Could Rick Perry Surprise in New Hampshire?

Could Rick Perry Surprise in New Hampshire?

By Scott Conroy - July 8, 2011


MANCHESTER, N.H. -- The last time a brash Texan known for his cowboy persona moseyed on into this Yankee bastion, intent on winning the New Hampshire primary, the year was 2000 and George W. Bush was handed a resounding 19-point defeat at the hands of John McCain's straight talk.

Twelve years later, another Texas governor appears to have his sights set on the White House, and Rick Perry is not likely to be dissuaded by his predecessor's poor performance in the Granite State. Perry's strategy for winning the Republican nomination will likely include a strong showing in the first-in-the-nation primary.

"It's open for anybody," Perry's political guru, Dave Carney, who happens to be a New Hampshire resident, said of his home state. "If you're trying to convince people that you're the guy to compete against Obama, you have to play everywhere you can."

After months of denying any interest in the job, Perry is currently said to be weighing the feasibility of a late-entry presidential bid after he was persuaded that his candidacy would fill a gaping void in the GOP field.

Carney said that Perry has recently stepped up his regimen of nationwide phone calls to help gauge his prospects and is expecting an estimate from his finance team next week of how much money he could raise.

Though Carney still puts the chances of a Perry presidential bid at about even money, the three-term governor's inherent advantages as a tea party stalwart who also enjoys establishment credibility could make it difficult for him to say no.

Though Perry's status as the only top-tier southerner in the field would likely present an overall advantage to him, his Texas twang would -- at least in theory -- be a more difficult sell in the heart of Red Sox Nation. But his chief strategist didn't sound overly concerned that his New Hampshire neighbors would hold any cultural differences against his boss.

"Some of the southerners who've run campaigns here have run lousy campaigns," Carney said. "I don't think geography has anything to do with it."

The many factors that separate Dallas from Dover may indeed prove to be difficult for Perry to master, but a greater challenge might be the style of politicking that differentiates a state as large as Texas from one as small as New Hampshire.

New Hampshire GOP consultant Mike Dennehy, a senior political adviser to McCain's 2008 campaign, noted that successful New Hampshire candidates have to run "like it's a city council race" -- a scale of campaigning that Perry has not engaged in for decades. But Dennehy added that inherent regional disadvantages did not become a significant consideration during his brief stint working for Haley Barbour in New Hampshire earlier this year as the Mississippi governor weighed a presidential bid that he eventually decided against.

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Scott Conroy is a national political reporter for RealClearPolitics. He can be reached at sconroy@realclearpolitics.com.

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