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Back in January, the surprising news that Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann was considering a White House run was generally greeted by the political press as a compelling sideshow rather than a potentially significant development in the presidential race.

After all, with just four years in Congress up to that point, Bachmann was perhaps best known for voicing her bewildering concern during a 2008 appearance on MSNBC that then-Sen. Barack Obama harbored "anti-American views." Bachmann was clearly an effective messenger for the right wing of her party, but a viable candidate in a national election? It seemed unlikely.

Juxtaposed against better-known, better-connected potential contenders like Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, South Dakota Sen. John Thune and Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, Bachmann wasn't given much of a chance of making real noise -- even in light of her fundraising capabilities and the proven electoral might of the tea party movement, with which Bachmann had closely aligned herself.

Six months later, it's a different story altogether. The three previously mentioned GOP heavyweights all decided against presidential runs, and candidates like former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman have thus far failed to catch on with voters. Meanwhile, many grass-roots conservatives continue to seek an alternative to the front-runner, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

Bachmann has bolted to the top in the last three polls in Iowa, and has built upon her highly praised debate performance last month to an even more surprising surge into second place in the first-in-the-nation primary state of New Hampshire.

All of this is great news for Bachmann and her campaign team, but the Minnesota congresswoman's early success also poses a significant new problem: Heading into next month's critical Ames Straw Poll in Iowa, her prospects in the nation's first voting state have moved from "fat chance" to "favorite," and anything less than a first-place showing will now be deemed a disappointment.

"It's all about timing and expectations, and normally with a caucus, you just organize, organize, organize, and then get hot at the end," Doug Gross, a currently unaffiliated Iowa GOP operative who plans to back a candidate eventually, told RCP. "In her case, there's not a lot of organization. She got hot early, so the question is: Can she sustain the flame? It might be tough."

Bachmann does have a robust and experienced staff working for her in Iowa, but her team got off to a slower start than some of her GOP rivals, particularly Pawlenty.

Like Bachmann, Pawlenty is competing hard to win in the Hawkeye State, but unlike his fellow Minnesotan, the former governor has thus far struggled to gain much traction in early polls. But Pawlenty's campaign team expresses confidence that their formidable infrastructure will pay off at the straw poll, and the candidate himself has highlighted his lackluster sixth-place showing in a recent Des Moines Register survey in hopes that he will be able to cite positive momentum when he needs it most.

Perhaps surprisingly, Bachmann has also highlighted her standing in the polls -- which is much more impressive than Pawlenty's -- without adding the obvious caveat that there is still half a year to go before caucus-goers have their say. "Today's new numbers reinforce the impact that our message of constitutional conservatism is having both in Iowa & around the nation," Bachmann wrote on her Facebook page Monday, linking to one of the recent Iowa surveys that show her overtaking Romney for first place in the state.