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Two national Tea Party groups are split in their Nebraska Senate primary preferences as the GOP targets incumbent Ben Nelson, a key part of its effort to win control of the upper chamber.

FreedomWorks threw its support behind underdog Republican candidate and state Treasurer Don Stenberg (pictured) over establishment pick and state Attorney General Jon Bruning on Tuesday. Back in May, the Tea Party Express, an organization that played an influential but divisive role in last cycle’s Senate primaries, endorsed Bruning, the race’s nominal front-runner.

But with neither candidate able to claim the mantle of the grass-roots movement, how influential will these endorsements truly be?

“Certainly these national endorsements can help to grow support and a fundraising base outside Nebraska,” says Jordan McGrain, executive director of the Nebraska Republican Party. “The Tea Party groups in the state are obviously very independent, and my guess is that all the major candidates in the primary will have Tea Party support of some kind.”

What's not clear is whether Tea Party backing will have as much impact in the Cornhusker State as has been the case elsewhere. “I’m not convinced the Tea Party in Nebraska is something that’s absolutely crucial for the Republican candidate to win the endorsement of,” says Mike Wagner, a political science professor at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. “I think they’re an active group, a motivated group, but I don’t think they’ve demonstrated they are the kingmakers in American politics.”

The Tea Party Express helped propel Scott Brown across the finish line in the 2010 Massachusetts special election to replace Sen. Ted Kennedy, spending over $350,000 in the final weeks. But it also helped political novices like Christine O’Donnell in Delaware and Joe Miller in Alaska defeat establishment picks in Senate primaries -- only to lose in the general election.

FreedomWorks supported Miller too, but it also backed such candidates as Rand Paul of Kentucky and Marco Rubio of Florida -- when the latter was polling in single digits -- both of whom now occupy Senate seats.

In selecting its candidate for the 2012 Nebraska Senate race, the group emailed its members in the state, asking (without naming potential candidates) whom they would support. “If the responses we got back from our emails was a straw poll, Stenberg got 70 percent of the support,” FreedomWorks Executive Director Max Pappas told RCP. “That’s a pretty strong indication of where out membership is. The intensity of support was much stronger for Stenberg amongst our activists. They felt very confident in him.”

Having served two terms as attorney general and one as state treasurer, Stenberg has proven experience winning statewide elections. But he doesn’t have a successful track record when it comes to winning Senate races. He lost the 1996 Republican primary to Chuck Hagel, who went on to win election. In 2000, Stenberg won a six-way Republican primary with 50 percent of the vote but lost to Nelson by two points in the general election.

The Republican establishment has begun to coalesce behind Bruning, but he’s made some recent missteps that have attracted national attention. He compared welfare beneficiaries to scavenging raccoons and he faced ethical questions surrounding his purchase of a $675,000 lakefront home.

For both Stenberg and Bruning, third-quarter fundraising numbers will reveal more about where the candidates stand than these endorsements do. The money haul could also help generate support from influential conservative groups like Club for Growth and Sen. Jim DeMint’s Senate Conservatives Fund. Neither has backed a candidate in this race, but endorsements from these groups usually translate into significant financial backing. Club for Growth is looking carefully at this race, according to spokesman Barney Keller.

Nelson, one of the most conservative Democrats in the chamber, has been elected twice as governor and twice as a senator in Nebraska, a state that chose John McCain by 15 points in 2008 and George W. Bush by 33 points in 2004. Despite winning four times in the red-trending state, he has taken a beating from constituents recently, especially after he supported President Obama’s health care reform efforts.

The Republican primary is expected to be crowded, and one potential candidate, state Sen. Deb Fischer, shouldn’t be underestimated. She represents the western part of the state, where Republicans have a historical advantage.