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In Montana, Tester narrowly defeated Conrad Burns -- the only Republican elected to consecutive terms in that state’s history -- in 2006. But Burns had a lengthy history of making highly controversial statements, so his demise wasn’t entirely surprising. Tester’s 2012 opponent, Congressman Denny Rehberg, is a less controversial figure and is running in a better environment for Republicans. Rehberg has led in some polls, and having represented most of the state, he should give Tester a run for his money.

In Virginia, Webb’s unexpected victory in 2006 helped hand control of the Senate to Democrats. His decision not to run in 2012 could hand it back to the Republicans. On the GOP side, George Allen is seeking to reclaim his old seat, while on the Democratic side, former Gov. Tim Kaine is seeking the nod. Kaine’s star lost some luster during his term as DNC chair, but he still maintains a solid base of support in the state; this one should go down to the wire.

Wisconsin is one of the states where Obama’s persistent weakness among white voters could really hurt the party. Last year, liberal Democratic icon Russ Feingold lost to Republican businessman Ron Johnson. This year, Democrats seem likely to nominate Tammy Baldwin, who is every bit as liberal as Feingold was. On the Republican side, a faceoff between former Gov. Tommy Thompson and former Rep. Mark Neumann (who was something of a proto-Tea Partier) seems inevitable. Republicans haven’t held both seats from Wisconsin since the 1950s, but it could happen this year.

Leans GOP Pickup: Ben Nelson (Nebraska). Nelson has had a successful political career in the Cornhusker State, winning four statewide elections, including a massive win during the horrific Democratic year of 1994. But those victories were premised on a public perception of Nelson as a moderate-to-conservative Democrat. This perception was badly damaged during the 111th Congress, when Nelson’s vote was needed to pass the Democrats’ agenda. Both polls of the race -- from Democratic and Republican firms -- have shown Nelson under 40 percent, and his likely Republican opponent is above 50 percent. The senator is in dire straits.

Likely GOP Pickup: North Dakota (open; Kent Conrad is retiring). Congressman Rick Berg knocked off longtime Rep. Earl Pomeroy in 2010 by double digits. One imagines he’ll have an even easier time in an open-seat race, especially since Democrats have yet to find an opponent for him.