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Obama vs. Romney · Electoral College Map · Battle for Senate · Battle for House · Generic Ballot · Election Calendar · Latest 2012 Polls |
Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann's stock is on the rise. Her performance in last Monday's presidential debate was almost universally heralded, and the continued lack of a strong challenger to front-runner Mitt Romney has helped vault her -- by default, in the view of many analysts -- into the top tier of GOP candidates.
Bachmann's ability to speak the language of the tea party, her proven fundraising prowess, and the geographical advantages that come with being a congresswoman from a neighboring state (and who also was born in Iowa) have heightened expectations that she could skyrocket to the top of the field in the nation's first caucus state.
But as Bachmann prepares to officially announce the start of her campaign Monday in her hometown of Waterloo, she will have to prove that her abilities as a newly minted national candidate are up to the hype and additional scrutiny that will now surround her every move.
"Congresswoman Bachmann needs to show a commitment to the caucus and primary process," Bob Haus, a prominent and unaligned Iowa Republican strategist, told RCP. "It's not just a good debate performance or an announcement that her supporters are looking for, they're looking for a sustained effort that moves her message."
According to her campaign team, Bachmann is about to make just such an effort, and not just in Iowa.
Following Monday's announcement, she will head directly to the next two states on the nominating calendar. She is scheduled to speak at a private function in New Hampshire on Tuesday before traveling to South Carolina, where she will appear at five events over the course of the following day-and-a-half.
Although Bachmann's first trip to the nation's first voting state as an official candidate will be a short one, RCP has learned that there are immediate plans to boost her presence there more visibly. She is scheduled to return to Iowa next Friday and will remain there through the Fourth of July weekend.
Bachmann's staff has also signed a lease for a building in Urbandale -- a suburb of Des Moines -- that will serve as her Iowa campaign headquarters.
Aides say that Bachmann will continue to make strides in the coming days and weeks toward putting together robust teams in each of the early voting states. Still, her initial emphasis on Iowa and South Carolina appears to be an acknowledgment that those two places are where her message would best resonate among the conservative voters who play a predominant role in each contest.
Iowa, in particular, is the state that poses her most critical challenge in the early going.
The Des Moines Register and other media outlets on Wednesday noted that Bachmann has lagged far behind other Republican candidates -- particularly former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty -- in Iowa visits and organizing in the state. But Bachmann aides pushed back against those reports and noted that her relatively light schedule over the past few weeks has been an intentional strategy to precede the impending push.
"She will be traveling the entire state, meeting Iowans on a regular basis, and I assure you, by the time it's said and done, everyone will see her who wants to see her," said Iowa state Sen. Kent Sorenson, who will chair Bachmann's campaign in Iowa.
With Pawlenty struggling to gain traction in the polls and Romney showing few signs of making a hard push in Iowa, Bachmann's opening to move to the front of the pack there is clear. But her window of opportunity may be fleeting, as Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin still threaten to seize upon the grass-roots energy still there for the taking and could be particularly well-positioned in Iowa if they were to enter the race.
Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad's communications director, Tim Albrecht, a close observer of how the race is shaping up on the ground in the Hawkeye State, said that Bachmann was "tremendously well-served" by her debate performance but noted that she has much to accomplish before positioning herself to compete effectively in the Ames Straw poll -- the first true test of early support in the state -- later this summer.
"Everyone knows where she stands on the Constitution and the social issues, so if she can pivot that into a broader message of jobs and the economy, she will begin to turn a lot of heads and rapidly pick up support," Albrecht said. "She will need to do the hard work, visiting not just Waterloo but Waukee and Winterset and West Branch in order to be successful. I think she is willing to do so, but she'll have to demonstrate that quickly in order to successfully compete in the straw poll in August."
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