It's been a rough year for Democrats, but there has been one recent ray of sunshine for the party: Barbara Boxer's polling numbers. Boxer spent most of the cycle around 45 percent in the RCP Average, and by mid-August had dropped to 43.8 percent. Her numbers recovered in September but so did her opponent's -- at one point Fiorina was within .3 points of Boxer in the RCP Average. This is very, very dangerous territory for any incumbent.
But around that time, the trend in the race reversed itself, and Boxer began to pull away. Her lead has now grown to 6.9 points in the RCP Average. Most polls are even showing her lead outside the error margin.
But even this bit of good news for Democrats comes with a caveat. Boxer's lead coincides with her going up on the airwaves in mid-September -- and her numbers haven't improved so much as Fiorina's have declined. A similar phenomenon occurred in Washington State, where Dino Rossi's numbers now seem to have turned around a bit now that he is also on the air. Fiorina went on the air last week; it remains to be seen whether the same phenomenon manifests itself in California.
Sean Trende is Senior Elections Analyst for RealClearPolitics. He can be reached at strende@realclearpolitics.com.