Former Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean said on Wednesday that the demographics of the 2010 midterm electorate were much "older" and "whiter" than what was seen in 2008 and added that he expected President Obama to benefit from a larger pool of voters in 2012 that would be younger and more diverse.
"I think it's likely that the president will win re-election as a result, perhaps not with the same large number of states," Dean said at a breakfast meeting with reporters hosted by the Christian Science Monitor.
In breaking down Obama's chances in individual swing states that turned blue in 2008, the former Vermont governor and 2004 presidential candidate said that he expected Indiana would be difficult for the president to win and that North Carolina would be "very tough."
But Dean was particularly bullish about Obama's chances of carrying Virginia for a second time after defeating Republican nominee John McCain there by 6 percent in 2008.
"When you consider how big the president's margin was in Virginia in 2008, again barring some huge screw-up, or events we can't know anything about now, all things being equal, if the election were held six months from now, I think the president would win in a presidential campaign in Virginia, and I think probably maybe by a bigger margin than he did the last time."
Dean noted that as DNC chairman, he created a strategy by which the Democratic nominee could win the presidency without winning Ohio and Florida - one that relied on a string of victories in western states, including Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and potentially Arizona.
Dean said that former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney would be a particularly strong challenger to Obama in a general election but did not expect him to win the Republican nomination, citing his universal health care overhaul in Massachusetts - which remains unpopular among Republicans - and his Mormon faith as being particularly damaging handicaps among significant segments of the GOP primary electorate.
On the day when 85 new Republican members of Congress were being sworn into power, Dean said that the grassroots conservative movement would continue to play an important role in 2012. Though he said that he believed the tea party's foundation was based on economic principles, Dean was also blunt in his assessment of the mentality that he said pervaded its ranks.
"I think it's a group of older folks who've seen their lives change dramatically - the country's not the same," Dean said. "Every morning when they see the president, they're reminded that things are totally different than they were when they were born, and I think that has a lot to do with it. It's not just the economy. The economy and the economic uncertainty fuels all of this, but this is the last gasp of a generation that has trouble with diversity, and the new generation doesn't."
Dean said that it would be "incredibly unlikely" and "foolish" for a Democrat to run against President Obama in 2012 and again ruled out the idea that he might consider a primary challenge to the president.
"I certainly wouldn't entertain it, and I hope that nobody would," Dean said. "Historically, challengers to incumbent presidents of either party don't win, and they weaken their president."
Dean's name had been floated as a possible primary challenger to Obama in some progressive circles. But although Dean was an emphatic opponent of the health care reform law and has publicly disagreed with Obama on other issues, his support for the president's re-election bid was emphatic as he echoed his office's previous statement that he had no interest in challenging Obama.
"Barack Obama is the best chance that we have of holding onto the White House in 2012, and I intend to support him," Dean said.