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Romney Up Big in New Hampshire

By Scott Conroy

Mitt Romney's frontrunner status in the first-in-the-nation primary state of New Hampshire was backed up by a new poll released on Wednesday night, which showed the former Massachusetts governor maintaining a hefty lead over the rest of the prospective Republican presidential field.

Romney easily bested other potential White House contenders in the WMUR Granite State poll, which was conducted from April 15 through May 2 among 416 New Hampshire residents likely to vote in the semi-open primary, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percent.

Thirty-six percent of likely voters backed Romney, which was double the combined percentage of the second- and third-place finishers -- reality TV star Donald Trump (11 percent) and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (11 percent).

As a former governor of a neighboring state -- who finished in second place to eventual GOP nominee John McCain in the 2008 New Hampshire primary and maintains a home in the town of Wolfeboro on Lake Winnipesaukee -- Romney is widely familiar to the state's voters. And the near-universal name recognition of both Trump and Giuliani appeared to have contributed to their own strong showings in the poll.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Texas Rep. Ron Paul shared fourth place and 6 percent of the vote in the poll. Meanwhile, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich -- both household names in their own right -- each came in at only 4 percent.

Romney has maintained a sizable advantage in other early polls in New Hampshire -- a state that is shaping up to be the cornerstone of his electoral strategy, as he positions himself as an economic problem-solver who can appeal to New Hampshire's fiscally conservative but socially moderate electorate.

The most surprising finding of the poll may have been the lack of early traction for former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who has built a robust New Hampshire campaign apparatus and has visited the state several times over the last few months but only managed a meager 2 percent in the WMUR poll.

Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, another frequent visitor to New Hampshire in the early going, came in at only 1 percent. But once voters start paying closer attention to the still-developing race, Pawlenty and Santorum may be better able to utilize the early groundwork that they have laid in the state.

Only 5 percent of those polled said that they had definitely decided whom they would vote for in next year's primary, leaving plenty of room for the wide-open race to take the kinds of twists and turns that New Hampshire political observers expect.

A likely candidate to watch in the coming weeks will be former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, who managed less than 1 percent of the vote in the WMUR poll but is scheduled to deliver a commencement address and attend political events in the state later this month.

Huntsman and his team of advisers are preparing for a campaign that will put a premium on winning -- or at least exceeding expectations -- in New Hampshire.

Scott Conroy is a national political reporter for RealClearPolitics. He can be reached at sconroy@realclearpolitics.com.

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