
The first Republican primary debate of the 2012 cycle came and went without the presence of the field's tepid front-runner, Mitt Romney, but the former Massachusetts governor is about to engage in the presidential race for real.
On Thursday in Ann Arbor, Mich., Romney will lay out his plans for health care reform, according to his political team. And he'll make his first visit this year to Iowa on May 27, as the Des Moines Register first reported. Both appearances will be critical: Iowa and health care reform loom as clear obstacles in Romney's path to the GOP nomination.
The health care speech is billed primarily as a "plan to repeal and replace Obamacare."
Team Romney says their man will also discuss how to restore fiscal responsibility to the states, give tax deductions to people who buy their own health insurance, promote tort reform and "make health care more like a consumer market and less like a government program."
There's another important detail about the upcoming speech, which will be given at the University of Michigan's Cardiovascular Center. It falls on the same day that Cheri Daniels -- the wife of Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels -- will make her first big political address in Indianapolis.
It's been assumed for months that Mrs. Daniels is the last of the hurdles standing between the Hoosier and a presidential bid, and there has been eager anticipation of her speech since it was first announced a month ago. The expectation among the political class in Indianapolis is that the Daniels family will see how the speech is received before deciding on whether to enter the race.
For Romney, in particular, a Daniels candidacy could be a threat. Daniels has already been hailed in numerous quarters as the most serious of the candidates -- "the adult in the room," a distinction that was supposed to belong to Romney, or so his advisers hoped. By giving a speech the same day as Mrs. Daniels, Romney may be hoping to steal some of Daniels' thunder. Trying to smother headlines is nothing new to Romney's political team: When New England Democrats set out to tar Romney on the fifth anniversary of his signing of universal health care in Massachusetts, he tried to preempt the coverage by announcing the formation of his presidential exploratory committee.
Drawing the distinction between Massachusetts' "Romneycare" and the 2010 health care legislation Republicans invariably call "Obamacare" will not be something Romney can definitively handle in a single speech. But he and his advisers appear to have learned a lesson from their run four years ago, when Romney waited until late in the 2007-2008 cycle -- some said too late -- to tackle questions about his Mormon religion.
Later this month Romney plans to visit to Des Moines, which in itself is a potentially significant development. Speculation has abounded that Romney might skip the Iowa caucuses in his second quest to capture the GOP nomination -- the format is not ideal for him -- but merely by showing up in the state he may force his rivals to spend time and money there that they might otherwise hoard for New Hampshire or beyond.
Romney spent about $10 million in Iowa four years ago, only to come up short to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, a onetime Baptist preacher. And even though social conservatives have been making the most noise in Iowa of late, it's an open question whether Huckabee will run again -- or whether a different conservative candidate will stir evangelicals' heartstrings this time around.
Republican candidates can't exactly afford to skip Iowa, anyway: President Obama won the state in the 2008 general election, and it will likely be a swing state again.
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