More Election News

• NH-2: Bass Tries to Convince Voters He's Serious About Tackling Deficit
• TX: Race Goes National as Parties Eye Long-Term Gains
• LA: Melancon Ad Seeks to Revive Vitter Scandals
• CT: As Race Tightens, Wrestling Becomes a Campaign Issue
• MI-1: Race for Stupak Seat Gets Nasty
• CA: Lawyer Alleges Whitman Knowingly Employed Illegal Housekeeper
• OH: White Men Could Be Election's Wild Card
• TX-17: Flores Banks on Outsider Status in Race Against Edwards
• AK: The Incumbent Emerges as the Dark Horse
• GA: Barnes' Legal Record Scrutinized
• IL: National Democrats Still Spending for Giannoulias
• Dems Face Tough Calls on Ad Spending
• CO: Determined Tancredo Continues Race as Maes Fades

Lots of ground to cover today, with hot polls in WV and CT, and a bevy of Fox News polls using Rasmussen Reports' "Pulse" software.  We'll do Senate races today and House and governor races tomorrow morning.

SENATE

West Virginia --See my writeup here.  Manchin's problem is that they like him as governor, they don't want another vote for the Obama administration in the Senate, and there's a way to have both.  See also Kerry/Weld '96, Koch/Cuomo '82, Nelson/Hagel '96.

Connecticut -- There's little doubt that Linda McMahon is closing the gap with Democratic Attorney General Richard Blumenthal in Connecticut.  Rasmussen Reports shows Blumenthal with a 50 percent to 45 percent lead over McMahon, while Quinnipiac shows a closer 49/46 percent lead for Blumenthal.  The latter indicates a narrowing from a 51-45 lead a week ago, while the former shows a narrowing from a 53/44 lead.

If there are enough undecideds for McMahon to get to 50 percent, Blumenthal's level of danger increases significantly.  He's still the favorite -- and since both he and the president sport net-positive favorability ratings, he should be able to win -- but not by much.

Washington --  FoxNews/Rasmussen reports that the Washington Senate race may not be getting away from Dino Rossi as much as some had previously thought.  The last two polls have both shown a tighter race than CNN/Time or the Elway Poll found, so either the effect of Murray's advertising blitz is wearing off, or we're just getting some different results from different methodologies.  Murray leads by 5.3 points in the RCP Average.

Illinois -- FoxNews/Rasmussen finds what pretty much everyone else who has taken a look at this race has found -- a slight lead for Republican Mark Kirk.  They've also found an awful lot of undecideds, like everyone else.  Seemingly, the state is trying to figure out which candidate they will hold their nose and vote for.  The President is at a 46-46 approval split in the land of Lincoln, and the voters split on repeal of the health care law 45-45, so it's easy to see this staying close until the end.  Kirk leads by 1.6 points in the RCP Average.

Wisconsin -- FoxNews/Rasmussen likewise confirms that Russ Feingold (D) is in deep, deep trouble in the Badger State.  He's arguably the most liberal member of the Senate, so it shouldn't be too surprising that he's doing poorly in this swing state.  He trails Ron Johnson 52 percent to 44 percent, which is basically what he's polled all cycle.  Johnson leads by 8.4 points in the RCP Average.  Fifty-one percent disapprove of the president's performance, and majorities back repealing the health care law.  It's increasingly difficult to see how Feingold pulls this one out.

New York -- Marist weighs in on the Senate race here, and finds Kirsten Gillibrand (D) leading Joe DioGuardi 52 percent to 41 percent.  But Gillibrand's approval ratings are a tepid 27 percent good/excellent, 56 percent fair/poor.  But among those who are "very enthusiastic" about voting, DioGuardi leads, 52 percent to 43 percent. Gillibrand is in the lead, but DioGuardi is in the game.  Gillibrand leads by 10.8 points in the RCP Average.

Colorado -- FoxNews/Rasmussen shows, like pretty much everyone else that's polled here recently, a modest lead for Republican Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck over Democratic Senator Michael Bennet.  This race has pretty much been stuck in neutral since the primary, with Buck leading Bennet 45 percent to 43 percent in the RCP Average. 

New Hampshire -- ARG breaks no new ground with its poll showing Kelly Ayotte up 14 points over Democratic Congressman Paul Hodes.  Ayotte leads by 8.3 points in the RCP Average.

Pennsylvania -- Three pollsters, Magellen Strategies (R), Morning Call, and Suffolk, looked at the PA Senate race, and came up with roughly the same conclusion -- Pat Toomey is up by about seven points or so.  None of these pollsters has been in the field recently, so it is hard to spot any trends.  But Toomey's inability to get above 50 percent should be a cause of some alarm, although Sestak's been on the air for a while now and hasn't moved things all that much.  Toomey leads by 6.3 points in the RCP Average.

Leftovers

Ohio, FoxNews/Rasmussen, Portman (R) 50 percent, Fisher (D) 37 percent

South Carolina, Rasmussen Reports, DeMint (R) 64 percent, Greene (D) 21 percent

Georgia, Rasmussen Reports, Isakson (R) 52 percent, Thurmond (D) 36 percent

Oklahoma, Rasmussen Reports, Coburn (R) 68 percent, Rogers (D) 26 percent

Iowa, Des Moines Register, Grassley (R) 61 percent, Conlin (D) 30 percent

New York (Schumer), Marist, Schumer (D) 58 percent, Townsend (R) 37 percent