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SharePolitical Climate May Trump Paul's Persona in KY
Political Climate May Trump Paul's Persona in KY
CARROLLTON, Ky. - Business is slow for Linda Goodwin, who owns Another Place Sandwich Shop with her husband James on South 7th Street in downtown Louisville. Her customers have told her that since they no longer have the expendable income to go out to eat as often as they once did, many of them are now bringing their lunch to work.
"We've been here 30 years, and we're in the worst shape we've ever been in," Goodwin said.
An independent voter, Goodwin was hopeful when President Obama took office, but she doesn't think that Obama has accomplished what he promised he would.
When Goodwin received a call last week from one of the state's Senate campaigns asking how she would vote, she answered that she was leaning heavily toward Republican Rand Paul over Democrat Jack Conway.
"My husband wasn't very happy with me," she said, because he is a Democrat.
Goodwin does not like Conway, Kentucky's attorney general, but for her, the Senate race has at least as much to do with the president.
She has noticed the White House staff turnover less than two years into Obama's administration, a trend that may seem part of the normal ebb and flow in official Washington, but one that suggests administrative chaos to her.
"All of his top economic people are leaving him," Goodwin said. "Nobody's sticking with him."
Goodwin said that she has been paying closer attention to this year's Senate contest than any other statewide race in her lifetime, but many of the women she knows have not been as engrossed in it as she has. She doubts that her sisters know the names of the candidates.
"I probably won't vote," said Goodwin's 23-year-old son, Brian, who cast his ballot for Obama in 2008 because he liked the idea of a younger politician being in charge. "Politics is too dramatic for me."
At Hometown Pizza in Carrollton, located about an hour north of Louisville on I-71, human resources consultant John Schulten said that he has been paying closer attention to the race than many of his friends have, but he still has no plans to watch Sunday morning's debate between Paul and Conway in Louisville. The debate will be moderated by Chris Wallace and carried live nationally by Fox News.
In 2008, Schulten volunteered for Obama in Kentucky, phone banking for his campaign until it became abundantly clear that the Democrat had no shot of carrying the state.
"Rand Paul is too radical for this state," Schulten said of the tea party-backed ophthalmologist and political newcomer. "He scares me. This whole tea party movement scares me. It's like a headless monster. It has all this energy, but it doesn't have central leadership."
Schulten thinks that Obama has done a great job so far in office, but he knows that his positive take on the president is a minority opinion in Kentucky.
In a Rasmussen Reports poll released on Thursday, Paul held an 11 percent lead over Conway among likely voters and led by 20 percent among independents. Other recent polls have shown the race to be closer, but it is clear that Conway's Democratic affiliation has been a severe hindrance to his chances of pulling off the upset.
The Conway campaign's strategy in Sunday's debate and in the last month of the campaign will be the same as it has been since the general election began: attack Paul relentlessly and try to win each day's news cycle by exploiting any opportunities the Republican inadvertently offers.
Conway's latest TV ad is emblematic of that strategy, as it highlights Paul's 2009 statement in which he proposed a $2,000 Medicare deductible. The ad features a befuddled man looking into the camera and saying, "I don't know what planet he's from" before cutting to a woman who describes Paul as "off the wall."
The Conway ad appears to have resonated with Rene Kendall, a state employee at the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet who intends to vote for Conway.
"There are things I don't like about Conway, but I don't agree with Paul, especially on Medicare," she said, shaking her head.
Kendall's husband, Butch, is a registered Democrat but a conservative, and he's voting for Paul. "I don't agree with Mr. Conway at all. That cap and trade is nonsense," he said. "No candidate is going to be perfect. Everybody has flaws," he added, referring to the way Paul's been characterized in the race.
Asked to preview the Democrat's strategy in Sunday's debate, spokesperson John Collins indicated that Conway would throw everything he had at Paul to keep the attention focused on the Republican, whom Conway has portrayed as disconnected from the state and oblivious to local issues.
"Voters will see a clear choice -- between Jack Conway's proven record of holding people accountable and standing up for Kentucky families -- and Rand Paul, who doesn't understand Kentucky and doesn't share our values," Collins said.
Meanwhile, the biggest risk for Paul may be committing another one of the unforced errors that he has made through controversial statements in the past few months. Paul campaign manager Jesse Benton said that his candidate was reading through potential questions and studying old debates.
"Of course with campaigning hard and running his medical practice, there are only so many hours in the day," Benton said. "Rand is not a career politician and Conway is a slick, East Coast educated trial lawyer, so with a double digit lead, our goal is to just hold our own."
Back at Another Place in Louisville, employee Kay Barfield said that she still hadn't decided who would receive her vote, but she was sure about at least one thing.
"It's the most interesting race we've ever had in Kentucky," she said.
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