct presidential effort this year. “It’s his first debate in New Hampshire, where he has shown some signs of life, and he needs to show some measure of progress.”

Musser added, “The last time there was a debate in New Hampshire was in June, and a lot has changed since then. The folks there pay close attention, and he needs a good showing to continue to grow and to paper over bad process news that is coming later in the week with respect to financial reports. A bad showing could knock him out of the race; a good showing could enable him to nibble into Mitt's market share.”

Already in the past week, Huntsman has challenged Romney on foreign policy through an address that came closely on the heels of the front-runner’s. Huntsman favors a recalibration of American interests abroad, whereas Romney wants to double down on the United States’ military might. In tonight’s economic-focused debate, an exchange over defense spending and cuts could be in the offing for these two, but thus far Romney has taken few hits from his competitors, including Huntsman.

And so, Musser said, “Along with Perry, the guy with the most on the line at this debate is Huntsman.”

But if Huntsman’s challenge is how he’s received in New Hampshire, Perry’s is considerably broader. The Texas governor’s shaky debate performances to date have stalled his early momentum, when it looked like he might swamp the front-running Romney in the polls.

Said one Washington political operative who tracks fundraising closely: “There has clearly been a flight of money/endorsements to Romney. Perry needs a good performance and some positive press to stave off this negative energy and put his campaign on track. People want to like Perry -- but he's making it tough.”

Another warned that fireworks are unlikely at this debate because “Romney doesn't need to do anything and Perry will be too scared to.”

Perry may have to respond to questions about a racial epithet connected to a hunting camp leased by his family, as well as his own views of Mormonism (Romney’s and Huntsman’s religion), after one of his supporters called it a cult over the weekend. He’s also likely to be pushed on his record in Texas and his stance on immigration, as well as some of his economic policy differences with Romney.

Longtime GOP strategist Doug Heye said he’ll be looking to see how aggressive the two get with each other, and whether Perry can land any punches.

But Heye raised another important point: Will the other candidates pile on Romney, who has re-emerged as the person to beat in the race?

“Romney has been sharp and on point in each debate. Should it become a free for all on Romney and he performs well, it could be a boon for his campaign,” Heye said.

In addition, Herman Cain has recently shot to the top tier in public polling, and he’s likely to get more questions and air time tonight. His performances in the past debates have helped his cause, with the exception of some comments about foreign policy. He is likely to be tested tonight at Dartmouth, too. 

Erin McPike is a national political reporter for RealClearPolitics. She can be reached at emcpike@realclearpolitics.com.

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