
DES MOINES, Iowa -- Mitt Romney placed a respectable second in the 2008 Iowa presidential caucuses and still polls at the highest tier here in most of the recent surveys of the 2012 GOP field.
The former Massachusetts governor spent roughly $10 million for his self-described "silver medal" in the Hawkeye State last time, and the business consultant who knows how to manage funds is smart enough not to leave money on the table. That's why it's premature to say he won't compete for the some of the voters he won over last time again in next year's Iowa caucuses. Romney's goal in the 2012 presidential race is to exceed the current low expectations set for him in Iowa, while repairing some of the negative impressions he left here three years ago.
For those who are waiting breathlessly for the marginally front-running Romney to engage, fear not. Republican activists keyed into Romney's operation say he has been invited to two large fundraising events in this state in the coming months and said it's rumored that an event could be on the books soon. Apparently, he's coming, although one Romney adviser cautioned that it might be June before anything is planned officially -- and added that it's unlikely he'll make it to the state before officially entering the race.
As for the buzz that so many of Romney's former team members in Iowa are falling away from him and hitching up with other candidates, Romney apparently has been quietly tapping Republican aides for a second presidential effort, but they aren't on a Romney payroll just yet.
That doesn't mean Romney will go all out to win the state, but he will battle enough to keep the other campaigns aware of his presence. Otherwise, as one high-profile Iowa Republican suggested, Jon Huntsman could simply "plant a flag" in the state to exploit a potential Romney absence here and lap up some of his previous support.
In one sign pointing to the logic of not ignoring Iowa, several of the state's most influential Republicans were noticeably absent from Saturday's Conservative Principles Conference hosted by Rep. Steve King. Already some of Iowa's GOP leaders have begun to tire with the string of events catering to social conservatives that have dominated the first few months of the year here. Privately, these Republicans say there's a hunger in the donor community and the business community for a focus on the economic issues dominating the national dialogue. Romney is one of several likely candidates who could fill that void.
Indeed, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour surprised some by sticking to his traditional stump speech and hewing closely to economic issues at King's confab. Romney did not attend, but King said in an interview that he invited him and was satisfied with his answer, which centered on scheduling conflicts. King also invited Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, who seems less certain of a candidate than Romney, but who is also focused on fiscal and economic issues.
Still, the field is far from settled, and it's hard to tell how much the concerns of the religious right will affect the process. Paradoxically, Mike Huckabee's victory here in 2008 may end up helping the economic conservatives: The success of the former Arkansas governor and Baptist preacher seems to have inspired the candidacies of a host of second- and third-tier social conservatives -- who may divide up the old Huckabee coalition and thus elevate a more moderate and business-oriented candidate.
Moreover, the strength of religious conservatives in Iowa, while formidable, may be somewhat overstated.
To be specific, add Romney's 2008 results in Iowa (about 30,000 votes, or 25.2 percent) to Arizona Sen. John McCain's (about 15,500 votes, or 13 percent) to former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson's (16,000 votes or 13.4 percent) to former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani's (4000 votes or 3.4 percent), and the total is about 55 percent of the votes. Texas Rep. Ron Paul garnered a tenth of the votes. Compare that to winning Mike Huckabee's winning share of some 41,000 votes, 34.4 percent of the vote.
Huckabee has had an outsize influence on the state ever since, but some of it seems to take on the stuff of myth. Ask local GOP activists who won the famed Ames straw poll in 2007, and they'll likely tell you it was Huckabee - even though the victory actually belonged to Romney. Huckabee's surprise strong second-place showing in the straw poll lent itself to a surge by the Arkansan, leading some national Romney advisers to argue they should have declared victory in Iowa for the straw poll victory and pull out of the state. This time, the competition in Iowa may not get serious until after the straw poll, which may mainly serve to weed out some of the weaklings.
Turnout is expected to surge in next year's caucuses over 2008, although it remains to be seen where the added support will come from - and if the added voters will come from the far right. But given the composition of the electorate three years ago, there may well be a place for a fiscally friendly candidate - even in the heartland.
Romney has the potential to keep his own support intact, but it's hard to tell how Huntsman, Barbour, Daniels, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty will cut into it - especially because the Minnesotan is working hard to grab some of Romney's support while also trying to blend a coalition that includes some of Huckabee's past supporters as well as McCain's.
For Romney, though, expectations in Iowa are low in part because some influential activists came away with an unfavorable impression of him last time that won't easily be undone. The palpable skepticism for Romney here is a hurdle he will have to overcome. Last cycle, Romney turned off one influential Republican leader here who places a premium on fiscal issues. Romney broke the rules set by the activist's organization at an appearance he made here, upset the staff and didn't offer his gratitude to the hosts - even as all of the other candidates in the race thanked the organization's employees profusely.
As this Republican activist put it on the condition of anonymity, "He doesn't think the same rules apply to him, and he acts too privileged."
Dave Funk, the co-chair of the Des Moines-centric Polk County Republican Party, said that this time around, he has not seen any of Romney's efforts in the state. Referring to Romney's campaign message from last time, Funk added, "He's been all over the map, and that's going to continue to hurt him here in Iowa again this time."
Doug Gross, who chaired Romney's 2008 effort in Iowa, offered a similar assessment but suggested that Romney is still formidable in the grand scheme of the race. He considers Mitch Daniels the wildcard and suggested a possible entry into the presidential race by the popular Hoosier governor could shake up the structure of the field.
Still, Gross reminded, "The race hasn't started yet."
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