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PHOENIX, Ariz. -- President Obama and Vice President Biden made a concerted effort to show up in Arizona multiple times in 2009 following the scare they gave Republican Sen. John McCain in the final days of the 2008 presidential race that he could lose even his home state.

The state Democratic Party started buzzing with excitement last summer that the Grand Canyon State would morph into the next big swing state with its 10 electoral votes, and that it could have 11 or 12 electoral votes to offer the president's re-election effort after the upcoming redistricting process.

But that was last year, before Republican Gov. Jan Brewer signed a controversial immigration law -- known as SB 1070 here in Arizona -- that drew a lawsuit from Obama's administration. The law includes tough provisions allowing law enforcement officers to question possible illegal immigrants about their status; duplication efforts are now under way in other states.

"1070 changed everything," said Arizona Democratic Party spokeswoman Jennifer Johnson.

"It changed the races here from top to bottom," she said. "It changed the way our electorate thinks about the federal government. And to an extent, it changed the way the national Democratic Party feels about us."

National political strategists from both sides of the aisle agree that if McCain had not been the GOP's presidential nominee in the last election, the Republican Party would have been in real danger of losing Arizona's electoral votes at a time when the rest of the Intermountain West broke decisively for Obama. McCain won the state, 54 percent to 45 percent.

Now, strategists on both sides of the aisle are divided about Arizona's swing-state potential in the next presidential cycle. In some cases, Republican strategists are more nervous about holding onto the state than Democrats are hopeful that they can take it over given its rapidly changing demographic trends. In Washington, Democratic strategists at the party headquarters are taking a wait-and-see approach to Arizona's potential.

Already this year, the Democratic National Committee crossed Phoenix off of its short list of possible cities to host the 2012 Democratic presidential nominating convention.

Luis Heredia, the executive director of the state party, explained, "I think the landscape is different than a year ago."

He added, "There are elements in Arizona that make it attractive to become a swing state. There is a rising tide of independents."

Republicans enjoy a slim registration advantage, but the Hispanic population here continues to grow, and that dynamic has thrown the state's politics into flux in recent years.

According to registration data in Arizona, as of late August, the state had 3.1 million registered voters. Of those, 1.1 million were registered Republicans, 1 million were registered Democrats and 953,000 were independents. Democratic strategists believe the level of independents may overtake the number of registered Democrats in short order.

The state's population has exploded in the last decade, gaining more than 28 percent since 2000 according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Political strategists in the state expect that Arizona will gain at least one and perhaps as many as three congressional seats.

Hispanic residents comprise at least 30 percent of the population, according to the same census figures, and political strategists on both sides of the aisle said Hispanic voting trends will be a key data point for the parties headed into 2012.

Complicating factors are that population growth has stalled in the last two years and Arizona has one of the highest foreclosure rates in the nation. The impact of the immigration law and the state's economic dynamics have left Republicans divided about whether or not Democrats will be able to contest the state in upcoming statewide elections.

"I think that they have to play here," said Ryan Williams, a Republican National Committee regional victory director currently based in Scottsdale.

"It would be foolish of Republicans to think that Democrats will cede the state," he said.

But Arizona Republican Party Brett Mecum dismissed the possibility that Democrats stand a chance at the statewide level two years from now.

"It's more likely that Arizona is undergoing a long-term realignment in favor of the Republican Party," he said.

Veteran Arizona Democratic strategist David Waid conceded that the state has fallen off the radar screen temporarily as a potential pickup for Obama due to a combination of issues, including immigration, the economy and health care.

"The starting square for Arizona is not in the tossup space," he said, adding, "That can and may change."

Waid warned, "This is not a state in which safe bets are safely made." He pointed out that neither party has had a monopoly on electoral success in the past decade.

Waid expects 2010 to be a strong year for Republicans in Arizona but said Democrats who have distanced themselves successfully from Washington Democrats may stand a chance.

Five of the state's eight congressional races are competitive, including several Democratic strongholds and one usually safe Republican seat.

Waid is advising attorney Jon Hulburd, a Democrat giving Republican attorney Ben Quayle a difficult race in the heavily Republican exurbs here, and he said Hulburd's support for the immigration law and President Bush's tax cuts have helped.

Of course, Hulburd's pathway to victory may not be a preview for Obama. The president's approval rating fell to 39 percent in a Rasmussen poll of 500 likely voters with a margin of error of 4.5 percent that was conducted on July 29.

Democratic Rep. Harry Mitchell represents another GOP-leaning Phoenix area district near the one Hulburd is trying to win. Asked in an interview if he thought Obama had a chance to win Arizona's electoral votes in 2012, Mitchell responded, "I have no clue. It's a Republican state."

The two-term congressman has been distancing himself from the president and his party's leadership while stressing his independent credentials in his Republican leaning district.

He went on to say that he doesn't know what Obama's strengths will be two years from now or what the electoral strategy will look like, but he said he has not heard a peep from the national party about Obama's potential political plans for Arizona.

"I would not fathom telling the president about campaigning in Arizona," Mitchell said. "He's got his own apparatus, his own advisers."

While Obama's Arizona prospects may look weaker now than they did last year, Heredia said Republican Sen. Jon Kyl, who is on the 2012 ballot, "is always a target." He listed Democratic Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick and Gabby Giffords as potential opponents if they are re-elected to their House seats this year, and added longtime Democratic fundraiser Nan Walden to the list.

But, said the Republican Mecum, "Other than Giffords, they don't have a farm team. We're about to wipe it out."