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FOREST HILLS, N.Y. -- In a cramped office space that serves as Democrat David Weprin's congressional campaign headquarters -- nestled between a local grocery mart and a Sovereign Bank branch just off Queens Boulevard -- a handful of local politicians gathered for a press conference Monday before dispatching an "army" of volunteers into the field to convince voters that their absence at the polls in today's special election could cost Democrats a seat they have held for almost a century.

Seven-term Rep. Joe Crowley introduced Weprin (pictured at right) to the crowd, calling the state assemblyman from a prominent Queens political family a “vetted and proven” candidate to replace the disgraced Rep. Anthony Weiner, who resigned in mid June after sending lewd pictures of himself to women over the Internet. But it’s clear from this election eve push to get out the vote that Weprin, who is trailing his Republican rival, Bob Turner, in a pair of recent public opinion polls, has a lot to prove.

The special election in this state's 9th Congressional District, which comprises parts of Brooklyn and Queens, was supposed to be an easy win for Democrats. After all, prominent New York Democrats like Sen. Chuck Schumer and onetime vice presidential candidate Geraldine Ferraro had held the seat long before Weiner took office in 1999. Democrats enjoy a near 3-to-1 registration advantage here and voters chose Barack Obama over John McCain in 2008 by 11 points.

But since then, voters appear to have soured on the president. A recent Siena Research poll found Obama with negative favorability ratings among voters, a majority of whom feel the country is headed in the wrong direction. That same Siena poll showed Weprin trailing by six points, and the closeness of this race has National Democrats worried: They spent half a million dollars on a broadcast ad buy that has been airing in New York’s expensive media market since Thursday. The Democratic House Majority PAC is running ads, too.

Feeding off Turner's momentum, Republicans have funneled tens of thousands of dollars into this race and framed the contest as a referendum on the president’s handling of the economy and his Israel policy. The Orthodox Jewish community in this district is among the largest in the country and the United States’ relationship with Israel has long been important to constituents here. Two prominent Democrats have crossed party lines to back Turner, citing their concerns about Obama’s support for a return to Israel’s pre-1967 borders. Though Turner is a Catholic and Weprin is an Orthodox Jew who disagrees with the president’s position on Israel, many in the Orthodox community fear the Democrat will subscribe to Obama’s policy.

At the get-out-the-vote rally Monday at his campaign quarters, Weprin argued he would a better ally to Israel, citing his eight visits to the region and maternal relatives who moved there a half-century ago. Then he pivoted away from the topic, defining the race on his own terms. “This election is really going to come down to the federal budget, and preserving our essential entitlement programs . . . Social Security and Medicare, and creating jobs for the middle class and small businesses,” he said. Weprin’s pledge to protect entitlements appeals to Democratic volunteer Chris Garrison, an unemployed district resident who breathes with aid of oxygen piped through a nasal cannula and relies on Medicaid. “David, I feel, is going to fight for [Medicaid]," he told RCP.

Weprin also spoke vaguely about his support for gun control and for women’s’ rights. But he let Crowley, who represents a neighboring district and chairs the Queens County Democratic Organization, do most of the talking. When asked how the president’s polling numbers influence the race, Crowley responded, “This isn’t about the president’s numbers; this is about David Weprin.” Indeed, Obama has been absent from Weprin’s campaign, though former President Bill Clinton and popular Gov. Andrew Cuomo have stepped in with robo-calls on the candidate's behalf.

The fact that big names have intervened on both sides in this special election is telling. A few blocks down the road from the Weprin office, and about an hour after the Democrat’s election push on Monday afternoon, Turner appeared at his own press conference outside the Forest Hills Railroad Station, accompanied by former Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who steered the conversation toward Israel and assailed the president's positions regarding Israel and the Palestinians.

"If this district votes for Bob Turner,” he told a small crowd of reporters after the press conference, “believe me, on Wednesday morning, the White House will be thinking about a new policy with regard to the state of Israel, because this would send a signal much stronger than just this district."